Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

  • Reports
  • Baseline Edition 2026
  • Complete edition

Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers

Edition home

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsXT-11

Exponential Technology

Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number
NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close
30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI
Issued at deposit
Licence
CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-11/

Contents

  1. ·

    Executive summary

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Blockchain and distributed ledgers matter to the Nexus programme in two ways. They are a settlement infrastructure that now carries tokenised money, and they are a regulatory subject that governments have started to write into law. The technical base is old and stable. A 2008 paper set out peer-to-peer electronic cash secured by proof of work1, and NIST describes a blockchain as a tamper-resistant distributed ledger2. The largest smart-contract network moved to proof of stake on 15 September 2022, and the Ethereum Foundation cites an annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh34. Money is the fastest-moving part. The Federal Reserve gives a stablecoin market capitalisation of USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, more than 50% above early 202517, while the BIS finds that stablecoins fall short on its three tests for money6. The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires reserves of at least 1 to 113. MiCA has applied in full in the EU since 30 December 202414. Central banks are active: 85 of 93 surveyed in 2024 were exploring a digital currency7. Security is the weak point. The FBI attributes a theft of about USD 1.5 billion from the Bybit exchange in February 2025 to North Korea19. Public-key signatures are exposed to a future quantum machine, and the two relevant Bitcoin proposals are still drafts2324. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no price and ranks no asset, country or firm.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the distributed ledger baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. A tamper-resistant distributed ledger kept by a network instead of one party.12

    What is a blockchain?Reported

  2. No. One large network reports 2,601 MWh a year after proof of stake; proof-of-work use is not bound here.35

    Is the energy question settled?Reported

  3. In the US, reserves of at least 1 to 1 and no issuer interest; in the EU, authorisation under MiCA.131415

    What do stablecoin laws require?Reported

  4. USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, per the Federal Reserve.17

    How large are stablecoins?Reported

  5. Most are exploring; three retail currencies are listed as launched.78

    What are central banks doing?Reported

  6. One theft of about USD 1.5 billion in 2025; vendor totals are higher and weaker.1920

    How big are thefts?Reported

  7. Not yet. The FSB found significant gaps and inconsistencies.12

    Do rules agree?Reported

  8. A large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls. SCN-XT11-STB-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires payment stablecoin issuers to hold identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1.

Figure S.1Time limits in the GENIUS Act
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Latest default effective date, months after enactment18
Earlier trigger, days after final regulations120
Days for a regulator to decide a complete application120

Source: Public Law 119-27, sections 5 and 2013. Months and days are different units; each bar shows its own count.

A federal regime for payment stablecoins now exists in statute. Reserves must be held at least 1 to 1 in listed assets, issuers may not pay interest or yield, and the Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations. Implementing rules, not the statute, will set most operating detail13.

S.4At a glance

317USD billion

stablecoin market capitalisation17

85central banks

exploring, 2024 survey7

18months

GENIUS Act default effective date after enactment13

30 Dec 2024date

MiCA applies in full14

1.5USD billion

Bybit theft19

2027pilot

digital euro pilot, if EU law passes in 202648

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading distributed ledgers as settlement infrastructure and as a regulatory subject.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a price headline, a theft or an ad for a token.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Stablecoin supply is large, rules differ by region, and theft losses are lumpy.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Distributed-ledger technology is well described by statutes and single events and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of blockchain and distributed ledgers as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of any asset price, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any token, exchange or protocol, or an assessment of any programme. Licensing, taxation and sanctions are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 distributed ledger edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table18 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is distributed ledger risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry distributed ledger shocks into other systems?
  • Which distributed ledger capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Distributed ledgers are usually discussed as an asset class. The 2026 evidence reads them as two things at once: a settlement infrastructure that now carries tokenised money, and a regulatory subject that governments and standard setters are writing into law171314.

The technical base is long established. A 2008 paper specified the first network1, NIST describes the technology in neutral terms2, and the largest smart-contract network has upgraded its protocol several times since its move to proof of stake in 20224. The energy question differs by design: the Ethereum Foundation cites 2,601 MWh a year3, and the current figure for proof-of-work networks is not bound here5.

Money is where the evidence is densest. Stablecoins reached USD 317 billion in April 202617, the BIS holds that they fall short as money6, the US enacted the GENIUS Act13, the EU applies MiCA1415, and central banks run digital-currency and tokenised-settlement projects784810.

Security is the least settled part. The FBI attributes a theft of about USD 1.5 billion to North Korea19, a vendor reports far larger illicit flows20, and ledger signatures are exposed to a future quantum machine while the two main Bitcoin proposals remain drafts2324.

Figure 1.1How large was the Bybit theft against all North Korea-linked theft in 2025? USD billion

One theft accounts for about three quarters of a vendor estimate of North Korea-linked theft in 2025. The two sources agree on the size of the theft. The vendor total is a lower bound and weak evidence1920.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
North Korea-linked thefts in 2025, vendor estimate2
Bybit theft, February 2025, FBI notice1.5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

1.5USD billion

Bybit theft, FBI19

2USD billion

North Korea-linked thefts, vendor20

154USD billion

received by illicit addresses, vendor lower bound20

<1%

illicit share of attributed volume, vendor20

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The distributed ledger-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their distributed ledger content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
mining water use, press-covered
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    FIN → INF

    Stablecoin growth moves settlement onto public ledgers.

    Reported USD 317 billion in April 202617

  2. 02

    DAT → FIN

    Theft and sanctions evasion erode trust in custody and issuers.

