Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the ocean and polar commons baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes: warming drives ice loss, sea level, reef stress and acidification together.³⁶⁹¹⁰

   Do commons change from common causes?Reported

2. Through ice loss to sea level, and through heat and carbon to reefs and fish.⁵⁶⁹

   How do changes spread?Reported

3. Air temperature in the 2025 report year was the highest since 1900.³

   Is the Arctic changing fast?Reported

4. About 4.4 mm a year, nearly double the early satellite rate.⁵⁶

   How fast is sea level rising?Reported

5. About 62% of assessed stocks are; 73% of landings come from them.²¹

   Are fish stocks sustainable?Reported

6. About 1.45% is covered; the treaty is in force.¹¹¹⁶

   Is the high seas protected?Reported

7. Some entered into force; others were adjourned or are unfinished.¹²⁴¹¹⁵

   Do rules keep pace?Reported

8. Whether treaty rules start to change protection on the high seas. SCN-SR12-HSP-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.

Sea level responds to ocean heat and ice loss over decades. A faster rate means coastal exposure grows even if emissions fall, and it ties the ice, ocean and coastal systems into one chain⁵⁶.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is ocean and polar commons risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry ocean and polar commons shocks into other systems?
• Which ocean and polar commons capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The ocean and polar commons-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their ocean and polar commons content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → BIO → FOO

   Warming and acidification stress reefs and the habitats that support fish.

   Reported reef and planetary boundary reports⁹¹⁰

2. 02

   CLI → INF

   Ice loss and ocean warming raise sea level and coastal exposure.

   Reported sea level record⁵⁶

3. 03

   TRD → BIO

   Subsidy and shipping rules shape fishing pressure and emissions at sea.

   Reported WTO and IMO decisions¹²⁴¹

4. 04

   MIN → BIO

   Seabed recovery would disturb deep-sea habitat in licence areas.

   Inferred ISA and NOAA records⁴²¹⁵

5. 05

   INF → INF

   Launch growth and debris raise collision risk in shared orbits.

   Reported ESA 2026¹⁷

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.

Implication

Sea level responds to ocean heat and ice loss over decades. A faster rate means coastal exposure grows even if emissions fall, and it ties the ice, ocean and coastal systems into one chain⁵⁶.

What would move it

The next WMO report, the NASA record and the Greenland and Antarctic mass series would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Arctic sea ice reached the lowest annual winter maximum in the 47-year satellite record in March 2025, and the September 2025 minimum of 4.60 million km² on 10 September was the tenth lowest.¹³

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Arctic surface air temperatures from October 2024 to September 2025 were the warmest recorded since 1900, the last ten years are the ten warmest, and warming since 2006 has been more than twice the global rate.³⁴

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   The Greenland ice sheet lost an estimated 129 billion tons of ice in 2025, below the 2003 to 2024 annual average of 219 billion tons, and continued its long-term net loss.³

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

   Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.⁵⁶

5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   Seven of nine planetary boundaries are assessed as breached in 2025, and ocean acidification was judged breached for the first time, with surface ocean pH down about 0.1 units since the industrial era.¹⁰

2.3Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-005

   NOAA confirmed a fourth global coral bleaching event in April 2024, and the 2025 Global Tipping Points Report judges that warm-water reefs are passing their thermal tipping point, with a central estimate of 1.2 °C and a range of 1 to 1.5 °C.⁸⁹

2.4Food

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   FAO reports that 62.4% of assessed fish stocks were biologically sustainable in its 2026 edition, down from 64.5% two years earlier, and that 72.6% of landings came from sustainable stocks.²¹²²

2.5POL

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-008

   The high seas treaty entered into force on 17 January 2026 with 105 parties at the time of reading, and the high seas are 61% of the ocean with 1.45% covered by protected areas.¹¹¹⁶

2.6Trade

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-009

   The WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies entered into force on 15 September 2025 and 123 members had accepted it by the last date shown on the WTO page.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-010

   The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee voted 57 to 49, with 21 abstentions, in October 2025 to adjourn for one year its session on the net-zero framework for shipping.⁴¹

2.7Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-011

   Deep seabed exploitation rules were still under negotiation at the International Seabed Authority in 2026, and in August 2026 NOAA reported that one United States application for commercial recovery in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone was in full compliance with the information requirements of its statute.⁴²¹⁵

