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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Common causes
    2. 8.2 Domino effects
    3. 8.3 Inter-systemic feedbacks
    4. 8.4 Shared vulnerabilities
    5. 8.5 Thresholds and tipping
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike many shared spaces at once: warming, emissions or fishing pressure. The shared cause matters more than the space.

1.2°C

reef thermal tipping point, central estimate9

7of 9

planetary boundaries breached10

0.1pH units

fall in surface ocean pH since the industrial era10

Table 8.1Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
WarmingArctic air at its highest since 1900; reefs passing a threshold39Reported
Ocean chemistryacidification boundary breached for the first time10Reported
Fishing pressure62.4% of assessed stocks sustainable21Reported
Marine heat eventsfourth global bleaching event confirmed in 20248Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • CLI → BIO warming
  • CLI → BIO acidification
  • FOO → BIO fishing pressure

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • common cause tagging of ocean events
  • frequency of concurrent heat and acidification events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Domino effects

A change in one space removes a buffer for the next. Ice loss raises seas, and reef loss removes coastal protection and fish habitat.

129billion tons

Greenland ice loss in 20253

115.2mm

sea level rise since 19936

4.1mm a year

sea level rate, 2016 to 20255

Table 8.2Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Ice to sea levelice sheet loss and ocean warming raise sea level356Reported
Sea level to coastshigher base for storm surge on low coasts6Inferred
Reef loss to fishreef habitat supports fish; loss lowers supply921Inferred
Ice loss to ocean circulationfreshwater input is a studied pathway33Inferred

Pathways in this mechanism

  • CLI → INF → FIN
  • CLI → BIO → FOO
  • CLI → CLI ice to ocean

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • timing of coastal impacts by region
  • reef-to-fish supply links

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Shared spaces also act back on the systems around them. Ice loss reduces reflection of sunlight, and ocean warming feeds more of the energy imbalance.

2times

Arctic warming since 2006 against the global rate (more than)3

>95%

fall in Arctic sea ice older than four years since the 1980s4

90%

of the energy imbalance goes into the ocean (over)5

Table 8.3Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Ice-albedoless ice means more sunlight absorbed34Inferred
Ocean heat uptakeocean takes most of the excess energy5Reported
Carbon uptakeocean takes up carbon and acidifies10Reported
Rain on icerecord precipitation in the Arctic report year3Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • CLI → CLI ice-albedo
  • CLI → BIO acidification
  • ENE → CLI emissions

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ocean heat content in physical units
  • strength of regional feedbacks

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different spaces share the same weak points: thin protection, thin data, rules that lag practice and a few crowded orbits and routes.

1.45%

of the high seas covered by protected areas16

61%

of the ocean lies beyond national jurisdiction16

50index points

ESA space environment health index, up from about 417

Table 8.4Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
High seastreaty in force; little area protected1116Reported
Seabedinternational rules open; a national review proceeds4215Reported
Orbitlaunch growth and debris raise collision risk17Reported
Dataprotection and activity data thin16Expert input

Pathways in this mechanism

  • POL → BIO
  • MIN → BIO
  • INF → INF orbit

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • effective protection data
  • activity at sea on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Reef thermal limits and treaty entry into force are thresholds of different kinds.

>99%

probability reefs tip at 1.5 °C of warming (virtually certain)9

17January 2026

high seas treaty entered into force11

57–49vote

IMO adjournment of the net-zero framework41

Table 8.5Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Reef thermal limitpassing a threshold at about 1.2 °C central estimate9Estimated
Planetary boundaryocean acidification newly beyond its boundary10Reported
Treaty thresholdsixty ratifications led to entry into force11Reported
Rule thresholdtwo-thirds acceptance brought subsidy rules into force12Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • CLI → BIO thresholds
  • POL → BIO treaty thresholds
  • TRD → FOO rules in force

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • thresholds for ice sheets and ocean circulation
  • rule thresholds still open

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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