    Reported Bybit theft and vendor estimates1920

  3. 03

    INF → DAT

    A capable quantum machine would expose keys that have revealed a public key.

    Inferred draft proposals and exposure claims2324

  4. 04

    ENE → INF

    Electricity cost and supply shape where mining is sited.

    Inferred methodology of the electricity index5

  5. 05

    GOV → FIN

    Statutes set reserve and authorisation rules for issuers.

    Reported GENIUS Act and MiCA1314

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the distributed ledger baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables20 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires payment stablecoin issuers to hold identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1.

Figure 2.1Time limits in the GENIUS Act
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Latest default effective date, months after enactment18
Earlier trigger, days after final regulations120
Days for a regulator to decide a complete application120

Source: Public Law 119-27, sections 5 and 2013. Months and days are different units; each bar shows its own count.

Implication

A federal regime for payment stablecoins now exists in statute. Reserves must be held at least 1 to 1 in listed assets, issuers may not pay interest or yield, and the Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations. Implementing rules, not the statute, will set most operating detail13.

What would move it

Final regulations, the effective date, state-regime review and issuer authorisations would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    The Ethereum Foundation cites an annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh for the network after its move to proof of stake on 15 September 2022, a cut of more than 99.988% by an estimate from the Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute. Its roadmap page gives 99.95%.34

2.3CRY

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-002

    A 2008 paper specified peer-to-peer electronic cash secured by chained proof of work, and NIST describes a blockchain as a tamper-resistant distributed ledger in which published transactions cannot normally be changed.12

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-003

    Bitcoin improvement proposal 360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) and proposal 361 (migration and sunset of legacy signatures) both carry draft status. Proposal 360 resists only long exposure attacks.2324

  3. ReportedEQL 1NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-004

    The text of proposal 361 states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026. Secondary summaries of two analyses give about 9.6% and about 25% on different definitions.243031

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

    The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025. It requires identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1, bars issuers from paying interest or yield, and takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations.13

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

    MiCA applies in full in the EU from 30 December 2024, with rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens from 30 June 2024 and the grandfathering period under Article 143(3) ending on 1 July 2026 at the latest.1415

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    The FSB review published in October 2025, based on information as of August 2025, found significant gaps and inconsistencies in the implementation of its 2023 framework and made eight recommendations.1112

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    The Federal Reserve gives a stablecoin market capitalisation of USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, more than 50% above early 2025. The BIS finds that stablecoins fall short on its three tests for money and that over 99% are denominated in US dollars.176

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    In the 2024 BIS survey 85 of 93 central banks were exploring a digital currency. A tracker lists 146 countries and currency unions exploring, 3 launched and 41 pilot projects in May 2026, and in October 2025 the ECB tied a digital euro pilot from mid-2027 to EU legislation in 2026.7848

2.6Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-010

    The FBI states that about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets was stolen from the Bybit exchange on or about 21 February 2025 and attributes the theft to North Korea.19

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-011

    A security vendor reports that illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162% on 2024 and below 1% of attributed volume, with North Korea-linked thefts of USD 2 billion. This is a vendor estimate and a lower bound.20

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large stablecoin base that grows faster than uniform rules, reserve disclosure and theft controls. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables12 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FIN · Stablecoins

Stablecoin market capitalisation

317USD billion

more than 50% above early 2025.

Reported2026Federal Reserve17

FIN · Law

GENIUS Act reserve minimum

1 to 1reserve backing

identifiable reserves; no interest or yield from issuers.

Reported2025Public Law 119-2713

INF · Energy

Ethereum annual electricity use after proof of stake

2,601MWh per year

a project-published estimate, weak evidence.

Reported2026Ethereum Foundation3

FIN · Central banks

Countries and currency unions exploring a digital currency

146jurisdictions

3 launched; 41 pilot projects.

Reported2026Atlantic Council8

DAT · Security

Bybit theft attributed to North Korea

1.5USD billion

on or about 21 February 2025.

Reported2025FBI19

DAT · Cryptography

Bitcoin with a public key revealed on-chain

>34percent

a claim in a draft proposal text; other estimates differ.

Reported2026BIP-36124

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through distributed ledger, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries distributed ledger risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling-water use of mining is estimated in a press-covered study not read at source.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENENetwork electricity use differs by design; the proof-of-stake figure is a project estimate and the proof-of-work figure is not bound.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 2
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; supply-chain tracing claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; health-record ledger claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIElectricity demand matters for emissions; no figure bound.INF → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: a stable protocol base, repeated upgrades, and settlement projects of central banks.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINStablecoins at USD 317 billion; statutes in the US and EU; BIS doubts about their role as money.FIN → INFReported EQL 4
DATTheft and sanctions evasion are documented; signature exposure to quantum attack is a drafted-proposal topic.INF → DATReported EQL 4
AICNo documented coupling to other compute platforms at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINMining hardware depends on semiconductor supply; no figure bound.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDSanctions, cross-border payments and remittance costs shape use; the cost series was not read.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on distributed ledger, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemledgers couple to finance, security and electricitystablecoin stressTHIN
GS-01Watermining water use not read at sourcefacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyproof-of-stake estimate only3load from mining sitesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceUSD 317 billion of stablecoins17reserve and redemption riskGOOD
GS-06Developmentremittance cost series not read27widening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint of proof-of-work not boundelectricity demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresettlement projects of central banks10single-platform dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaltheft and signature exposure1924key compromisePARTIAL
GS-14PolicyGENIUS Act, MiCA and FSB review121314rule divergenceGOOD
GS-15Sciencefoundational papers and NIST overview12common measurementPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Risks and capability