2.8Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-012

   ESA reports that its space environment health index rose from about 4 to about 50 in one year, and that more than 4,000 new payloads reached orbit in 2025 on more than 300 launches.¹⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357enback
11. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through ocean and polar commons, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries ocean and polar commons risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on ocean and polar commons, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR12-CLI-001

   Reef collapse with fish and coastal protection loss

   Driver

   repeated bleaching events as warming passes a thermal threshold⁸⁹

   Exposure

   reef-dependent coasts, fisheries and tourism

   Vulnerability

   little time to recover between events; acidification¹⁰

   Capacity

   reef protection; emissions cuts; local management

   Cascade

   CLI → BIO → FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR12-CLI-002

   Faster sea level rise and coastal exposure

   Driver

   rate nearly doubled between 1993 and 2025⁵⁶

   Exposure

   coastal cities, deltas and small islands

   Vulnerability

   low-lying land; storm surge on a higher base

   Capacity

   coastal planning; defence; relocation

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR12-POL-003

   Treaty and rules gap on the high seas

   Driver

   a treaty in force with 1.45% of the high seas protected¹¹¹⁶

   Exposure

   high seas biodiversity and fisheries

   Vulnerability

   implementation lags entry into force

   Capacity

   conference of the parties; scientific bodies; national laws

   Cascade

   POL → BIO → FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR12-MIN-004

   Seabed recovery before shared rules are complete

   Driver

   unfinished international rules and an open national review⁴²¹⁵

   Exposure

   deep-sea habitat in licence areas

   Vulnerability

   baselines for deep-sea ecosystems are thin

   Capacity

   ISA Council; national licensing process; public comment

   Cascade

   MIN → BIO → FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

parties to the high seas treaty prepare the first area-based management proposals while fishing and seabed activity continue

Analogues

WTO subsidy rules, 2025; Antarctic Treaty system¹²¹⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   POL → BIO

   the first conference of the parties convenes and bodies are set up

   2026

2. 2

   BIO → FOO

   proposals for protected areas are prepared with scientific advice

   2027

3. 3

   TRD → FOO

   subsidy and fleet rules apply alongside new area measures

   2025

4. 4

   MIN → BIO

   seabed licensing decisions proceed on a separate track

   2026

5. 5

   BIO → FOO

   reef and stock stress continue under warming

   2025

6. 6

   POL → TRD

   rules meet practice in ports and at sea

   2027

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01 would travel through Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01 (2026); Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for ocean and polar commons. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 ocean and polar commons readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• ISSUED
• ADJOURNED

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers ocean and polar commons assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s oceans, polar regions and global commons and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency analyses; treaty records; peer-reviewed tipping point and ocean literature; fisheries statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), cited from memory; the UN status page returned no data. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (1991), cited from memory. Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, Buenos Aires. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), cited from memory. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen (1920), cited from memory. Observation year 1920. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ilulissat Declaration, Arctic Ocean Conference, 2008, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4, December 2022 (Target 3 on protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030), cited from memory. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, resolution MEPC.377(80), July 2023, cited from memory; no figure used. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ed.), Request for an advisory opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, Case No. 31, advisory opinion of 21 May 2024 (case page; unanimous; holdings not read). ITLOS, Hamburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 19International Court of Justice (ed.), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 (case page; documents listed; holdings not read). ICJ, The Hague. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, second extraordinary session, adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework by 57 votes to 49 on 17 October 2025; reconvening due October 2026 (as reported by a trade news service). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, eadh2458, 2023, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sala, E. et al., Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate, Nature 592, 397 to 402, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hardin, G., The tragedy of the commons, Science 162, 1243 to 1248, 1968, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990, cited from memory. Observation year 1990. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, cited from memory; the IPCC page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357enback
36. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. C-01

   How would implementation of the high seas treaty change protection on the high seas, and how would that be measured?

   INI-SR12-HSP-01 · high seas protection; first output: protection tracker for the high seas.

2. C-02

   Which links join ice loss, sea level and coastal exposure, and where do they bind fastest?

   INI-SR12-ICE-02 · ice and sea level; first output: exposure overlay.

3. C-03

   Where do reef stress, acidification and fish stocks overlap?

   INI-SR12-REF-03 · reefs, acidification and fish; first output: overlap map.

4. C-04

   Which seabed and shipping rules are in force, adjourned or open?

   INI-SR12-RUL-04 · rules register; first output: status register.

5. C-05

   How crowded is orbit and what limits clean-up?

