Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Orbital hardware and traffic
    2. 8.2 Launch, reentry and atmospheric footprint
    3. 8.3 Space weather, navigation and the ground segment
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Security, law and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Orbital hardware and traffic

Satellites, rocket bodies and debris share a small number of orbital shells. Counts are strong where a catalogue exists, and differ by basis between catalogues.

34,054objects

catalogued by the US network, August 20264

17,099satellites

active, October 20263

>4,000payloads

launched in 20252

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Catalogued population19,154 spacecraft and 14,900 rocket bodies and other debris on 4 August 20264Reported
Active satellites17,099 counted; about two thirds from one constellation3Reported
Debris estimatesover 50,000 above 10 cm and over 1.2 million above 1 cm at the end of 20241Reported
Small debrisabout 100 million millimeter-sized pieces, estimated statistically5Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ SPW drag and storms
  • INF → DAT navigation and communications
  • GOV → INF disposal rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • catalogues on a common basis
  • conjunction and maneuver counts

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.2Launch, reentry and atmospheric footprint

Launches and reentries are rising. Their effect on the upper atmosphere is modelled and not yet measured on a common basis.

>300launches

in 20252

≈17metric tons

aluminum oxides from reentry in 2022, modelled10

>360metric tons a year

constellation reentry scenario, modelled10

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Launch cadencemore than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 20252Reported
Reentry ratemore than three intact satellites or rocket bodies a day on average12Reported
Aluminum oxidesabout 17 metric tons in 2022 and 29.5% above the natural aluminum level, by model10Reported
Measured emissionsnot published on a common basis2930Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → CLI upper-atmosphere effects
  • GOV → INF disposal and demise rules
  • FIN → INF launch growth

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • measured emissions by species
  • launch emissions inventory

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.3Space weather, navigation and the ground segment

Navigation, timing and communications links tie orbit to farming, finance and power on the ground. A severe storm and a cyberattack each showed a path of failure.

G5storm class

May 2024, first in over two decades7

≈1USD billion a day

average GPS outage cost to the US, study estimate15

24 Feb2022

satellite network attack in Ukraine20

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Storm effectsraised drag on thousands of satellites; ICESat-2 entered safe mode7Reported
Navigation on the groundGPS-guided tractors veered off course in May 20247Reported
Navigation valueabout USD 1.4 trillion of US private-sector benefit from 1984 to 201715Reported
Ground segmentterminals were damaged by the 2022 network attack, per the company2019Reported

Couplings

  • SPW → INF drag
  • INF → FOO GPS-guided farming
  • DAT → INF ground-segment attack

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • backup navigation capacity
  • outage costs outside the United States

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Space is a large and growing economy, but the figures here rest on summaries and on one study of GPS. Workforce and public finance are the thin parts.

1.4USD trillion

GPS private-sector benefit estimate, 1984 to 201715

613USD billion

2024 space economy, search summary only23

25years

continuous human presence on the ISS, November 202517

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
GPS benefitabout USD 1.4 trillion, 2017 dollars, in the United States15Reported
Industry sizea record figure for 2024 in a report not opened2322Inferred
Public programmesnational and EU funding not consolidated here41Expert input
Workforceno figure bound22Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF launch and satellite growth
  • DAT → FIN navigation value
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • industry size from the report itself
  • workforce and launch capacity

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.5Security, law and governance watch

Space activity is governed by treaties, licences, voluntary guidelines and a draft EU regulation. The rules are tightening, and agreement on the largest proposal is slow.

5years

FCC post-mission disposal benchmark for low-orbit space stations, 202211

78signatories

Artemis Accords, 28 October 202616

17working party meetings

on the EU Space Act proposal by November 202514

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Treatiesliability for damage is absolute on Earth and fault-based in space132526Reported
Licensing and disposalFCC five-year rule adopted 29 September 202211Reported
EU proposalall Member States held scrutiny reservations in November 20251424Reported
Spectrum and sustainabilityITU records assignments; COPUOS guidelines are voluntary1833Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → INF disposal and traffic rules
  • GOV → DAT cyber requirements
  • GOV → TRD export controls and spectrum

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text and status of the EU act
  • adoption of disposal rules

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence
  • SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1029/2024GL109280back
  7. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth’s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 20UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 19CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 11FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 14General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 13United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 18ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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