Four distributed ledger risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table22 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT11-FIN-001

    Stablecoin reserve and redemption stress

    Driver
    rapid growth against uneven reserve rules617
    Exposure
    holders of the largest stablecoins; short-term funding markets
    Vulnerability
    reserve composition not read from attestations
    Capacity
    GENIUS Act and MiCA reserve rules1314
    Cascade
    FIN → DAT, TRD
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years
  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT11-DAT-002

    Theft and sanctions evasion

    Driver
    large single thefts and illicit flows1920
    Exposure
    exchanges, bridges and custodians
    Vulnerability
    key compromise; weak controls at service providers
    Capacity
    FBI attribution; sanctions policy; supervisory rules1921
    Cascade
    DAT → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years
  3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT11-CRY-003

    Signature exposure to quantum attack

    Driver
    exposed public keys and falling quantum resource estimates2224
    Exposure
    outputs that have revealed a public key
    Vulnerability
    no activated post-quantum output type
    Capacity
    draft proposals and NIST standards222324
    Cascade
    CRY → DAT → FIN
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years
  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT11-GOV-004

    Divergent national rules

    Driver
    different statutes and review outcomes12131416
    Exposure
    cross-border issuers and service providers
    Vulnerability
    regulatory arbitrage
    Capacity
    FSB framework and review1112
    Cascade
    GOV → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for distributed ledger at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSstatutes for stablecoin issuers in the US and EU1314
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of reserves, theft and illicit use on one basis
Early warningLISTEDsupervisory monitoring is not consolidated12
Preparedness and planningEXISTSFSB framework and central bank projects4811
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSreserve requirements of at least 1 to 1 for US issuers13
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a run on a large stablecoin
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDsettlement continuity of tokenised money not reported
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery of stolen funds not read
AdaptationLISTEDpost-quantum output types are drafts2324
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceLISTEDno insurance data read
Institutional coordinationEXISTSstandard setters and supervisory authorities11121415
Technical infrastructureEXISTSmature protocols and upgrade processes4
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps not read; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEfoundational papers and public specifications1236373839
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21US Department of the Treasury (ed.), Tornado Cash Delisting (press release of 21 March 2025). Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buterin, V., A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform, white paper, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Haber, S. and Stornetta, W.S., How to time-stamp a digital document, Journal of Cryptology 3, 99 to 111, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
stablecoin supply keeps growing while national rules take effect at different dates and large thefts continue
Analogues
the 2025 Bybit theft; the BIS tests for money619
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    FIN → INF

    stablecoin supply grows and settlement moves onto public ledgers

    2026

  2. 2

    DAT → FIN

    a large theft or issuer failure shakes confidence in custody

    2025

  3. 3

    FIN → FIN

    redemptions press on the reserve assets of an issuer

    2026

  4. 4

    GOV → FIN

    national rules take effect at different dates

    2026

  5. 5

    TRD → DAT

    illicit flows shift to the least regulated venues

    2025

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    central banks accelerate their own settlement projects

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01 would travel through Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Finance to infrastructureStablecoin supply grows and settlement moves onto public ledgers. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 1
02 DAT to financeA large theft or issuer failure shakes confidence in custody. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 2
03 Finance to financeRedemptions press on the reserve assets of an issuer. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 3
04 Governance to financeNational rules take effect at different dates. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 4
05 Trade to datIllicit flows shift to the least regulated venues. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructureCentral banks accelerate their own settlement projects. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01 (2026); Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Readings from the other desks

The distributed ledger baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
GRA Capital ReadinessOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Standards ProgressNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading distributed ledgers as settlement infrastructure and as a regulatory subject. Statutes and supervisory pages are strong evidence. Energy, reserve composition and illicit share are weak, and vendor figures are labelled as such.

GOV-005 · FIN-008 · DAT-010 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a price headline, a theft or an ad for a token. The baseline asks that public debate separate statutes, project claims and vendor reports, and keep the protection of ordinary holders in view.

GOV-005 · DAT-010 · DAT-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Stablecoin supply is large, rules differ by region, and theft losses are lumpy1719. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-008 · GOV-005

NEXUS

Synthesis

Distributed-ledger technology is well described by statutes and single events and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind reserve composition, publish a comparable footprint and test the stablecoin stress pathway before the next large event.

SYS-012 · L-01 · L-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for distributed ledger. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability exist?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests show?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat changed in the year, and what renews?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
GCRI CanadaLead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academytechnology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capabilitytechnology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Distributed ledgers are a protocol base and a regulatory subject. The first changes slowly through documented upgrades. The second is changing fast in statute. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and dismissal.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Two stories, one technology

A statute, a project page and a vendor report carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before illicit and theft totals are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Separate statutes, project claims and vendor reports

Electricity use depends on the consensus design and on how hardware is assumed. A published method is needed before totals are compared across networks.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The footprint is a method question

Statutes now set reserve and authorisation rules while reserve composition, redemption behaviour and illicit share remain thinly measured. The next year should close that gap.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Rules arrive before evidence

