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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Traffic

Objects catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network

34,054objects

19,154 spacecraft; 14,900 rocket bodies and other debris.

Reported2026NASA4

INF · Satellites

Active satellites counted by a public tracker

17,099satellites

about two thirds from one constellation, a tracker count.

Reported2026tracker3

INF · Launch

Payloads placed in orbit in 2025

>4,000payloads

more than 300 launches; about ten payloads a day.

Reported2025ESA2

INF · Collision timing

CRASH Clock estimate, June 2025

5.5days

164 days in 2018; a preprint estimate, not a forecast.

Reported2025preprint9

CLI · Atmosphere

Aluminum oxides from satellites reentering in 2022

≈17metric tons

modelled estimate; a constellation scenario exceeds 360 a year.

Reported2022journal10

FIN · Navigation

Average cost of a GPS outage to the United States

≈1USD billion a day

study estimate; up to 50% higher in planting season.

Reported2019NIST15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through space, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries space risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATNo documented coupling at baseline; launch-site water use is not bound.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENESome high-voltage lines tripped and transformers overheated during the May 2024 storm in the US Midwest7.SPW → ENEReported EQL 3
FOOGPS-guided tractors veered off course or stopped in May 2024; one account puts average farm loss near USD 17,0007; precision agriculture is a GPS sector in the NIST-sponsored study15.INF → FOOReported EQL 3
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; emergency communications and timing use are not bound here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline; Earth observation for ecosystems sits in a separate edition.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIReentry aluminum oxides may affect the upper atmosphere; the evidence is modelled10.INF → CLIInferred EQL 3
INFThe core system: 34,054 catalogued objects, 17,099 active satellites, rules still forming.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINIndustry size and investment figures were not opened; a 2024 industry summary is cited as unverified23.FIN → INFInferred EQL 1
DATNavigation and communications links carry data for other systems; the 2022 satellite network attack shows the path20.INF → DATReported EQL 3
AICNo documented coupling to other compute platforms at baseline; onboard processing claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINMaterials and propellant supply for satellites and launch are not bound in this edition.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
TRDLaunch access, spectrum filings and export controls shape who can operate; the ITU records frequency assignments18.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on space, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemorbital traffic, space weather and navigation couplecompound loss of controlTHIN
GS-01Waterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-02Energystorm effects on power lines reported7storm exposureTHIN
GS-03FoodGPS-guided farming disrupted in 20247planting-season outagePARTIAL
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceGPS benefit estimate15; industry size not opened23timing and loss exposurePARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to satellite serviceswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatereentry emissions modelled10upper-atmosphere effectsTHIN
GS-08Disasterspace weather scale and watches8forecast skill6PARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurenavigation, timing and communications links1520single-point dependencePARTIAL
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationEarth observation is a use of orbit; its edition is separatenone documented hereTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalsatellite network attack of 20222019ground-segment compromisePARTIAL
GS-14Policytreaty, FCC rule and EU proposal131114fragmented rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed debris and storm literature61027common cataloguesGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1029/2024GL109280back
  6. 15NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 8NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 19CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 13United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 14General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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