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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables12 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

CLI · Sea ice

Arctic sea ice minimum, September 2025

4.60million km²

tenth lowest in the 47-year record.

Reported2025NSIDC1

CLI · Sea level

Rate of global mean sea level rise

4.4mm a year

115.2 mm above 1993.

Reported2024NASA6

BIO · Reefs

Warm-water reef thermal tipping point, central estimate

1.2°C

range 1 to 1.5; warming about 1.4.

Reported2025Tipping Points Report9

FOO · Fish

Assessed stocks that are sustainable

62.4%

down from 64.5% two years earlier.

Reported2024FAO via MSC21

BIO · Protection

High seas under protected areas

1.45%

the high seas are 61% of the ocean.

Reported2026Protected Planet16

SYS · Governance

Parties to the high seas treaty

105parties

in force from 17 January 2026.

Reported2026UN Treaty Collection11

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through ocean and polar commons, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries ocean and polar commons risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATSea level and storm surge reach coastal water supplies; no consolidated series here.CLI → WATInferred EQL 2
ENEShipping fuel rules, offshore energy and seabed minerals draw on the ocean; rules were adjourned or open in 2026.MIN → ENEReported EQL 3
FOO62.4% of assessed stocks are sustainable; 72.6% of landings come from them.BIO → FOOReported EQL 3
HLTCoastal flooding and seafood supply touch health; evidence not consolidated here.CLI, FOO → HLTInferred EQL 2
BIOWarm-water reefs are passing a thermal tipping point; 1.45% of the high seas is protected.CLI → BIOReported EQL 3
CLIThe core driver: Arctic air at its highest since 1900; sea level up 115.2 mm since 1993.the core systemReported EQL 4
INFPorts, cables and orbit are shared infrastructure; the ESA health index rose from about 4 to about 50.INF ↔ commonsReported EQL 3
FINSubsidy rules for fishing are in force; finance of ocean protection is not consolidated here.TRD → FINExpert input EQL 2
DATOcean and ice observation rests on public satellite series; data on activity at sea are thin.DAT → commonsExpert input EQL 2
AICModels and machine analysis of ocean data are not consolidated here.AIC → DATInferred EQL 2
MINDeep seabed nodule recovery is under review in one national process while international rules are unfinished.MIN → BIOReported EQL 3
TRDShipping and fisheries rules form the trade side of the commons: one entered into force, one was adjourned.TRD ↔ commonsReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on ocean and polar commons, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemice, sea level, reefs and fish move together369warming and acidificationPARTIAL
GS-01Watersea level reaches coastal water supplies6salt intrusionTHIN
GS-02Energyshipping fuel rules and seabed minerals4142rules adjourned or openPARTIAL
GS-03Food and agrifood62.4% of assessed stocks sustainable21overfishing and warmingPARTIAL
GS-04Healthseafood supply and coastal floodingstorm surgeTHIN
GS-05Finance and economysubsidy rules in force12harmful subsidiesPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentsmall island and coastal states carry exposure6limited adaptation financeTHIN
GS-07ClimateArctic air at its highest since 19003ice loss feedbacksGOOD
GS-08Disastersea level rise raises coastal flood exposure6storm surge on higher seasPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureports, cables and orbit are shared17crowding and debrisPARTIAL
GS-10Citiescoastal cities face rising seas6floodingTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityreefs passing a tipping point; 1.45% of the high seas protected916reef lossGOOD
GS-12Earth observationsatellite series underpin ice and sea level16continuity of missionsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitalocean data and cables depend on digital systemsdata gapsTHIN
GS-14Policyhigh seas treaty in force; shipping framework adjourned1141implementation gapsGOOD
GS-15Sciencetipping point science is active930thresholds not pinnedPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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