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 distributed ledger readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 distributed ledger readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst 2027 entry
E1Distributed Ledger risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive global system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 6 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4Federation delivery registernational chapters in preparationnational chapters
E5Consortium capability registernational consortia formingfirst contributions
E6Leadership questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical statenational environments preparedfirst federation cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • PUBLISHED
  • DRAFT
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
GENIUS Act, Public Law 119-2713US CongressUSIN FORCE 2025 · EFFECTIVE DATE PENDINGpayment stablecoins
MiCA, Regulation (EU) 2023/11141434EU legislatorsEUIN FORCE 2024crypto-asset markets
MiCA rules for ART and EMT issuers15EBAEUAPPLIED FROM 30 JUNE 2024token issuers
Transfer of Funds Regulation35EU legislatorsEUIN FORCEtravel rule
FSB framework for crypto-asset activities11FSBglobalPUBLISHED 2023regulatory framework
Basel crypto-asset standard SCO6016Basel CommitteeglobalPUBLISHED 2022 · UNDER REVIEWbank exposures
FATF standards on virtual assets26FATFglobalPUBLISHEDillicit finance controls
ISO/TC 307 on blockchain3233ISOglobalCOMMITTEE ACTIVEterminology and standards
NIST post-quantum standards22NISTUS, used globallyPUBLISHED 2024signature algorithms
NIST IR 82022NISTUSPUBLISHED · VOLUNTARYtechnology overview

Changed since 2024

  • The MiCA grandfathering period under Article 143(3) ended on 1 July 2026 at the latest14
  • The Basel Committee set its crypto-asset standard in December 202216
  • The GENIUS Act was enacted on 18 July 202513

To watch in 2027

  • Final regulations under the GENIUS Act13
  • Outcome of the Basel Committee review of its crypto-asset standard16
  • Follow-up to the FSB review of 202512

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers distributed ledger assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about blockchain and distributed ledgers as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched
foundational papers; standard setters and central banks; statutes and supervisory pages; protocol pages and security reports
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
Table 6.5Foundations and peer-reviewed papers
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
Nakamoto1white paper2008frameworkpeer-to-peer electronic cash
NIST IR 82022NIST report2018frameworkneutral overview
Haber and Stornetta39journal article1991frameworktime-stamping
Lamport, Shostak and Pease38journal article1982frameworkByzantine agreement
Castro and Liskov37conference paper1999frameworkpractical Byzantine fault tolerance
Buterin36white paper2014frameworksmart-contract platform
Eyal and Sirer40conference paper2014contextselfish mining
Daian et al.41conference paper2020contexttransaction ordering and extraction
Table 6.6Institutional flagships
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Makarov and Schoar42journal article2020contextarbitrage across exchanges
de Vries29journal article2023contextwater footprint estimate
Digiconomist index47index page2026contextcompeting energy estimate
Cambridge index method5methodology page2026supportsmethod for electricity estimate
Electric Capital developer report25industry report2026contextdeveloper activity
Glassnode analysis30vendor analysis2026contextexposed supply estimate
Citi Institute analysis31bank research2026contextexposed supply estimate
Table 6.7Law, standards and supervisory work
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
BIS Annual Economic Report chapter6BIS2025supportstests for money
BIS survey of central banks7BIS2025supportsdigital-currency work
FSB framework and review1112FSB2023 to 2025supportsrule consistency
GENIUS Act13US Congress2025supportsstablecoin statute
MiCA pages1415ESMA and EBA2024 to 2025supportsEU regime
Table 6.8Protocols, security and field data
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Ethereum Foundation energy page3project body2026contextweak, project-published
Ethereum roadmap page4project body2025contextupgrade dates
Bitcoin proposals 360 and 3612324draft specifications2026contextquantum exposure
Chainalysis report20security vendor2025contextweak, vendor estimate
FBI notice19law enforcement2025supportsattribution of a theft
Federal Reserve note17central bank2026supportsstablecoin size
Atlantic Council tracker8think tank2026contextdigital-currency counts

Where the evidence agrees

  • Stablecoins have grown fast and are now a policy subject617
  • Statutes in the US and EU set reserve and authorisation rules1314
  • Large thefts are attributed to state-linked actors by law enforcement19

Where it is unsettled

  • How large the illicit share of volume is on a common basis2026
  • How far national rules agree in practice1216
  • How soon ledger signatures need to migrate to post-quantum schemes222324

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 on information accompanying transfers of funds and certain crypto-assets, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 307 Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (committee page blocked automated access; cited from memory). International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 22739, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, Vocabulary, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Haber, S. and Stornetta, W.S., How to time-stamp a digital document, Journal of Cryptology 3, 99 to 111, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buterin, V., A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform, white paper, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Eyal, I. and Sirer, E.G., Majority is not enough: Bitcoin mining is vulnerable, Financial Cryptography, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Daian, P. et al., Flash Boys 2.0: frontrunning in decentralised exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Makarov, I. and Schoar, A., Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets, Journal of Financial Economics 135(2), 293 to 319, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: de Vries, A., Bitcoin’s growing water footprint, Cell Reports Sustainability, 2023, known from press coverage only; no figure used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 distributed ledger agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 distributed ledger edition.

6 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. L-01

    How large and how liquid are stablecoin reserves, and how would a run on the largest issuers pass into short-term funding markets?

    INI-XT11-STB-01 · reserves and redemption; first output: reserve and redemption register.

  2. L-02

    What do proof-of-work and proof-of-stake networks use in electricity, and where is mining sited?

    INI-XT11-ENE-02 · energy footprint; first output: footprint estimates by network.

  3. L-03

    How much value is held in keys that expose a public key, and how fast can signatures migrate?

    INI-XT11-SIG-03 · signature exposure and migration; first output: exposure and migration table.

  4. L-04

    Which losses come from theft, which from fraud, and how are they measured on a common basis?

    INI-XT11-SEC-04 · theft and illicit use; first output: loss table on a common basis.

