Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
parties to the high seas treaty prepare the first area-based management proposals while fishing and seabed activity continue
Analogues
WTO subsidy rules, 2025; Antarctic Treaty system1218
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    POL → BIO

    the first conference of the parties convenes and bodies are set up

    2026

  2. 2

    BIO → FOO

    proposals for protected areas are prepared with scientific advice

    2027

  3. 3

    TRD → FOO

    subsidy and fleet rules apply alongside new area measures

    2025

  4. 4

    MIN → BIO

    seabed licensing decisions proceed on a separate track

    2026

  5. 5

    BIO → FOO

    reef and stock stress continue under warming

    2025

  6. 6

    POL → TRD

    rules meet practice in ports and at sea

    2027

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01 would travel through Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 POL to biodiversityThe first conference of the parties convenes and bodies are set up. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 1
02 Biodiversity to foodProposals for protected areas are prepared with scientific advice. Analogue or source: 2027.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 2
03 Trade to foodSubsidy and fleet rules apply alongside new area measures. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 3
04 Minerals to biodiversitySeabed licensing decisions proceed on a separate track. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 4
05 Biodiversity to foodReef and stock stress continue under warming. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 5
06 POL to tradeRules meet practice in ports and at sea. Analogue or source: 2027.Edition SR-12, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026, scenario SCN-SR12-HSP-01 (2026); Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices