Readings from the other desks

The fusion baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading fusion as an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question. Records are strong at research devices, no plant delivers electricity, and the fuel and licensing evidence is thin. Evidence is strongest for single experiments and weakest for fuel, materials and plant performance.

INF-001 · INF-003 · MIN-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the fusion story arrives as a headline about a record or a start-up. The baseline asks that public debate separate laboratory results, plans and company statements, and keep the fuel question in view.

INF-001 · INF-005 · FIN-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Private funding is growing, public programmes are expanding and plant dates are stated for the 2030s¹⁰¹⁵. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-008 · FIN-009 · FIN-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

Fusion is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fuel supply, publish a comparable performance basis and test the first-plant fuel pathway before plant dates arrive.

SYS-012 · F-01 · F-04

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fusion. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academy	technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability	technology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Fusion energy out has exceeded laser energy on target, and plasmas have been held for more than twenty minutes. Neither is electricity to a grid. Keeping the two apart avoids both hype and dismissal.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Records are not plants

A laboratory record, a project baseline and a company announcement carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before gain and duration are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Separate results, plans and statements

Tritium and enriched lithium are rarely counted. A published inventory and demand table would show whether first plants are limited by physics, fuel or money.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The fuel cycle is the blind spot

The US has proposed a licensing framework, the UK and Germany have published plans, and the EU is preparing a strategy. Final rules decide siting, waste and finance.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Rules are arriving

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fusion readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 fusion readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Fusion risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
PUBLISHED
DRAFT
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
ADVANCE Act of 2024, fusion machine definition¹⁴	US Congress	US	IN FORCE	definition
Proposed rule on fusion machines, 10 CFR part 30¹⁴	US NRC	US	PROPOSED FEBRUARY 2026	licensing
Draft guidance NUREG-1556 Volume 22¹⁴	US NRC	US	DRAFT	licence applications
Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap¹²	US Department of Energy	US	PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025	national plan
UK fusion strategy¹⁵	UK Government	UK	PUBLISHED MARCH 2026	funding and delivery
Draft National Policy Statement EN-8¹⁵	UK Government	UK	PLANNED SUMMER 2026	planning
Fusion Action Plan¹⁶¹⁷	German federal government	Germany	PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025	funding and rules
EU fusion strategy¹⁸	European Commission	EU	IN PREPARATION	strategy
National Strategy for Fusion Energy⁴⁴	Cabinet Office of Japan	Japan	PUBLISHED 2023	national plan
World Fusion Energy Group⁹	IAEA	global	MINISTERIAL MEETING OCTOBER 2025	coordination

Changed since 2024

The IAEA published World Fusion Outlook 2025 in October 2025⁹⁸
The German cabinet adopted the Fusion Action Plan on 1 October 2025¹⁶
The US NRC proposed its fusion rule on 26 February 2026¹⁴

To watch in 2027

Final text of the US rule on fusion machines¹⁴
The EU fusion strategy¹⁸
The UK draft National Policy Statement for fusion¹⁵

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers fusion assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed journals and preprints; laboratory and project pages; strategies and rules; surveys and fuel-supply analyses
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and preprints
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lawson³⁴	journal article	1957	framework	power-producing criterion
Zylstra et al.³⁵	journal article	2022	context	burning plasma in inertial fusion
Abu-Shawareb et al.³⁶	journal article	2024	supports	target gain above unity
Creely et al.³⁷	journal article	2020	context	SPARC design basis
Sorbom et al.³⁸	journal article	2015	context	ARC design study
Beidler et al.⁴²	journal article	2021	context	stellarator transport
Maslov et al.⁴⁶	journal article	2023	context	JET deuterium-tritium programme
Knaster et al.⁴¹	journal article	2016	framework	materials research

Table 6.6Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Abdou et al.³⁹	journal article	2021	framework	tritium self-sufficiency
Federici et al.⁴⁰	journal article	2019	context	European demonstration design
Pearson et al.⁴³	journal article	2018	framework	tritium supply and use
Coleman and Kovari²⁰	conference paper	2018	supports	tritium from heavy-water reactors
Ward et al.³³	preprint	2026	context	lithium enrichment
EAST overview³²	conference paper	2025	context	long-pulse operation
National Academies⁴⁵	consensus report	2021	context	pilot plant pathway

Table 6.7Policy, regulation and strategies
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
NRC proposed rule¹⁴	US Nuclear Regulatory Commission	2026	supports	licensing framework
DOE roadmap¹²	US Department of Energy	2025	supports	national plan
UK strategy¹⁵	UK Government	2026	supports	funding and STEP
EU call for evidence¹⁸	European Commission	2025	context	strategy preparation
Japan strategy⁴⁴	Cabinet Office of Japan	2023	context	national plan

Table 6.8Supply, investment and field overviews
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
ITER project page⁷	ITER Organization	2026	supports	baseline dates
IAEA World Fusion Outlook⁹³¹	IAEA	2025	context	device count
Fusion Industry Association surveys¹⁰¹¹	trade association via news	2025 to 2026	context	investment
Lithium-6 presentation²¹	Kyoto Fusioneering	2022	context	fuel supply
Tritium commentary²²	Kleinman Center	2025	context	inventory
Orion page²⁴	Helion	2026	context	company plan
ARC offtake release²³	Eni and CFS	2025	context	company plan

Where the evidence agrees

Records at research devices are real and published⁵⁴¹
First plants need a tritium breeding solution³⁹²¹
Licensing rules are being written now¹⁴¹⁵

Where it is unsettled

When any plant could deliver electricity²⁴²³¹²
How much tritium will be free for start-up²⁰²²⁴³
How large the facility electricity per shot or pulse is⁵³⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy (national strategy, April 2023), cited from memory. Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8ITER Organization (ed.), ITER Newsline issue 473 (item on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025, dated 14 October 2025). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawson, J.D., Some criteria for a power producing thermonuclear reactor, Proceedings of the Physical Society B 70, 6 to 10, 1957, cited from memory. Observation year 1957. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creely, A.J. et al., Overview of the SPARC tokamak, Journal of Plasma Physics 86, 865860502, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sorbom, B.N. et al., ARC: a compact, high-field, fusion nuclear science facility and demonstration power plant with demountable magnets, Fusion Engineering and Design 100, 378 to 405, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federici, G. et al., Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe, Nuclear Fusion 59, 066013, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pearson, R.J., Antoniazzi, A.B. and Nuttall, W.J., Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy, Fusion Engineering and Design 136, 1140 to 1148, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Huang, J. and colleagues, EAST overview paper, IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2025, seen as a search listing only. Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Bringing Fusion to the US Grid, consensus report, 2021, cited from memory. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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