  5. L-05

    How far do national stablecoin and crypto-asset rules agree on reserves, custody and disclosure?

    INI-XT11-REG-05 · rule comparison; first output: rule comparison table.

  6. L-06

    Which central bank projects have reached issuance, and which remain pilots?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: project status overlay.

  7. L-07

    What workforce exists for protocol engineering, custody and supervision?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. L-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real incidents, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 ledger portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT11-STB-01Reserves and redemptionInitiativeL-01PROPOSED
INI-XT11-ENE-02Energy footprintInitiativeL-02PROPOSED
INI-XT11-SIG-03Signature exposure and migrationInitiativeL-03PROPOSED
INI-XT11-SEC-04Theft and illicit useInitiativeL-04PROPOSED
INI-XT11-REG-05Rule comparisonInitiativeL-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT11-2027-01Stablecoin stress Universe missionMissionL-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The ledger edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on finance, cyber and energy, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    payments, stablecoin and digital-currency readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-05 finance · GS-13 cyber and digital · XT-10 cryptography

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    protocols, energy, hardware, payments, security, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-05 sovereign and financial resilience · SR-10 digital public infrastructure

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-11 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the distributed ledger candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the distributed ledger candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT11-2027-01 · Stablecoin stress Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · energy estimateINI-XT11-ENE-02energy footprintPUBLIC
CRY-003 · draft proposalsINI-XT11-SIG-03signature exposure and migrationPUBLIC
CRY-004 · exposure estimatesINI-XT11-SIG-03signature exposure and migrationPUBLIC
GOV-005 · GENIUS ActINI-XT11-REG-05rule comparisonPUBLIC
GOV-006 · MiCAregional consortiarule comparisonPUBLIC
FIN-008 · stablecoinsINI-XT11-STB-01 · key F reviewreserves and redemptionPUBLIC
DAT-010 · theftINI-XT11-SEC-04theft and illicit usePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT11-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Project upgrade pages and specification repositoriesprotocol projectsper releaseINF-001
BIS and FSB publicationsBIS and FSBper releaseFIN-008
Federal Register and Congress pagesUS governmentper releaseGOV-005
ESMA and EBA pages on MiCAEuropean authoritiesper releaseGOV-006
Central bank project pagescentral banksper eventFIN-009
Law-enforcement noticesFBI and Treasuryper eventDAT-010
Security vendor crime reportssecurity vendorsannualDAT-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT11-001Stablecoin market capitalisation reached USD 317 billion17CORROBORATEDFINresearch question L-01
SIG-XT11-002Bybit theft of about USD 1.5 billion in February 20251920CORROBORATEDDATresearch question L-04
SIG-XT11-003Bitcoin quantum proposals remain drafts2324PARTIALCRY · DATinitiative L-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

10 min read0 figures5 tables31 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Protocols and ledger platforms

Distributed ledgers run on a small set of mature protocols. Evidence is strongest for documented specifications and upgrade dates, and weakest where it rests on project statements.

2008year

white paper that specified the first network1

2022year

move of the largest smart-contract network to proof of stake4

3upgrades

Dencun, Pectra and Fusaka, 2024 to 20254

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Proof-of-work networksspecified in a 2008 paper; chained hash-based proof of work1Reported
Proof-of-stake networksEthereum moved on 15 September 2022; Dencun 13 March 2024, Pectra 7 May 2025, Fusaka 3 December 20254Reported
Consensus theoryByzantine agreement and fault-tolerance papers underlie permissioned designs3738Inferred
Technology overviewNIST describes tamper-resistant distributed ledgers2Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ FIN settlement and funding
  • INF → DAT key and signature exposure
  • ENE ↔ INF electricity

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • activity and usage on a common basis
  • delivered upgrades against plans

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.2Energy, mining and hardware

Electricity use depends on the consensus design. A project estimate exists for one proof-of-stake network. The current value for proof-of-work networks is not bound here.

2,601MWh per year

Ethereum electricity use, project estimate3

>99.988%

cut cited by the project after proof of stake3

99.95%

cut cited on the project roadmap page4

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Proof of stakethe project cites 2,601 MWh a year; two pages give two cut percentages34Reported
Proof of workthe Cambridge index method is a hybrid top-down model; the live value was not read5Expert input
Mining water useestimated in a study known from press coverage only29Expert input
Mining hardwarespecialised chips; supply not read28Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF electricity demand
  • WAT → INF cooling water
  • MIN → INF hardware

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • proof-of-work electricity use from the primary index
  • mining water and hardware footprint

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.3Custody, security and sanctions

Security depends on how keys are held and on the services that hold them. Large thefts show the exposure of custodians and exchanges.

1.5USD billion

Bybit theft, February 202519

2USD billion

North Korea-linked thefts in 2025, vendor20

21March 2025

US Treasury delisting of Tornado Cash21

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Exchange custodya theft of about USD 1.5 billion attributed to North Korea19Reported
Vendor totalsat least USD 154 billion received by illicit addresses in 2025; a lower bound; other vendor and monitoring-team reports were not opened204546Reported
Sanctions policythe US removed sanctions against Tornado Cash on 21 March 202521Reported
Transaction orderingextraction of value from ordering is documented in research41Inferred

Couplings

  • DAT → FIN confidence
  • TRD → DAT sanctions
  • INF → DAT key compromise

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • loss totals on a common basis
  • custody concentration

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.4Economy, payments and workforce

Stablecoins and central bank projects bring ledgers into payments. Reserve composition, remittance cost and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.

