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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Inertial

Record target gain at the National Ignition Facility

4.13times

8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of laser energy on target.

Reported2025LLNL5

INF · Magnetic

Longest plasma in the WEST tokamak

1,337seconds

hydrogen plasma, 2 MW of heating; not a fusion power result.

Reported2025CEA1

FIN · Finance

Private fusion funding in the 12 months to July 2026

4.48USD billion

survey of 56 companies; self-reported.

Reported2026FIA via news10

MIN · Fuel

Civilian tritium worldwide, one estimate

≈25kg

policy commentary, mostly held by one country; weak evidence.

Reported2024Kleinman22

SYS · Cross-system

Start of deuterium-tritium operation at ITER

2039year

a plan, four years later than the 2016 reference plan.

Reported2039 planITER7

GOV · Public funding

UK government fusion funding over five years

>2.5GBP billion

strategy of March 2026; 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy.

Reported2026UK strategy15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through fusion, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries fusion risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATPlant cooling-water use is not published for any fusion plant design read.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENENo source read reports electricity delivered from fusion; experiments report energy on target or injected.the core systemReported EQL 4
FOONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; tritium handling is an occupational question not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIFusion would matter for climate only at scale; no figure is bound.ENE → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: records at research devices; ITER deuterium-tritium plan for 2039; plants stated for the 2030s.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINUSD 4.48 billion of private funding in the 12 months to July 2026; public programmes expanded.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATFusion couples to data only through diagnostics and control; no figure is bound.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
AICNo documented coupling to compute platforms at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINTritium comes from heavy-water reactors; lithium-6 supply is effectively zero according to one presentation.MIN → INFReported EQL 3
TRDExport controls and transport rules apply to tritium and enriched lithium.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on fusion, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemfusion couples to energy, minerals and materialsfirst-plant fuelTHIN
GS-01Waterplant cooling-water use not publishedsitingTHIN
GS-02Energyno electricity delivered from fusion in sources read2423plant dates moveTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceUSD 4.48 billion of private funding10funding concentrationPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to technology and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatecontribution at scale not boundplant timingTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuretritium handling and plant sitessingle-site dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-14PolicyUS rule proposed; UK and German plans141516rules not finalPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong laboratory record145common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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