Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables19 notesNR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Share of 2025 equipment billings in China, Taiwan and Korea	(49.31 + 31.50 + 25.75) ÷ 135.06	≈ 79%
(2)	Logic and memory share of 2025 chip sales	(301.9 + 223.1) ÷ 791.7	≈ 66%
(3)	Site power per chip for the largest 2025 system in the dataset	300 MW ÷ 200,000 chips	≈ 1.5 kW per chip, whole-site
(4)	Ratio of the 2028 projection to 2023 US data centre use	325 ÷ 176 and 580 ÷ 176	1.8 to 3.3 times

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Semiconductor and compute System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-XT06-SEMICONDUCTORS · v0.1
Purpose: represent advanced semiconductors and AI compute as infrastructure coupled to electricity, cooling water, materials, finance, workforce and export controls
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

2moderate

documented, buffered

18weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 semiconductor and compute annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Semiconductor and compute System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
AI supercomputer dataset	2019 to 2025	Apr 2025	one-off	updates
Training compute report	2024	Aug 2024	one-off	revisions
Semiconductor sales	2025	Feb 2026	annual	next annual release
Equipment billings	2025	Apr 2026	annual	next annual release
US data centre energy	2023 and 2028 scenarios	Dec 2024	periodic	next national update
CHIPS awards	not bound at close	post-close, context only: Sep to Oct 2026¹⁰	per event	next awards
EU Chips Act	2023 and 2026	Jun 2026 proposal	periodic	adoption
Export-control guidance	2026	May 2026	per event	next notice

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Compute	PARTIAL	counts on a common basis
Market	GOOD	primary equipment data
Governance	PARTIAL	text of the second Chips Act
Investment	PARTIAL	subsidy outlays
Energy	PARTIAL	fab and non-US data centre power
Water	THIN	fab and data centre water use
Skills	THIN	workforce numbers
Packaging and memory	THIN	capacity by country

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Power and cooling-water use of fabrication plants on a common basis	company reports, regulators, peer-reviewed footprint studies	single-company figures only; one fab figure read in local news²³
Water use of AI data centres	operators, utilities, national statistics	not retrieved; the Berkeley Lab report page gave no water figure¹⁶
Global data centre electricity figures from the IEA report itself	IEA Energy and AI²⁴	the IEA page returned an access error; figures come from search summaries
Foundry market share from a primary market-research source	TrendForce report²⁷ and the TSMC annual report¹⁷	press coverage only; the annual report was listed but not read; sources differ in scope
Advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory capacity by country	industry and trade statistics	not retrieved
Equipment dependence by country and tool type	SEMI data, company filings, trade statistics	regional billings read only through a trade report⁹
Gallium and germanium production and supply from the primary source	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026²⁵²⁶	the USGS pages returned an access error; no figure used
Delivered outlays against announced subsidy awards	NIST, European Commission, national ministries	award outlays not bound at the close; outlays not published in one series⁴⁴¹²
Text of the EU second Chips Act proposal	European Commission legal text	the page states the proposal; the text was not opened¹²
Rapidus and other national programme totals from ministry sources	METI and national ministries	trade press only; totals differ by source²¹⁴³
Chip and AI accelerator volumes by type	company filings, market research	not retrieved; vendor claims are not used¹⁹
Semiconductor workforce size and skills gaps	national statistics, OECD, industry surveys	not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED
WSTS forecast values for 2026 and 2027	WSTS forecast releases¹⁸	the home page was read; it carries no forecast text
Capability rungs beyond monitoring and planning	agencies, operators, laboratories	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Preprint arXiv 2504.16026 by Pilz, Sanders, Rahman and Heim, April 2025. One-off dataset of 500 systems. Role: binds AIC-001 and the lead figure. Coverage: systems from 2019 to 2025.

EVD-XT06-001

Trends in AI Supercomputers¹

Issued by the Semiconductor Industry Association in 2026 from WSTS data. Annual. Role: binds FIN-004 and the market tiles. Coverage: world sales by product category and region.

EVD-XT06-002

SIA release on 2025 sales⁸

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-XT06-001	EVD-XT06-002
Completeness	systems visible in public sources only	all WSTS members; world total
Timeliness	about one year of lag in the dataset	issued within weeks of year end
Revision	preprint versions	later forecasts may revise totals
Method transparency	dataset method described	compiled by WSTS from member reports
External validation	preprint, not yet peer reviewed here	industry statistics, no peer review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

Pilz and others¹: publication status and dataset updates
US Department of Commerce¹³: rule texts behind the May 2026 guidance
European Commission¹²: second Chips Act proposal text
IEA²⁴: global data centre figures from the report

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BIS	Bureau of Industry and Security
CHIPS	Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors
D:5	Country Group D:5 of the US export regulations
DOE	US Department of Energy
FLOP	floating-point operations
HBM	high-bandwidth memory
IRDS	International Roadmap for Devices and Systems
SEMI	semiconductor equipment and materials association
SIA	Semiconductor Industry Association
TWh	terawatt-hour
WSTS	World Semiconductor Trade Statistics
EUV	extreme ultraviolet lithography

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-XT06-PWR-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Cluster notes	cards for the major fabrication and compute clusters	2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: doubling time

Construct: time for a measured quantity to double under a fitted exponential trend
Unit: months
Method: regression of the quantity on date across systems or models
Source: preprint arXiv 2504.16026¹; preprint arXiv 2202.05924²
Uncertainty: depends on dataset coverage and period; not stated as one value in the abstracts read
Known limits: a historical fit, not a forecast; data come from public disclosures

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

10POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America program page (USD 50 billion; USD 39 billion manufacturing incentives; USD 11 billion research; award notices of 8 September, 16 September, 14 October and 22 October 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix’s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17TSMC (ed.), Annual reports page of investor relations (2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F filed 17 April 2026 listed; the reports themselves were not read). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, gallium chapter (reported in summaries as about 99% of primary low-purity gallium produced in China in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error and no figure is used in the findings. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, germanium chapter, the page returned an access error; summaries differ on China shares and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21The Register (ed.), Japan’s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: METI and press coverage of the April 2026 addition of JPY 631.5 billion to Rapidus support, bringing research and development support to about JPY 2.354 trillion, taken from search-result summaries; totals differ by source. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18POST-CLOSE, context only: WSTS (ed.), World Semiconductor Trade Statistics home page (73rd forecast conference planned for 16 to 19 November 2026; billings data through August 2026; no forecast values in the text of the page). WSTS, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 systems from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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