317USD billion

stablecoin market capitalisation, April 202617

>99%

of stablecoins denominated in US dollars6

85central banks

exploring a digital currency, 20247

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
StablecoinsUSD 317 billion; more than 50% above early 202517Reported
BIS assessmentstablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity6Reported
Central bank projects146 jurisdictions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects8Reported
Workforcedeveloper activity is tracked by an industry report; no figure bound25Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • FIN → DAT theft exposure
  • INF ↔ TRD payments

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • reserve composition
  • remittance cost on ledger channels
  • workforce size

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.5Security, cryptography and governance watch

Statutes, supervisory pages and standard setters now frame the sector. The nearest cryptographic question is the exposure of ledger signatures to a future quantum machine.

18months

GENIUS Act default effective date after enactment13

30 Dec 2024date

MiCA applies in full14

8recommendations

in the FSB review of October 202512

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
US statuteGENIUS Act: reserves at least 1 to 1; no issuer interest or yield13Reported
EU regimeMiCA applies in full; ART and EMT rules from 30 June 2024; grandfathering to 1 July 2026 at the latest1415Reported
Global standardsFSB framework of 2023; review of 2025 found significant gaps; Basel standard of 2022; earlier FSB risk assessment and IOSCO review not opened1112164344Reported
Quantum exposureproposals 360 and 361 are drafts; NIST finalised signature standards in 2024222324Reported

Couplings

  • INF → DAT cryptographic exposure
  • GOV → FIN issuer rules
  • GOV → TRD cross-border rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of national rules
  • migration progress of signatures

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: de Vries, A., Bitcoin’s growing water footprint, Cell Reports Sustainability, 2023, known from press coverage only; no figure used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2024 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21US Department of the Treasury (ed.), Tornado Cash Delisting (press release of 21 March 2025). Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: TRM Labs (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report, cited from memory without figures. TRM Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (ed.), report on North Korea cyber activity, 2025, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Daian, P. et al., Flash Boys 2.0: frontrunning in decentralised exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FSB (ed.), Assessment of Risks to Financial Stability from Crypto-assets, February 2022, cited from memory. Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOSCO (ed.), thematic review on the implementation of IOSCO crypto-asset recommendations, October 2025, known from the FSB page only. International Organization of Securities Commissions, Madrid. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables22 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.DerivationCalculationResult
(1)Implied early-2025 stablecoin capitalisation from growth above 50 percent317 ÷ 1.5under USD 211 billion
(2)Latest default effective date of the GENIUS Act18 July 2025 plus 18 months18 January 2027
(3)Share of surveyed central banks exploring a digital currency85 ÷ 93about 91 percent
(4)Bybit share of North Korea-linked thefts in 2025, vendor figures1.5 ÷ 2.0about 75 percent
Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
StrengthDefinition
STRONGa disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATEan effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAKan effect is plausible but not documented at global scale
Table A.3Status grammar
LabelRule
Reportedvalue as issued by its source, with year
Inferredreasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
EstimatedNexus analytical value with stated method
Scenarioconditional on stated assumptions
Expert inputstructured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Distributed Ledger System Model v0

Model ID
MDL-XT11-DLT · v0.1
Purpose
represent distributed ledgers as infrastructure coupled to electricity, mining hardware, finance, payments, security and public-key cryptography
Family
graph-based system of systems
Inputs
the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method
expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation
none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty
qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity
global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility
strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

0moderate

documented, buffered

20weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID
DC-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type
baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy
pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned
48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs
none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest
computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes
nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by
the 2027 distributed ledger annual cut

Lineage

  1. 01

    source edition

  2. 02

    pinned citation

  3. 03

    finding

  4. 04

    page

  5. 05

    publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
ElementBaseline 20262027 global annual
Sourcescited global publications, pinned by editionnational, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysisstated methods and editorial estimatestyped analysis specifications
ModelsDistributed Ledger System Model v0 specificationmodel runs with receipts
Findingstwelve baseline findingsfindings re-bound to federation evidence
Reviewfive passes scheduledfive passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
IndicatorObservedReleasedCadenceNext release
Stablecoin market capitalisation2026April 2026periodicnext FEDS note
GENIUS Act2025July 2025one-offfinal regulations
MiCA application2024 to 2026Dec 2024 · Jul 2026periodicESMA register updates
FSB review2025Oct 2025periodicnext FSB report
Digital-currency counts2024 · 2026survey 2024 · tracker May 2026periodicnext BIS survey
Bybit theft2025Feb 2025one-offlater notices
Illicit volume estimate2025vendor report 2026annualnext vendor report
Bitcoin proposals2026Feb to Mar 2026continuousstatus changes
Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
SystemCoverageThinnest dimension
ProtocolsPARTIALprimary electricity index value
Money and lawGOODissuer reserve attestations
Central banksPARTIALproject status by country
SecurityPARTIALcommon basis for losses
EnergyTHINproof-of-work electricity use
SupplyTHINmining hardware supply
SkillsTHINworkforce numbers
Tokenised assetsTHINvolume of tokenised real-world assets
Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
FieldSource that would fill itBlocker
Current electricity use of proof-of-work networksCambridge index landing page, competing indicesthe landing page loads its values by script and none was read; the method page was read5; a competing index was not opened47
Ethereum electricity use on a common methodindependent carbon-ratings studiesthe project pages give 2,601 MWh, more than 99.988% and 99.95% on different pages34; no independent study was read
Illicit share of stablecoin volume on a common basisFATF, Treasury, several vendors202645one vendor page was read; the FATF update and a second vendor report were not opened
Stablecoin reserve composition from issuer attestationsissuer attestations and supervisory returnsnot retrieved; the Federal Reserve note was read for market size only17, and the IMF stability report page read states nothing on stablecoins18
Share of stablecoins by issuer and currencycentral bank statistics and market datathe BIS chapter gives over 99% dollar-denominated but no total capitalisation6
Basel Committee review outcomeBasel Committee publicationsthe page read shows the 2022 standard and a 2025 start date; a later date and a review appear only in search summaries16
MiCA text and the number of authorised service providersEUR-Lex and the ESMA register1434the regulation text did not load; the ESMA page gives dates but no count
Post-quantum migration of ledger signaturesprotocol specifications and client releasestwo draft proposals read; no activated output type2324
Share of bitcoin with an exposed public key on one definitionon-chain analysesover 34% in a proposal text, about 9.6% and about 25% in secondary summaries243031
Tokenised real-world asset volumesissuer and custodian statisticsnot retrieved; no figure used
Remittance cost series for ledger-based and traditional channelsWorld Bank remittance price data27page blocked automated access
Quantum and developer workforce for protocol engineering and supervisionindustry surveys, labour statisticsthe developer report page loads its figures by script and none was read25
Global electricity share of crypto-asset miningIEA electricity outlook28page blocked automated access
Capability rungs beyond statutes and planningsupervisors, operators, exchangesnot reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Enacted by the United States Congress on 18 July 2025. One-off statute. Role: binds GOV-005 and the reserve tile. Coverage: US payment stablecoin issuers and foreign issuers addressed in the Act.

