Readings from the other desks

The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

16 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading the commons as linked spaces. Warming drives ice loss, sea level, reef stress and acidification together, and governance moves unevenly across them. Evidence is strongest for physical series and weakest for activity at sea and effective protection.

CLI-001 · CLI-004 · BIO-005 · POL-008

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the ocean arrives as a coast, a plate of fish or a news image of melting ice. The baseline asks that public debate treat the ocean, the poles and orbit as shared and connected, and keep governance in view as well as science.

CLI-002 · FOO-007 · POL-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Sea level, reef and fish evidence show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

CLI-004 · FOO-007

NEXUS

Synthesis

The commons are well described by physical series and thinly measured by use. The 2027 programme should bind protection and activity data, test the treaty scenario and map which rules are in force before the next decisions.

POL-008 · MIN-011 · C-01

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for ocean and polar commons. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Reports strategic desks	commons chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness	strategic editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Heat moves between air, ice and water, and carbon changes ocean chemistry. Treating sea ice, sea level, reefs and fish alone understates how a change in one reaches the others. This edition reads the links.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Shared spaces are linked

A reef passes a thermal threshold at a level of warming well within current ranges. The Tipping Points Report places the central estimate at 1.2 °C. Averages hide the point after which recovery is limited.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Thresholds matter more than averages

Some rules entered into force in 2025 and 2026. Others were adjourned or remain open. The gap between a rule in force and a change at sea is itself a measurable thing.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Rules arrive unevenly

Sea ice and sea level have long public series. Protection, seabed ecosystems and activity at sea do not. What is not measured is hard to protect or to hold to account.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Data decide what can be governed

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 ocean and polar commons readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 ocean and polar commons readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Global risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
ISSUED
ADJOURNED

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Agreement on Marine Biodiversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction¹¹	United Nations	global	IN FORCE	high seas biodiversity
WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies¹²	WTO	global	IN FORCE	fishing subsidies
IMO net-zero framework for shipping⁴¹	IMO	global	ADJOURNED	shipping emissions
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea²³	United Nations	global	IN FORCE	ocean law
Antarctic Treaty¹⁸	Antarctic Treaty System	global	IN FORCE	Antarctica
Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty²⁴	Antarctic Treaty System	global	IN FORCE	Antarctic environment
Outer Space Treaty²⁵	United Nations	global	IN FORCE	outer space
Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act⁴²	United States	US	IN FORCE	national seabed licensing
ISA exploitation regulations, draft¹⁵	International Seabed Authority	global	ADJOURNED	seabed mining
Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen²⁶	treaty parties	Svalbard	IN FORCE	Arctic archipelago
Ilulissat Declaration²⁷	Arctic Ocean coastal states	Arctic	ADOPTED 2008	Arctic Ocean
Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework³⁹	Convention on Biological Diversity	global	ADOPTED 2022	protected area target
IMO GHG Strategy⁴⁰	IMO	global	ADOPTED 2023	shipping emissions
Advisory opinion on climate and the law of the sea²⁰	ITLOS	global	ISSUED 2024	ocean law
Advisory opinion on climate obligations¹⁹	International Court of Justice	global	ISSUED 2025	state obligations

Changed since 2024

The high seas treaty entered into force on 17 January 2026¹¹
The WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies entered into force on 15 September 2025¹²
The IMO adjourned the net-zero framework session in October 2025⁴¹

To watch in 2027

Ratifications and the first conference of the parties of the high seas treaty¹¹
Council decisions on seabed exploitation rules¹⁵
The reconvened IMO session on the net-zero framework (post-close, context only)¹³

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers ocean and polar commons assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s oceans, polar regions and global commons and its couplings?
Sources searched: agency analyses; treaty records; peer-reviewed tipping point and ocean literature; fisheries statistics
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Rockström et al.³¹	journal article	2009	framework	planetary boundaries
Richardson et al.³²	journal article	2023	framework	boundary update
Armstrong McKay et al.³⁰	journal article	2022	supports	tipping thresholds
Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen³³	journal article	2023	context	ocean circulation signal
Sala et al.³⁶	journal article	2021	supports	protection and food
Hardin³⁴	journal article	1968	framework	shared resources
Ostrom³⁵	book	1990	framework	collective action
Kessler and Cour-Palais³⁸	journal article	1978	framework	debris collisions

