Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

5 min read0 figures1 table15 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR12-CLI-001

    Reef collapse with fish and coastal protection loss

    Driver
    repeated bleaching events as warming passes a thermal threshold89
    Exposure
    reef-dependent coasts, fisheries and tourism
    Vulnerability
    little time to recover between events; acidification10
    Capacity
    reef protection; emissions cuts; local management
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR12-CLI-002

    Faster sea level rise and coastal exposure

    Driver
    rate nearly doubled between 1993 and 202556
    Exposure
    coastal cities, deltas and small islands
    Vulnerability
    low-lying land; storm surge on a higher base
    Capacity
    coastal planning; defence; relocation
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR12-POL-003

    Treaty and rules gap on the high seas

    Driver
    a treaty in force with 1.45% of the high seas protected1116
    Exposure
    high seas biodiversity and fisheries
    Vulnerability
    implementation lags entry into force
    Capacity
    conference of the parties; scientific bodies; national laws
    Cascade
    POL → BIO → FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR12-MIN-004

    Seabed recovery before shared rules are complete

    Driver
    unfinished international rules and an open national review4215
    Exposure
    deep-sea habitat in licence areas
    Vulnerability
    baselines for deep-sea ecosystems are thin
    Capacity
    ISA Council; national licensing process; public comment
    Cascade
    MIN → BIO → FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDshipping net-zero framework adjourned; emissions cuts sit in the climate edition41
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEsatellite series for ice and sea level; deep-sea data thin16
Early warningEXISTSseasonal ice and bleaching alerts; no common cross-space warning8
Preparedness and planningLISTEDcoastal planning varies; not consolidated here
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDprotected areas cover 1.45% of the high seas16
ResponseLISTEDno consolidated response record for ocean events
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDfisheries and shipping continuity not consolidated here
RecoveryLISTEDreef recovery limited once thresholds pass9
AdaptationLISTEDadaptation of coasts not consolidated here
Social protectionLISTEDsupport for fishing communities not consolidated
Finance and insuranceLISTEDfinance of ocean protection not consolidated here
Institutional coordinationEXISTStreaties and bodies in force; practice uneven111215
Technical infrastructureEXISTSresearch vessels, satellites and ports; orbit crowding rising17
WorkforceLISTEDskills for ocean science and enforcement not consolidated
Research capacityADEQUATEocean and tipping point science active93031
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8NOAA (ed.), NOAA confirms 4th global coral bleaching event (news release of 15 April 2024; bleaching documented from February 2023 to April 2024). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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