EVD-XT11-001

GENIUS Act, Public Law 119-2713

Issued by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation in February 2025. One-off. Role: binds DAT-010. Coverage: one theft attributed to North Korea.

EVD-XT11-002

FBI notice on the Bybit theft19

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
DimensionEVD-XT11-001EVD-XT11-002
Completenessfull statute text readone theft described
Timelinesseffective date pendingissued days after the theft
Revisionimplementing regulations will followlater notices possible
Method transparencytext publicattribution method not described on the page
External validationlegislative processlaw-enforcement assessment

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

  • GENIUS Act13: final regulations and effective date
  • Federal Reserve17: next note on stablecoins
  • Bitcoin proposals2324: status and activation
  • Basel Committee16: review outcome

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
GroupAreaItemsPassN/APending
D1Identity and scope8800
D2Source and data12912
D3Analysis and models12381
D4Findings and claims9801
D5Figures, tables, maps10622
D6Editorial and citations10802
D7Review and approval130013
D8Artefact and design12705
D9Registry and release9009

Publication gate

Conditions met
14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems
none recorded
Open conditions
reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs
first runs in Q1 2027
Maps
plates in Q2 2027
Waivers
none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
StatusWhat it means
ObservedMeasured directly and published by the source.
ReportedPublished statistics of an official or institutional source.
DeclaredStated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
EstimatedA Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
ModelledProduced by a stated model from cited inputs.
InferredReasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
ForecastA projection by the cited source.
SimulatedA simulation result under stated assumptions.
ScenarioA conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert inputExpert judgement, recorded with its basis.
CandidateProposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Evidence arrives from the pillarsFoundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealedOn the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembledThe edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turnAt the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opensA named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and depositedThe PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s siteOnly then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to StandardsMethod and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
TermMeaning
Baseline Editionthe inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+Bwater, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Couplinga typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gapthe share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladderLISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQLevidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cuta frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWGNational Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups
Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
AbbreviationExpansion
ARTasset-referenced token
BIPBitcoin improvement proposal
CASPcrypto-asset service provider
CBDCcentral bank digital currency
EBAEuropean Banking Authority
EMTelectronic money token
ESMAEuropean Securities and Markets Authority
FATFFinancial Action Task Force
FSBFinancial Stability Board
MiCAMarkets in Crypto-assets Regulation
P2MRPay-to-Merkle-Root
UTXOunspent transaction output

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
ItemAnnexContentsStatus
A.1Indicator definitionsthe global indicator set, with units and sourcesIN THIS EDITION
A.2Coupling strengthsthe twenty-cell matrix and its rationaleIN THIS EDITION
A.3Scenario specificationSCN-XT11-STB-01 assumptions and signpostsIN THIS EDITION
A.4Capability placementsrung evidence for fifteen functionsIN THIS EDITION
A.5Model diagnosticsfirst runs and validation2027
A.6Sensitivity analysesinfluence of coupling strengths2027
A.7Cluster notescards for the major ledger and tokenised-settlement clusters2027
A.8Review statementspass-by-pass review recordAT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: stablecoin market capitalisation

Construct
total value of stablecoins in circulation, valued at the issuer peg
Unit
USD billion
Method
sum of circulating supply across issuers as defined in the Federal Reserve note
Source
Federal Reserve FEDS Note of 8 April 202617
Uncertainty
figures differ by source and definition; the BIS chapter gives none
Known limits
does not show reserve quality or use for payments

