References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Shared spaces change together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.142 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
- 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
- 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
- 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, second extraordinary session, adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework by 57 votes to 49 on 17 October 2025; reconvening due October 2026 (as reported by a trade news service). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 14POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; full compliance with information requirements; comment period to 19 October 2026). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 5, chapter 6
- 19International Court of Justice (ed.), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 (case page; documents listed; holdings not read). ICJ, The Hague. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 20International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ed.), Request for an advisory opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, Case No. 31, advisory opinion of 21 May 2024 (case page; unanimous; holdings not read). ITLOS, Hamburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357en Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), cited from memory; the UN status page returned no data. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (1991), cited from memory. Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, Buenos Aires. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), cited from memory. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen (1920), cited from memory. Observation year 1920. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ilulissat Declaration, Arctic Ocean Conference, 2008, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, cited from memory; the IPCC page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution, session records for August 2025 and February 2026, taken from search-result summaries (no agreement in August 2025; one-day procedural session on 7 February 2026 elected a new chair); the UNEP page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, eadh2458, 2023, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hardin, G., The tragedy of the commons, Science 162, 1243 to 1248, 1968, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990, cited from memory. Observation year 1990. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sala, E. et al., Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate, Nature 592, 397 to 402, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4, December 2022 (Target 3 on protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030), cited from memory. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, resolution MEPC.377(80), July 2023, cited from memory; no figure used. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-12
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 ocean and polar commons edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR-12 | NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-STR-SR-12-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- SR-12 edition Reports Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-12 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |