- Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The fusion baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fusion readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading fusion as an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question. Records are strong at research devices, no plant delivers electricity, and the fuel and licensing evidence is thin. Evidence is strongest for single experiments and weakest for fuel, materials and plant performance.
INF-001 · INF-003 · MIN-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the fusion story arrives as a headline about a record or a start-up. The baseline asks that public debate separate laboratory results, plans and company statements, and keep the fuel question in view.
INF-001 · INF-005 · FIN-011
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Private funding is growing, public programmes are expanding and plant dates are stated for the 2030s1015. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-008 · FIN-009 · FIN-011
NEXUS
Synthesis
Fusion is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fuel supply, publish a comparable performance basis and test the first-plant fuel pathway before plant dates arrive.
SYS-012 · F-01 · F-04
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fusion. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Fusion energy out has exceeded laser energy on target, and plasmas have been held for more than twenty minutes. Neither is electricity to a grid. Keeping the two apart avoids both hype and dismissal.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Records are not plants
A laboratory record, a project baseline and a company announcement carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before gain and duration are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate results, plans and statements
Tritium and enriched lithium are rarely counted. A published inventory and demand table would show whether first plants are limited by physics, fuel or money.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
The fuel cycle is the blind spot
The US has proposed a licensing framework, the UK and Germany have published plans, and the EU is preparing a strategy. Final rules decide siting, waste and finance.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Rules are arriving
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fusion readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Fusion risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADVANCE Act of 2024, fusion machine definition14 | US Congress | US | IN FORCE | definition |
| Proposed rule on fusion machines, 10 CFR part 3014 | US NRC | US | PROPOSED FEBRUARY 2026 | licensing |
| Draft guidance NUREG-1556 Volume 2214 | US NRC | US | DRAFT | licence applications |
| Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap12 | US Department of Energy | US | PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025 | national plan |
| UK fusion strategy15 | UK Government | UK | PUBLISHED MARCH 2026 | funding and delivery |
| Draft National Policy Statement EN-815 | UK Government | UK | PLANNED SUMMER 2026 | planning |
| Fusion Action Plan1617 | German federal government | Germany | PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025 | funding and rules |
| EU fusion strategy18 | European Commission | EU | IN PREPARATION | strategy |
| National Strategy for Fusion Energy44 | Cabinet Office of Japan | Japan | PUBLISHED 2023 | national plan |
| World Fusion Energy Group9 | IAEA | global | MINISTERIAL MEETING OCTOBER 2025 | coordination |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers fusion assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals and preprints; laboratory and project pages; strategies and rules; surveys and fuel-supply analyses
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson34 | journal article | 1957 | framework | power-producing criterion |
| Zylstra et al.35 | journal article | 2022 | context | burning plasma in inertial fusion |
| Abu-Shawareb et al.36 | journal article | 2024 | supports | target gain above unity |
| Creely et al.37 | journal article | 2020 | context | SPARC design basis |
| Sorbom et al.38 | journal article | 2015 | context | ARC design study |
| Beidler et al.42 | journal article | 2021 | context | stellarator transport |
| Maslov et al.46 | journal article | 2023 | context | JET deuterium-tritium programme |
| Knaster et al.41 | journal article | 2016 | framework | materials research |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdou et al.39 | journal article | 2021 | framework | tritium self-sufficiency |
| Federici et al.40 | journal article | 2019 | context | European demonstration design |
| Pearson et al.43 | journal article | 2018 | framework | tritium supply and use |
| Coleman and Kovari20 | conference paper | 2018 | supports | tritium from heavy-water reactors |
| Ward et al.33 | preprint | 2026 | context | lithium enrichment |
| EAST overview32 | conference paper | 2025 | context | long-pulse operation |
| National Academies45 | consensus report | 2021 | context | pilot plant pathway |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRC proposed rule14 | US Nuclear Regulatory Commission | 2026 | supports | licensing framework |
| DOE roadmap12 | US Department of Energy | 2025 | supports | national plan |
| UK strategy15 | UK Government | 2026 | supports | funding and STEP |
| EU call for evidence18 | European Commission | 2025 | context | strategy preparation |
| Japan strategy44 | Cabinet Office of Japan | 2023 | context | national plan |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITER project page7 | ITER Organization | 2026 | supports | baseline dates |
| IAEA World Fusion Outlook931 | IAEA | 2025 | context | device count |
| Fusion Industry Association surveys1011 | trade association via news | 2025 to 2026 | context | investment |
| Lithium-6 presentation21 | Kyoto Fusioneering | 2022 | context | fuel supply |
| Tritium commentary22 | Kleinman Center | 2025 | context | inventory |
| Orion page24 | Helion | 2026 | context | company plan |
| ARC offtake release23 | Eni and CFS | 2025 | context | company plan |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy (national strategy, April 2023), cited from memory. Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8ITER Organization (ed.), ITER Newsline issue 473 (item on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025, dated 14 October 2025). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawson, J.D., Some criteria for a power producing thermonuclear reactor, Proceedings of the Physical Society B 70, 6 to 10, 1957, cited from memory. Observation year 1957. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creely, A.J. et al., Overview of the SPARC tokamak, Journal of Plasma Physics 86, 865860502, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sorbom, B.N. et al., ARC: a compact, high-field, fusion nuclear science facility and demonstration power plant with demountable magnets, Fusion Engineering and Design 100, 378 to 405, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federici, G. et al., Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe, Nuclear Fusion 59, 066013, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pearson, R.J., Antoniazzi, A.B. and Nuttall, W.J., Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy, Fusion Engineering and Design 136, 1140 to 1148, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Huang, J. and colleagues, EAST overview paper, IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2025, seen as a search listing only. Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Bringing Fusion to the US Grid, consensus report, 2021, cited from memory. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