Table 6.6Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Arctic Report Card 2025³	NOAA	2025	supports	Arctic change
State of the Global Climate update⁵	WMO	2025	supports	sea level rate
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere²⁸	IPCC	2019	context	ocean and ice
Sixth Assessment, Working Group I³⁷	IPCC	2021	context	physical basis
Global Tipping Points Report⁹	Global Systems Institute and partners	2025	supports	reef threshold
Planetary Health Check¹⁰	Planetary Boundaries Science Lab	2025	supports	acidification boundary

Table 6.7Statistics, treaties and rules
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Sea Ice Today analyses¹⁷	NSIDC	2025	supports	sea ice extent
Ice analysis²	US National Ice Center	2026	supports	dataset differences
Global mean sea level⁶	NASA	2024	supports	sea level rise
State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026²²	FAO	2026	supports	stock status
Protected Planet¹⁶	UNEP-WCMC and IUCN	2026	supports	protected areas
Space Environment Report 2026¹⁷	ESA	2026	supports	orbital health

Table 6.8Standards, agreements and records
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
BBNJ Agreement status¹¹	United Nations	2026	supports	treaty status
Fisheries subsidies acceptances¹²	WTO	2026	supports	subsidy rules
MEPC adjournment⁴¹	IMO	2025	supports	shipping framework
Consolidated application release⁴²	NOAA	2026	supports	national licensing
31st session records¹⁵	International Seabed Authority	2026	supports	seabed rules
Advisory opinion²⁰	ITLOS	2024	context	ocean law
Advisory opinion¹⁹	International Court of Justice	2025	context	climate obligations

Where the evidence agrees

Warming drives ice loss, sea level rise and reef stress together³⁶⁹
Sea level rise is faster than at the start of the satellite record⁵⁶
The high seas treaty entered into force on 17 January 2026¹¹

Where it is unsettled

How soon reef loss spreads beyond current events⁹
How well the high seas treaty will change protection at sea¹¹¹⁶
How deep-sea ecosystems would respond to nodule recovery⁴²¹⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), cited from memory; the UN status page returned no data. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Antarctic Treaty Secretariat (ed.), Parties to the Antarctic Treaty (58 parties, 29 consultative; treaty in force 23 June 1961). Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (1991), cited from memory. Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, Buenos Aires. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), cited from memory. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen (1920), cited from memory. Observation year 1920. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ilulissat Declaration, Arctic Ocean Conference, 2008, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4, December 2022 (Target 3 on protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030), cited from memory. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, resolution MEPC.377(80), July 2023, cited from memory; no figure used. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ed.), Request for an advisory opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, Case No. 31, advisory opinion of 21 May 2024 (case page; unanimous; holdings not read). ITLOS, Hamburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19International Court of Justice (ed.), Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 (case page; documents listed; holdings not read). ICJ, The Hague. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, second extraordinary session, adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework by 57 votes to 49 on 17 October 2025; reconvening due October 2026 (as reported by a trade news service). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, eadh2458, 2023, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023, cited from memory; contested in the literature. Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sala, E. et al., Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate, Nature 592, 397 to 402, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hardin, G., The tragedy of the commons, Science 162, 1243 to 1248, 1968, cited from memory. AAAS. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990, cited from memory. Observation year 1990. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, cited from memory; the IPCC page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7NSIDC (ed.), Sea Ice Today analyses (Antarctic maximum 17.81 million km² on 17 September 2025, third lowest; Antarctic minimum 1.98 million km² on 1 March 2025, tied second lowest). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2US National Ice Center (ed.), Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum and Maximum Extents, 2025 to 2026 (press release; USNIC 3-day minimum 4.86 million km² in September 2025; 2026 maximum 14.53 million km² on 6 to 8 March by USNIC and 14.29 million km² on 15 March by NSIDC). US National Ice Center, Suitland. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026, doi 10.4060/cd8357en (release 16 June 2026), figures taken from the summary page in [21]; the FAO pages read returned no figures. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.4060/cd8357en back
16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17European Space Agency (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (report page of 14 September 2026; data to end 2025; health index from about 4 to about 50; more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025). ESA, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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