Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Fusion energy matters to the Nexus programme as a possible future power source and as a present infrastructure question. The experimental record is strong and narrow. The National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target on 7 April 2025, a target gain of 4.135. The JET tokamak produced 69 MJ in about 5 seconds in its final deuterium-tritium campaign4. WEST held a plasma for 1,337 seconds in February 20251, and EAST held a high-confinement plasma for 1,066 seconds in January 20252. No source read reports electricity delivered to a grid from fusion. ITER now plans deuterium-tritium operation in 20397. The fuel cycle is the least measured part. Tritium is available commercially from one source, heavy-water reactors, and one analysis finds that the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg20. Lithium-6, needed for breeding, has effectively no supply today according to one company presentation21. Private investment reached USD 4.48 billion in the 12 months to July 2026, in a survey of 56 companies10. Public programmes expanded in the UK and Germany1516. The US regulator proposed in February 2026 to license fusion machines under the byproduct material framework14. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no plant date and ranks no country or company.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the fusion baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes at one facility, counting laser energy on target only: 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ in 2025.56

    Has fusion produced more energy than the laser put in?Reported

  2. WEST held a plasma for 1,337 seconds in 2025; EAST held 1,066 seconds in high confinement.12

    What is the longest plasma?Reported

  3. The plan is 2039, with research operation from 2034.7

    When will ITER burn deuterium and tritium?Reported

  4. No source read reports it. Companies state plans for 2028 and the early 2030s.2423

    Does any fusion plant deliver electricity?Reported

  5. Tritium free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg; lithium-6 supply is effectively zero today.2021

    Is there enough fuel?Reported

  6. USD 4.48 billion of private funding in the 12 months to July 2026, in a survey.10

    What does the money look like?Reported

  7. A US rule is proposed to license fusion machines as byproduct material users.14

    What does regulation look like?Reported

  8. First-plant fuel: start-up tritium and blanket demonstration. SCN-XT14-FUE-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13.

Figure S.1Energy in and out, NIF shot of 7 April 2025 (MJ)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Laser energy delivered to the target2.08
Fusion energy produced8.6

Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory annual report5. Laser energy on target only; facility electricity is not included.

Fusion energy out exceeded laser energy on target by a factor of 4.13. The laboratory lowered the maximum shot energy from 2.2 MJ to 1.9 MJ during refurbishment and plans an upgrade to 2.6 MJ, at which yields above 30 MJ become possible5. The first ignition shot, on 5 December 2022, produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ6.

S.4At a glance

4.13times

NIF target gain, 20255

1,337seconds

WEST plasma, 20251

4.48USD billion

private funding, 12 months to July 202610

2039year

ITER deuterium-tritium plan7

>160devices

operational, under construction or planned9

>2.5GBP billion

UK funding over five years15

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading fusion as an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the fusion story arrives as a headline about a record or a start-up.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Private funding is growing, public programmes are expanding and plant dates are stated for the 2030s.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Fusion is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of when any plant will deliver electricity, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any programme. Licensing, funding and fuel allocation are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 fusion edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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