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: TRM Labs (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report, cited from memory without figures. TRM Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (publication page, Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks; the page text states nothing on stablecoins or crypto-assets). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2024 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables19 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Stablecoin market capitalisation, 6 April 2026317USD billion2026Reported17
Growth in stablecoin capitalisation since early 2025>50%2026Reported17
Stablecoins denominated in US dollars>99%2025Reported6
GENIUS Act reserve minimum1 to 1ratio2025Reported13
GENIUS Act default effective date after enactment18months2025Reported13
Ethereum electricity use, project estimate2,601MWh per year2026Reported3
Ethereum electricity cut after proof of stake, estimate>99.988%2026Reported3
Central banks surveyed93central banks2024Reported7
Central banks exploring a digital currency85central banks2024Reported7
Countries and currency unions exploring a digital currency146jurisdictions2026Reported8
Launched retail digital currencies listed3jurisdictions2026Reported8
Digital-currency pilot projects listed41projects2026Reported8
Bybit theft1.5USD billion2025Reported19
Received by illicit addresses, vendor lower bound154USD billion2025Reported20
North Korea-linked thefts, vendor2USD billion2025Reported20
Bitcoin with a revealed public key, proposal text>34%2026Reported24

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • INF
  • FIN
  • DAT
  • ENE
  • CRY
  • GOV
  • TRD
  • CLI
  • WAT
  • MIN
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Nakamoto white paper1white paperprotocol2008one-offfoundation
NIST IR 82022national standards bodytechnology2018one-offoverview
Ethereum Foundation pages34project bodyone network2025 to 2026continuousenergy, upgrades
BIS Annual Economic Report6central bank forumglobal2025annualstablecoins
BIS survey of central banks7central bank forumglobal2024periodicdigital currency
FSB reports1112standard setterglobal2023 to 2025periodicrules
GENIUS Act13legislatureUS2025one-offstatute
ESMA and EBA pages1415EU authoritiesEU2024 to 2025continuousMiCA
Federal Reserve note17central bankUS and global2026periodicstablecoin size
FBI notice19law enforcementglobal2025one-offattribution

B.3Regional reading, distributed ledger across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of ledger infrastructure and rules in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, distributed ledger across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North AmericaGENIUS Act; Treasury sanctions policy; exchange theftlaw, securityPublic Law 119-2713; Treasury21
South Americanational rules and adoptionpaymentsregional evidence (not bound)
EuropeMiCA; digital euro preparationlaw, central bank moneyESMA and EBA1415; ECB48
Eurasiasanctions and payment projectspayments, securityregional evidence (not bound)
Middle East and North Africaregional rules and projectspaymentsregional evidence (not bound)
Africaone launched retail currency listed; remittance usepayments, accessAtlantic Council8
South Asianational programmespaymentsregional evidence (not bound)
East Asiacentral bank projects; licensing regimeslaw, paymentsregional evidence (not bound)
ASEANcross-border settlement projectspaymentsregional evidence (not bound)
Oceania-Pacificnational rules and projectslawregional evidence (not bound)

B.4Cluster card: tokenised settlement between central banks and banks

  • settlement
  • tokenisation
  • central bank money
  • cross-border
Systems in view
central bank reserves, commercial bank deposits, shared platforms
Defining events
Project Agorá led by eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions10
Couplings
FIN → INF settlement; GOV → FIN rules
Capability evidence
digital euro pilot from mid-2027 if EU law passes in 202648
Gaps
live volumes; operating model; legal basis
Agenda items
L-05 · L-06

A BIS Innovation Hub project tests a shared programmable platform that records tokenised reserves and deposits for wholesale cross-border payments [10].

PROJECT

Agorá

In October 2025 the ECB said a pilot could start from mid-2027 and the Eurosystem could be ready for a potential first issuance during 2029, if EU legislation is adopted in 2026. The decision to issue is taken only after the legislation is adopted [48].

CENTRAL BANK

Digital euro

In the 2024 BIS survey 91% of central banks were exploring a digital currency, and wholesale work was more advanced than retail work [7].

SURVEY

Wide exploration

B.5How countries appear in the distributed ledger edition

Countries enter the ledger edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the distributed ledger edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 21US Department of the Treasury (ed.), Tornado Cash Delisting (press release of 21 March 2025). Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: European Central Bank (ed.), Digital euro project page (Eurosystem preparing a pilot for 2027; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; no decision taken on issuance; rulebook draft version 0.91 of July 2026; entries to 30 October 2026). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  10. 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
  11. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  18. 18IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (publication page, Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks; the page text states nothing on stablecoins or crypto-assets). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  19. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21US Department of the Treasury (ed.), Tornado Cash Delisting (press release of 21 March 2025). Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  22. 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  24. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  25. 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2024 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: de Vries, A., Bitcoin’s growing water footprint, Cell Reports Sustainability, 2023, known from press coverage only; no figure used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 307 Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (committee page blocked automated access; cited from memory). International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 22739, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, Vocabulary, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 on information accompanying transfers of funds and certain crypto-assets, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buterin, V., A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform, white paper, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Haber, S. and Stornetta, W.S., How to time-stamp a digital document, Journal of Cryptology 3, 99 to 111, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Eyal, I. and Sirer, E.G., Majority is not enough: Bitcoin mining is vulnerable, Financial Cryptography, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Daian, P. et al., Flash Boys 2.0: frontrunning in decentralised exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Makarov, I. and Schoar, A., Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets, Journal of Financial Economics 135(2), 293 to 319, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FSB (ed.), Assessment of Risks to Financial Stability from Crypto-assets, February 2022, cited from memory. Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOSCO (ed.), thematic review on the implementation of IOSCO crypto-asset recommendations, October 2025, known from the FSB page only. International Organization of Securities Commissions, Madrid. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: TRM Labs (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report, cited from memory without figures. TRM Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (ed.), report on North Korea cyber activity, 2025, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-11
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 distributed ledger edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-11NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-11-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Exponential Technology Report · XT-11"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-11/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-11 edition Reports Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-11 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.
ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.