   INI-SR12-ORB-05 · orbit; first output: debris and launch note.

6. C-06

   Which states and bodies publish ocean data on a comparable basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. C-07

   How do competing uses of the Arctic shape shared risk?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. C-08

   Which commons capabilities have been exercised in practice, and which are only agreed on paper?

   Commons capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 commons portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The global commons edition reads national ocean chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National ocean chapters

   ocean and polar reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   climate, biodiversity, food, infrastructure

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Global commons model

   the ocean, polar and orbital system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-03 supply chains · SR-09 planetary boundaries · SR-04 critical minerals

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Commons Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the ocean and polar commons candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR12-2027-01 · High seas protection Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike many shared spaces at once: warming, emissions or fishing pressure. The shared cause matters more than the space.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Domino effects

A change in one space removes a buffer for the next. Ice loss raises seas, and reef loss removes coastal protection and fish habitat.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Shared spaces also act back on the systems around them. Ice loss reduces reflection of sunlight, and ocean warming feeds more of the energy imbalance.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different spaces share the same weak points: thin protection, thin data, rules that lag practice and a few crowded orbits and routes.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Reef thermal limits and treaty entry into force are thresholds of different kinds.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Global Commons Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR12-COMMONS · v0.1

Purpose

represent the ocean, the poles, the high seas and orbit as linked shared spaces and the mechanisms by which change spreads between climate, biodiversity, food, minerals and trade

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 ocean and polar commons annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• NOAA³: ice and ocean chapters of the full report
• UN Treaty Collection¹¹: party list by date
• FAO²²: the stock status chapter
• ISA¹⁵: text of the Council decisions of 2026

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: sea ice extent

Construct

the area of ocean with at least a set share of ice cover

Unit

million square kilometres

Method

passive microwave concentration data at 25 km, or analyst-interpreted imagery at 1 km

Source

NSIDC and USNIC analyses¹²

Uncertainty

products differ in threshold, resolution and averaging window

Known limits

extent does not measure ice thickness or volume

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357enback
3. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), cited from memory; the UN status page returned no data. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19International Court of Justice (ed.), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 (case page; documents listed; holdings not read). ICJ, The Hague. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ed.), Request for an advisory opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, Case No. 31, advisory opinion of 21 May 2024 (case page; unanimous; holdings not read). ITLOS, Hamburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• CLI
• BIO
• FOO
• INF
• MIN
• TRD
• ENE
• WAT
• FIN
• DAT

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: the Arctic

• region
• ice
• air temperature
• ice sheet

Systems in view

sea ice, ice sheet, coasts, shipping routes

Defining events

lowest winter sea ice maximum in the record, March 2025³

Couplings

CLI → INF; CLI → BIO

Capability evidence

long public satellite series¹³

Gaps

ice thickness; activity counts on a common basis

Agenda items

C-02 · C-07

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the global commons edition through the ocean and coastal chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
2. 2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
3. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4WMO (ed.), Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025 (news page repeating the report card findings, including sea ice older than four years down more than 95% since the 1980s). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
5. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
8. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, second extraordinary session, adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework by 57 votes to 49 on 17 October 2025; reconvening due October 2026 (as reported by a trade news service). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
14. 14POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; full compliance with information requirements; comment period to 19 October 2026). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
15. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 5, chapter 6
19. 19International Court of Justice (ed.), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 (case page; documents listed; holdings not read). ICJ, The Hague. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ed.), Request for an advisory opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, Case No. 31, advisory opinion of 21 May 2024 (case page; unanimous; holdings not read). ITLOS, Hamburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357en Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), cited from memory; the UN status page returned no data. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (1991), cited from memory. Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, Buenos Aires. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), cited from memory. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen (1920), cited from memory. Observation year 1920. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ilulissat Declaration, Arctic Ocean Conference, 2008, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, cited from memory; the IPCC page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution, session records for August 2025 and February 2026, taken from search-result summaries (no agreement in August 2025; one-day procedural session on 7 February 2026 elected a new chair); the UNEP page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, eadh2458, 2023, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hardin, G., The tragedy of the commons, Science 162, 1243 to 1248, 1968, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990, cited from memory. Observation year 1990. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sala, E. et al., Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate, Nature 592, 397 to 402, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4, December 2022 (Target 3 on protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030), cited from memory. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, resolution MEPC.377(80), July 2023, cited from memory; no figure used. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

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Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version