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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 semiconductor and compute agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 semiconductor and compute edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI compute is physical infrastructure built on a few chips and a few places
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the semiconductor and compute candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    How much power and cooling water do advanced fabrication plants and AI data centres need, on a common basis, and where do the limits fall?

    INI-XT06-PWR-01 · power and water footprint; first output: footprint estimates by site type.

  2. Q-02

    What advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory capacity exists, and in which places?

    INI-XT06-PKG-02 · packaging and memory; first output: capacity map.

  3. Q-03

    Which equipment and materials are single points of failure for advanced chips?

    INI-XT06-EQP-03 · equipment and materials; first output: dependence map.

  4. Q-04

    How far have announced subsidies become delivered plants and output?

    INI-XT06-SUB-04 · subsidy delivery; first output: award and outlay table.

  5. Q-05

    How can chip, system and compute counts be compared on a common basis?

    INI-XT06-BMK-05 · counts on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

  6. Q-06

    Which national export-control and licensing rules apply to advanced computing items, and how do they differ?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce exists for fabrication, packaging and data centre operation?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real shortages or disruptions, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 semiconductor and compute portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT06-PWR-01Power and water footprintInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT06-PKG-02Packaging and memoryInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT06-EQP-03Equipment and materialsInitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT06-SUB-04Subsidy deliveryInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT06-BMK-05Counts on a common basisInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT06-2027-01Local limits Universe missionMissionQ-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The semiconductor edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and cybersecurity, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    fabrication, power and trade readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · SR-03 supply chains

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    fabrication, equipment, memory, power, water, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-13 strategic technology · XT-07 HPC

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-06 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the semiconductor and compute candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the semiconductor and compute candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT06-2027-01 · Local limits Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
AIC-001 · AI supercomputer growthINI-XT06-BMK-05counts on a common basisPUBLIC
FIN-004 · chip salesINI-XT06-SUB-04subsidy deliveryPUBLIC
FIN-005 · equipment billingsINI-XT06-EQP-03equipment and materialsPUBLIC
INF-006 · foundry concentrationINI-XT06-PKG-02packaging and memoryPUBLIC
ENE-007 · US data centre energyINI-XT06-PWR-01 · key F reviewpower and water footprintPUBLIC
GOV-010 · EU Chips Actregional consortiarule overlayPUBLIC
TRD-011 · export controlsregional consortiarule overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT06-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
SIA monthly and annual sales releasesindustry associationmonthlyFIN-004
Equipment billings releasesSEMIquarterlyFIN-005
NIST CHIPS award pages (post-close, context only)NISTper eventGOV-009
European Commission Chips Act pagesEuropean Commissionper releaseGOV-010
US export-control noticesUS Department of Commerceper eventTRD-011
WSTS forecastsWSTStwice a yearFIN-004
Epoch AI data and reportsresearch organisationcontinuousAIC-002

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT06-001AI supercomputer performance doubling about every nine months1CORROBORATEDAIC · INFresearch question Q-05
SIG-XT06-002US data centre electricity projected at 325 to 580 TWh by 202815CORROBORATEDENE · AICresearch question Q-01
SIG-XT06-003EU second Chips Act proposed in June 202612PARTIALGOV · INFinitiative Q-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 systems from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 12European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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