Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1AI compute is physical infrastructure built on a few chips and a few places
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
AIC · Compute
Training compute growth, Epoch AI estimate
≈4times per yearpower is the first limit likely to bind.
Reported2024Epoch AI3
FIN · Market
Global semiconductor sales
791.7USD billionup 25.6% on 2024.
Reported2025SIA8
FIN · Equipment
Semiconductor equipment billings
135.1USD billiontrade report of a SEMI release.
Reported2025trade report9
ENE · Energy
US data centre electricity use
176TWhabout 4.4% of US electricity.
Reported2023Berkeley Lab15
INF · Fabrication
Foundry share of the largest producer
≈70%press report; a market-research estimate.
Reported2025press22
TRD · Policy
US CHIPS and Science Act programmes
50USD billion39 for manufacturing, 11 for research.
Reported2022Act44
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through semiconductor and compute, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries semiconductor and compute risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Cooling and process water use is reported by single companies, not on a common basis; one company reports about 5,300 acre-feet a year for one fab. | WAT ↔ INF | Reported EQL 2 |
| ENE | US data centres used 176 TWh in 2023 and may use 325 to 580 TWh in 2028. | AIC → ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | No documented coupling at baseline; chips in agricultural equipment are not evidenced here. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| HLT | No documented coupling at baseline; medical device and imaging chips are not evidenced here. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| BIO | No documented coupling at baseline. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| CLI | Electricity demand of compute and fabrication matters for emissions; the carbon intensity varies by site and region. | ENE → CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | The core system: fabrication concentrated in a few clusters; equipment billings of USD 135.1 billion in 2025. | the core system | Reported EQL 3 |
| FIN | Chip sales of USD 791.7 billion in 2025; public programmes of USD 50 billion in the United States. | FIN ↔ INF | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Data centres are the main buyers of AI accelerators; the link is stated, the volumes are not bound. | INF → DAT | Inferred EQL 2 |
| AIC | The demand driver: AI supercomputer performance doubling about every nine months. | AIC → INF | Reported EQL 3 |
| MIN | Gallium and germanium are used in chips and are concentrated in primary production; figures are not bound from a primary source. | MIN → INF | Inferred EQL 2 |
| TRD | US licences for advanced computing items to D:5 entities; equipment and chip flows follow controls. | TRD ↔ INF | Reported EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on semiconductor and compute, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compute couples to power, water and trade controls | local limits | THIN |
| GS-01 | Water | fab water reported by single companies23 | siting in dry regions | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | data centre electricity 176 TWh in 202315 | load growth | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance | chip sales USD 791.7 billion8 | capital intensity | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | access to chips and skills | widening gaps | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | electricity demand and emissions1524 | grid carbon intensity | THIN |
| GS-08 | Disaster | fabrication clusters in seismic regions | single-cluster dependence | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | data centre and fab power and cooling15 | grid interconnection | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | chips in space sensors not evidenced here | none documented | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | compute capacity and controls13 | hardware supply integrity | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | CHIPS Act and EU Chips Act4412 | subsidy and control divergence | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed base on trends and energy1267 | common benchmarks | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 3Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix’s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 systems from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv:2311.16863 (abstract page: multi-purpose generative models orders of magnitude more costly per 1,000 inferences than task-specific models). ACM, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back