Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the fusion baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

8 min read1 figure0 tables23 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Minerals
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 Governance
    6. 2.6 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13.

Figure 2.1Energy in and out, NIF shot of 7 April 2025 (MJ)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Laser energy delivered to the target2.08
Fusion energy produced8.6

Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory annual report5. Laser energy on target only; facility electricity is not included.

Implication

Fusion energy out exceeded laser energy on target by a factor of 4.13. The laboratory lowered the maximum shot energy from 2.2 MJ to 1.9 MJ during refurbishment and plans an upgrade to 2.6 MJ, at which yields above 30 MJ become possible5. The first ignition shot, on 5 December 2022, produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ6.

What would move it

Refurbishment, the yield upgrade, repeat shots and a facility electricity figure would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13; the first ignition shot of December 2022 produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ.56

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    In its final deuterium-tritium campaign the JET tokamak produced 69 MJ over about 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel, up from 59 MJ in 2021; the result was announced on 9 February 2024.4

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    WEST held a hydrogen plasma for 1,337 seconds on 12 February 2025 with 2 MW of heating, and EAST held a high-confinement plasma for 1,066 seconds in January 2025.12

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    Wendelstein 7-X set a record for the triple product in long plasma pulses, held for 43 seconds, in a campaign that ended on 22 May 2025; tokamaks remain the record holders for short pulses.3

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    ITER plans deuterium-tritium operation in 2039, four years later than the 2016 reference plan, with research operation from 2034 and a target of 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of heating.725

2.3Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

    Heavy-water reactors are the only commercial source of tritium; one analysis finds the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg across scenarios, and policy commentary puts civilian stocks near 25 kg in 2024.2022

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-007

    Breeding blankets need lithium enriched to 30 to 90% lithium-6, natural lithium holds 7.4%, and one company presentation states that current supply of lithium-6 is effectively zero.2133

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    Private fusion funding was USD 4.48 billion in the 12 months to July 2026 and USD 14.24 billion cumulative over six years, in a survey of 56 companies; the 2025 survey reported USD 2.64 billion and USD 9.766 billion across 53 companies.1011

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    Public programmes expanded: the UK strategy of March 2026 states over GBP 2.5 billion over five years, Germany states over EUR 2 billion by 2029, and China Fusion Energy Co. was set up with 15 billion yuan of registered capital.15161719

  3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Two companies state plans for first plants: Helion states initial operations in 2028 at a site in Washington State, and Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni state a 400 MW plant in Virginia connecting in the early 2030s. These are company statements, not results.232428

2.5Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposed on 26 February 2026 to license fusion machines under the byproduct material framework of 10 CFR part 30, with comments due on 27 May 2026; the Department of Energy roadmap of 16 October 2025 targets power on the grid by the mid-2030s.1412

2.6Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is first-plant fuel: start-up tritium and blanket demonstration set the pace while plant dates are stated in the 2030s. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Helion (ed.), Helion secures land and begins building on the site of the first fusion power plant, release of 30 July 2025 (the release page returned a block) and the 2023 Microsoft agreement, taken from search-result summaries. Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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