Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

10 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

8.1Devices and confinement platforms

Fusion devices confine plasma with lasers, magnets or both. Evidence is strongest where a laboratory reports a measured result, and weakest where claims rest on company plans.

4.13times

NIF target gain, 2025⁵

69MJ

JET energy over about 5 seconds⁴

1,337seconds

WEST plasma duration¹

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Laser inertial confinement	target gain of 4.13 on one facility; upgrade planned	⁵⁶	Reported
Tokamaks	JET energy record; WEST and EAST duration records	⁴¹²	Reported
Stellarators	long-pulse triple product record at Wendelstein 7-X	³⁴²	Reported
Company devices	plant and device plans are company statements; SPARC date unverified	²⁴²³²⁹	Inferred

Couplings

INF ↔ FIN devices and funding
INF → ENE capability and firm power
MIN → INF fuel and materials

Evidence to bind in 2027

performance on a common basis
facility electricity per shot or pulse

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-02 Energy
XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.2Fuel cycle, tritium and energy balance

Deuterium-tritium plants need tritium, bred inside the plant from lithium, and start-up tritium from outside. Supply of both is thinly measured.

0 to 27.7kg

tritium free for fusion in 2055, scenario range²⁰

≈25kg

civilian tritium in 2024, one commentary²²

7.4%

lithium-6 in natural lithium²¹

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Tritium supply	heavy-water reactors are the only commercial source	²⁰²¹	Reported
Tritium inventory	about 25 kg in 2024 in one commentary; weak evidence	²²	Reported
Breeding	blankets must reach a breeding ratio above one	²¹³⁹	Reported
Energy balance	facility electricity per shot or pulse not bound	⁵	Expert input

Couplings

MIN → INF tritium supply
ENE ↔ INF facility power
WAT → INF cooling water

Evidence to bind in 2027

tritium inventory and start-up demand
facility electricity and cooling water

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-02 Energy
XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.3Materials, lithium and supply chain

Plants need enriched lithium, magnets, structural materials and plasma-facing components. Only lithium-6 has evidence in this edition.

30 to 90%

lithium-6 enrichment in blanket designs²¹

0supply

current lithium-6 supply, effectively zero²¹

2026preprint

lithium enrichment analysis, seen in search only³³

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Lithium-6	supply effectively zero according to one presentation	²¹	Reported
Enrichment routes	cost and hazard concerns in one preprint; not opened	³³	Inferred
Magnets and structures	not documented in sources read	⁴¹	Expert input
Research facilities	shared test facilities named in strategies	¹⁵¹²	Inferred

Couplings

MIN → INF lithium and materials
TRD → INF export controls
FIN → INF fabrication

Evidence to bind in 2027

lithium-6 capacity
component lifetimes and fabrication capacity

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-02 Energy
XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Private funding rose to a record in the 12 months to July 2026 and public programmes expanded. Workforce numbers are the thin part of the evidence.

4.48USD billion

private funding, 12 months to July 2026¹⁰

14.24USD billion

cumulative private funding¹⁰

>2.5GBP billion

UK funding over five years¹⁵

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Private funding	USD 4.48 billion in 12 months; 56 companies in the survey	¹⁰	Reported
Public funding	UK, German and Chinese commitments on different bases	¹⁵¹⁶¹⁹	Reported
Programmes	US milestone programme funded eight companies in 2023	¹³	Reported
Workforce	skills programmes announced in the UK; no figure bound	¹⁵	Expert input

Couplings

FIN → INF scale-up
FIN → GOV public programmes
HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

public funding totals
workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-02 Energy
XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.5Safety, licensing and governance watch

The nearest effect of fusion on other infrastructure is regulatory. The US has proposed a licensing framework, and the UK, Germany and the EU have plans.

2026proposed rule

US rule on fusion machines, 26 February 2026¹⁴

2026comments

comment deadline 27 May 2026¹⁴

2029submission

planned UK Development Consent Order for STEP, March 2029¹⁵

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
US licensing	fusion machines under byproduct material rules of part 30	¹⁴	Reported
US plan	roadmap of October 2025 targets power by the mid-2030s	¹²	Reported
UK and Germany	strategy of March 2026; action plan of October 2025	¹⁵¹⁶	Reported
EU and international	call for evidence in 2025; IAEA group and outlook	¹⁸⁹	Reported

Couplings

GOV → INF licensing route
GOV → FIN financing conditions
GOV → TRD fuel transfer rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

final rule text
national waste and siting rules

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-02 Energy
XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), SPARC status, first plasma reported as a 2027 target, taken from search-result summaries and secondary pages. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13American Nuclear Society (ed.), DOE picks eight fusion companies to design pilot power plants (news report of 2 June 2023; USD 46 million milestone programme; the page was read to the paywall). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Systems in depth

8.1Devices and confinement platforms

Couplings

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.2Fuel cycle, tritium and energy balance

Couplings

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.3Materials, lithium and supply chain

Couplings

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Couplings

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.5Safety, licensing and governance watch

Couplings

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

Notes

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