Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Distributed Ledger System Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Implied early-2025 stablecoin capitalisation from growth above 50 percent | 317 ÷ 1.5 | under USD 211 billion |
| (2) | Latest default effective date of the GENIUS Act | 18 July 2025 plus 18 months | 18 January 2027 |
| (3) | Share of surveyed central banks exploring a digital currency | 85 ÷ 93 | about 91 percent |
| (4) | Bybit share of North Korea-linked thefts in 2025, vendor figures | 1.5 ÷ 2.0 | about 75 percent |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Distributed Ledger System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT11-DLT · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent distributed ledgers as infrastructure coupled to electricity, mining hardware, finance, payments, security and public-key cryptography
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 distributed ledger annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Distributed Ledger System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin market capitalisation | 2026 | April 2026 | periodic | next FEDS note |
| GENIUS Act | 2025 | July 2025 | one-off | final regulations |
| MiCA application | 2024 to 2026 | Dec 2024 · Jul 2026 | periodic | ESMA register updates |
| FSB review | 2025 | Oct 2025 | periodic | next FSB report |
| Digital-currency counts | 2024 · 2026 | survey 2024 · tracker May 2026 | periodic | next BIS survey |
| Bybit theft | 2025 | Feb 2025 | one-off | later notices |
| Illicit volume estimate | 2025 | vendor report 2026 | annual | next vendor report |
| Bitcoin proposals | 2026 | Feb to Mar 2026 | continuous | status changes |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Protocols | PARTIAL | primary electricity index value |
| Money and law | GOOD | issuer reserve attestations |
| Central banks | PARTIAL | project status by country |
| Security | PARTIAL | common basis for losses |
| Energy | THIN | proof-of-work electricity use |
| Supply | THIN | mining hardware supply |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Tokenised assets | THIN | volume of tokenised real-world assets |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Current electricity use of proof-of-work networks | Cambridge index landing page, competing indices | the landing page loads its values by script and none was read; the method page was read5; a competing index was not opened47 |
| Ethereum electricity use on a common method | independent carbon-ratings studies | the project pages give 2,601 MWh, more than 99.988% and 99.95% on different pages34; no independent study was read |
| Illicit share of stablecoin volume on a common basis | FATF, Treasury, several vendors202645 | one vendor page was read; the FATF update and a second vendor report were not opened |
| Stablecoin reserve composition from issuer attestations | issuer attestations and supervisory returns | not retrieved; the Federal Reserve note was read for market size only17, and the IMF stability report page read states nothing on stablecoins18 |
| Share of stablecoins by issuer and currency | central bank statistics and market data | the BIS chapter gives over 99% dollar-denominated but no total capitalisation6 |
| Basel Committee review outcome | Basel Committee publications | the page read shows the 2022 standard and a 2025 start date; a later date and a review appear only in search summaries16 |
| MiCA text and the number of authorised service providers | EUR-Lex and the ESMA register1434 | the regulation text did not load; the ESMA page gives dates but no count |
| Post-quantum migration of ledger signatures | protocol specifications and client releases | two draft proposals read; no activated output type2324 |
| Share of bitcoin with an exposed public key on one definition | on-chain analyses | over 34% in a proposal text, about 9.6% and about 25% in secondary summaries243031 |
| Tokenised real-world asset volumes | issuer and custodian statistics | not retrieved; no figure used |
| Remittance cost series for ledger-based and traditional channels | World Bank remittance price data27 | page blocked automated access |
| Quantum and developer workforce for protocol engineering and supervision | industry surveys, labour statistics | the developer report page loads its figures by script and none was read25 |
| Global electricity share of crypto-asset mining | IEA electricity outlook28 | page blocked automated access |
| Capability rungs beyond statutes and planning | supervisors, operators, exchanges | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Enacted by the United States Congress on 18 July 2025. One-off statute. Role: binds GOV-005 and the reserve tile. Coverage: US payment stablecoin issuers and foreign issuers addressed in the Act.
EVD-XT11-001
GENIUS Act, Public Law 119-2713
Issued by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation in February 2025. One-off. Role: binds DAT-010. Coverage: one theft attributed to North Korea.
EVD-XT11-002
FBI notice on the Bybit theft19
| Dimension | EVD-XT11-001 | EVD-XT11-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | full statute text read | one theft described |
| Timeliness | effective date pending | issued days after the theft |
| Revision | implementing regulations will follow | later notices possible |
| Method transparency | text public | attribution method not described on the page |
| External validation | legislative process | law-enforcement assessment |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ART | asset-referenced token |
| BIP | Bitcoin improvement proposal |
| CASP | crypto-asset service provider |
| CBDC | central bank digital currency |
| EBA | European Banking Authority |
| EMT | electronic money token |
| ESMA | European Securities and Markets Authority |
| FATF | Financial Action Task Force |
| FSB | Financial Stability Board |
| MiCA | Markets in Crypto-assets Regulation |
| P2MR | Pay-to-Merkle-Root |
| UTXO | unspent transaction output |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT11-STB-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major ledger and tokenised-settlement clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: stablecoin market capitalisation
- Construct
- total value of stablecoins in circulation, valued at the issuer peg
- Unit
- USD billion
- Method
- sum of circulating supply across issuers as defined in the Federal Reserve note
- Source
- Federal Reserve FEDS Note of 8 April 202617
- Uncertainty
- figures differ by source and definition; the BIS chapter gives none
- Known limits
- does not show reserve quality or use for payments
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: TRM Labs (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report, cited from memory without figures. TRM Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (publication page, Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks; the page text states nothing on stablecoins or crypto-assets). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2024 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back