Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 43 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.143 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  8. 8NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  10. 10Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1029/2024GL109280 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  13. 13United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boley, A.C. and Byers, M., Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth, Scientific Reports 11, 10642, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth’s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of State (ed.), press statement on the Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test of November 2021, 15 November 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. US Department of State, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution 77/41 on destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, December 2022, cited from memory; the document viewer returned no text. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (ed.), IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. IADC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Royal Academy of Engineering (ed.), Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance and vulnerabilities, March 2011, cited from memory; the page returned an error. Royal Academy of Engineering, London. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), Russian cyber operations against Ukraine: declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU, 10 May 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), NASA Procedural Requirements and Standard Practices for orbital debris mitigation, 2019 edition, named in the FCC order and cited from memory. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA Space Debris Mitigation Requirements, Issue 1, 30 October 2023, taken from a file name on the Zero Debris page. European Space Agency, Darmstadt. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hayakawa, H. and others, The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in 2024 May: A Flash Data Report, The Astrophysical Journal, 2025, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secure World Foundation (ed.), Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Secure World Foundation, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tsurutani, B.T. and others, The extreme magnetic storm of 1 to 2 September 1859, Journal of Geophysical Research 108(A7), 1268, 2003, cited from memory. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FCC (ed.), authorisation of the Kuiper satellite system, July 2020, cited from memory. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-18
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 space edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-18NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-18-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Space and Orbital Infrastructure; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Space and Orbital Infrastructure, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on Space and Orbital Infrastructure for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Space and Orbital Infrastructure"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Exponential Technology Report · XT-18"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-18/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-18 edition Reports Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-18 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Space and Orbital Infrastructure.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices