Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 fusion agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 fusion edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fusion candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. F-01

    How much tritium is available to start a first plant, and how does stated demand compare with supply by year?

    INI-XT14-FUE-01 · tritium supply and start-up; first output: supply and demand table.

  2. F-02

    What lithium-6 enrichment capacity exists, and what do blanket designs need?

    INI-XT14-LIT-02 · lithium-6 and blankets; first output: capacity map.

  3. F-03

    What licensing, waste and siting rules apply to first plants in each jurisdiction?

    INI-XT14-LIC-03 · licensing and waste; first output: rule overlay.

  4. F-04

    How can gain, duration and power claims be compared on a common basis, including facility electricity?

    INI-XT14-BMK-04 · performance on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

  5. F-05

    How do stated plant dates, public funding and private funding move together?

    INI-XT14-FIN-05 · funding and schedule tracker; first output: tracker.

  6. F-06

    Which materials and components limit first-wall and magnet lifetimes?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: dependence map.

  7. F-07

    What workforce exists for fusion engineering, tritium handling and licensing?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. F-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in a real licence or fuel transfer, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 fusion portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT14-FUE-01Tritium supply and start-upInitiativeF-01PROPOSED
INI-XT14-LIT-02Lithium-6 and blanketsInitiativeF-02PROPOSED
INI-XT14-LIC-03Licensing and wasteInitiativeF-03PROPOSED
INI-XT14-BMK-04Performance on a common basisInitiativeF-04PROPOSED
INI-XT14-FIN-05Funding and schedule trackerInitiativeF-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT14-2027-01First-plant fuel Universe missionMissionF-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The fusion edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and materials, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    fusion programme and regulatory readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · XT-12 materials

    DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    devices, fuel cycle, materials, workforce, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-14 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fusion candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fusion candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT14-2027-01 · First-plant fuel Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · inertial resultINI-XT14-BMK-04performance on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-003 · plasma durationINI-XT14-BMK-04performance on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-005 · ITER planINI-XT14-FIN-05funding and schedule trackerPUBLIC
MIN-006 · tritiumINI-XT14-FUE-01tritium supply and start-upPUBLIC
MIN-007 · lithium-6INI-XT14-LIT-02lithium-6 and blanketsPUBLIC
FIN-008 · investmentINI-XT14-FIN-05funding and schedule trackerPUBLIC
GOV-010 · licensingINI-XT14-LIC-03licensing and wastePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT14-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Laboratory and institute news on recordslaboratories and institutesper eventINF-001
ITER project updatesITER Organizationper releaseINF-005
Federal Register and NRC fusion pagesUS regulatorper releaseGOV-010
Fusion Industry Association reporttrade associationannualFIN-008
IAEA World Fusion OutlookIAEAannualINF-005
Company announcementscompaniesper eventFIN-011
Tritium and lithium supply noticesproducers and agenciesper eventMIN-006

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT14-001NIF reached a target gain of 4.135CORROBORATEDINFresearch question F-04
SIG-XT14-002Private funding rose to USD 4.48 billion in 12 months10PARTIALFINinitiative F-05
SIG-XT14-003US rule proposed for fusion machines14CORROBORATEDGOVinitiative F-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Fusion and Frontier Energy.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices