Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four fusion risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-FUE-001

    Tritium start-up supply

    Driver
    one commercial source and scenario-dependent supply2022
    Exposure
    first plants and research devices using deuterium-tritium fuel
    Vulnerability
    decay of stored tritium; no large reserves; transfer rules
    Capacity
    breeding blanket development; purchase agreements21
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

  2. InferredEQL 2RSK-XT14-LIT-002

    Lithium-6 enrichment and blanket demonstration

    Driver
    blankets need 30 to 90% lithium-6 and supply is effectively zero2133
    Exposure
    breeding blanket designs
    Vulnerability
    enrichment routes are costly or hazardous in the sources read
    Capacity
    natural-lithium blanket concepts; new enrichment research21
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-SCH-003

    Schedule slippage in large public projects

    Driver
    ITER baselines have moved more than once725
    Exposure
    research plans and fuel demand schedules
    Vulnerability
    in-kind supply and fixed dates
    Capacity
    new baseline and staged operation7
    Cascade
    INF → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-GOV-004

    Licensing and waste rules not final

    Driver
    proposed US rule; UK and EU instruments planned141518
    Exposure
    first-plant siting and financing
    Vulnerability
    divergent national rules; waste classification not settled
    Capacity
    proposed technology-inclusive framework14
    Cascade
    GOV → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for fusion at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDsafety case and licensing rules are proposed or in preparation14
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of performance claims or fuel inventories
Early warningLISTEDschedule and supply watching is not consolidated
Preparedness and planningEXISTSUS roadmap, UK strategy and German plan published121516
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDtritium and lithium-6 reserves are not documented21
ResponseLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no plant in operation
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
AdaptationLISTEDstaged project plans exist7; no tested adaptation
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceEXISTSprivate funding large and public programmes growing1015
Institutional coordinationEXISTSITER, the IAEA group and national strategies7918
Technical infrastructureEXISTSresearch devices operating at several sites145
WorkforceLISTEDskills programmes announced15; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong laboratory and journal base5353646
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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