References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.148 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 9POST-CLOSE, context only: European Central Bank (ed.), Digital euro project page (Eurosystem preparing a pilot for 2027; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; no decision taken on issuance; rulebook draft version 0.91 of July 2026; entries to 30 October 2026). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
- 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 18IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (publication page, Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks; the page text states nothing on stablecoins or crypto-assets). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 21US Department of the Treasury (ed.), Tornado Cash Delisting (press release of 21 March 2025). Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
- 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2024 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: de Vries, A., Bitcoin’s growing water footprint, Cell Reports Sustainability, 2023, known from press coverage only; no figure used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 307 Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (committee page blocked automated access; cited from memory). International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 22739, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, Vocabulary, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 on information accompanying transfers of funds and certain crypto-assets, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buterin, V., A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform, white paper, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Haber, S. and Stornetta, W.S., How to time-stamp a digital document, Journal of Cryptology 3, 99 to 111, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Eyal, I. and Sirer, E.G., Majority is not enough: Bitcoin mining is vulnerable, Financial Cryptography, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Daian, P. et al., Flash Boys 2.0: frontrunning in decentralised exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Makarov, I. and Schoar, A., Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets, Journal of Financial Economics 135(2), 293 to 319, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FSB (ed.), Assessment of Risks to Financial Stability from Crypto-assets, February 2022, cited from memory. Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOSCO (ed.), thematic review on the implementation of IOSCO crypto-asset recommendations, October 2025, known from the FSB page only. International Organization of Securities Commissions, Madrid. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: TRM Labs (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report, cited from memory without figures. TRM Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (ed.), report on North Korea cyber activity, 2025, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-11
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 distributed ledger edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XT-11 | NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-XTC-XT-11-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- XT-11 edition Reports Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-11 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |