Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the ocean and polar commons baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Biodiversity
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 POL
    6. 2.6 Trade
    7. 2.7 Minerals
    8. 2.8 Infrastructure
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.

Figure 2.1Rate of global mean sea level rise, mm a year
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2016 to 2025 average4.1
1993 to 2002 average2.1

Source: WMO5. The NASA page gives 4.4 mm a year for the current rate6; the two use different periods.

Implication

Sea level responds to ocean heat and ice loss over decades. A faster rate means coastal exposure grows even if emissions fall, and it ties the ice, ocean and coastal systems into one chain56.

What would move it

The next WMO report, the NASA record and the Greenland and Antarctic mass series would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Arctic sea ice reached the lowest annual winter maximum in the 47-year satellite record in March 2025, and the September 2025 minimum of 4.60 million km² on 10 September was the tenth lowest.13

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Arctic surface air temperatures from October 2024 to September 2025 were the warmest recorded since 1900, the last ten years are the ten warmest, and warming since 2006 has been more than twice the global rate.34

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    The Greenland ice sheet lost an estimated 129 billion tons of ice in 2025, below the 2003 to 2024 annual average of 219 billion tons, and continued its long-term net loss.3

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.56

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    Seven of nine planetary boundaries are assessed as breached in 2025, and ocean acidification was judged breached for the first time, with surface ocean pH down about 0.1 units since the industrial era.10

2.3Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-005

    NOAA confirmed a fourth global coral bleaching event in April 2024, and the 2025 Global Tipping Points Report judges that warm-water reefs are passing their thermal tipping point, with a central estimate of 1.2 °C and a range of 1 to 1.5 °C.89

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    FAO reports that 62.4% of assessed fish stocks were biologically sustainable in its 2026 edition, down from 64.5% two years earlier, and that 72.6% of landings came from sustainable stocks.2122

2.5POL

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-008

    The high seas treaty entered into force on 17 January 2026 with 105 parties at the time of reading, and the high seas are 61% of the ocean with 1.45% covered by protected areas.1116

2.6Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-009

    The WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies entered into force on 15 September 2025 and 123 members had accepted it by the last date shown on the WTO page.12

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-010

    The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee voted 57 to 49, with 21 abstentions, in October 2025 to adjourn for one year its session on the net-zero framework for shipping.41

2.7Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-011

    Deep seabed exploitation rules were still under negotiation at the International Seabed Authority in 2026, and in August 2026 NOAA reported that one United States application for commercial recovery in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone was in full compliance with the information requirements of its statute.4215

2.8Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-012

    ESA reports that its space environment health index rose from about 4 to about 50 in one year, and that more than 4,000 new payloads reached orbit in 2025 on more than 300 launches.17

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357enback
  11. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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