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Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI compute is physical infrastructure built on a few chips and a few places
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
AI compute demand keeps growing while grid connection, water supply and packaging capacity grow more slowly
Analogues
the 2023 to 2028 range of US data centre load; the 2019 to 2025 growth of AI supercomputers115
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    AIC → ENE

    new compute sites queue for grid connection

    2025

  2. 2

    ENE → WAT

    cooling and plant water demand meets local supply limits

    2026

  3. 3

    INF → AIC

    packaging and memory capacity limits the chips that can be used

    2025

  4. 4

    TRD → INF

    export-control changes shift where equipment and chips can go

    2026

  5. 5

    GOV → FIN

    subsidy programmes move capacity to new regions over several years

    2026

  6. 6

    FIN → INF

    investment shifts toward efficiency, power supply and packaging

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01 would travel through Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 AI compute to energyNew compute sites queue for grid connection. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 1
02 Energy to waterCooling and plant water demand meets local supply limits. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 2
03 Infrastructure to ai computePackaging and memory capacity limits the chips that can be used. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 3
04 Trade to infrastructureExport-control changes shift where equipment and chips can go. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 4
05 Governance to financeSubsidy programmes move capacity to new regions over several years. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 5
06 Finance to infrastructureInvestment shifts toward efficiency, power supply and packaging. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01 (2026); Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 systems from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water and its partners

Water gives irrigation to food (0.8), cooling water and hydropower to energy (0.6) and environmental flows to biodiversity (0.6).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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