Readings from the other desks
The space baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 space readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading orbit as shared physical infrastructure under growing load. Traffic is large, the hazards couple through storms, navigation and the ground segment, and the rules are still forming. Evidence is strongest for catalogue counts and one storm, and weakest for emissions, supply and recovery.
ORB-001 · SPW-005 · NAV-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people space arrives as a launch video, a navigation app or a headline about debris. The baseline asks that public debate separate counts, estimates and models, and keep the ground services that depend on orbit in view.
ORB-001 · NAV-007 · SPW-005
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. The GPS benefit estimate and the 2024 farm losses show where finance-readiness evidence will matter157. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
NAV-007 · SPW-005
NEXUS
Synthesis
Orbital infrastructure is well described by catalogue counts and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should reconcile catalogues, test the storm pathway and publish a comparable emissions inventory.
SYS-012 · Q-01 · Q-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for space. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Orbit is a shared resource that carries navigation, timing and communications. Treating it as infrastructure shows who depends on it and what a shared failure would cost.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
One orbit, many dependents
A national catalogue, an agency estimate and a public tracker answer different questions. This edition labels each and asks for a common basis before they are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Counts are not equal
A storm is a natural event, and a crowded orbit makes its effects larger. One storm in 2024 and one preprint model show the pattern without proving the limit.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Storms and traffic compound
Disposal rules, licensing and safety standards are tightening, and the main EU proposal is still being negotiated. The gap between launch growth and rule adoption is the near-term question.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Rules lag the traffic
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 space readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Space risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outer Space Treaty25 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | principles of state activity |
| Liability Convention13 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | liability for damage |
| Registration Convention26 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | registration of objects |
| ITU Radio Regulations18 | ITU | global | IN FORCE | frequency assignments and interference |
| FCC five-year disposal rule11 | FCC | US licensees and market entrants | ADOPTED 2022 | post-mission disposal |
| ESA Zero Debris approach1238 | ESA | ESA missions and partners | PUBLISHED 2023 | mitigation requirements |
| COPUOS sustainability guidelines33 | United Nations | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | long-term sustainability |
| IADC mitigation guidelines34 | IADC | agency members | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | debris mitigation |
| EU Space Act proposal1424 | European Commission | EU | DRAFT | safety, resilience, sustainability |
| Artemis Accords16 | NASA and signatory states | 78 signatories | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | principles for exploration |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers space assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about space and orbital infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals and preprints; treaties, standards bodies and agencies; catalogue and agency reports; industry summaries
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker and Linares6 | preprint | 2024 | supports | storm drag |
| Thiele and others9 | preprint | 2025 | supports | collision timing |
| Ferreira and others10 | journal article | 2024 | supports | reentry aluminum oxides |
| Maloney and others30 | journal article | 2025 | context | atmospheric modelling |
| Hayakawa and others39 | journal article | 2025 | context | May 2024 storm |
| Ryan and others29 | journal article | 2022 | context | launch emissions |
| Kessler and Cour-Palais27 | journal article | 1978 | framework | collision frequency |
| Boley and Byers28 | journal article | 2021 | context | constellation risks |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsurutani and others42 | journal article | 2003 | framework | extreme storm of 1859 |
| Royal Academy of Engineering35 | report | 2011 | framework | navigation vulnerabilities |
| Secure World Foundation40 | report | 2025 | context | counterspace capabilities |
| Space Foundation23 | industry report | 2025 | context | economy size, unverified |
| SIA 2026 report page22 | industry body | 2026 | context | industry report, figures not read |
| Kuiper authorisation43 | regulator | 2020 | context | constellation licensing |
| EU secure connectivity regulation41 | EU regulation | 2023 | context | public constellation |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liability Convention page13 | United Nations | 1972 | supports | liability |
| Outer Space Treaty25 | United Nations | 1967 | framework | principles |
| Registration Convention26 | United Nations | 1975 | framework | registration |
| FCC Second Report and Order11 | FCC | 2022 | supports | five-year rule |
| ESA Zero Debris approach12 | ESA | 2023 | supports | mitigation target |
| ESA mitigation requirements38 | ESA | 2023 | context | requirements |
| NASA mitigation practices37 | NASA | 2019 | context | standard practices |
| IADC guidelines34 | IADC | 2025 | context | guidelines |
| COPUOS guidelines33 | United Nations | 2019 | context | long-term sustainability |
| UN resolution 77/4132 | United Nations | 2022 | context | anti-satellite tests |
| US statement on a 2021 test31 | US State Department | 2021 | context | debris event |
| EU Council note14 | Council of the EU | 2025 | supports | negotiation status |
| Commission proposal24 | European Commission | 2025 | supports | proposal date |
| ITU space services page18 | ITU | 2026 | supports | assignment recording |
| Artemis Accords page16 | NASA | 2026 | supports | signatory count |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NASA quarterly newsletter4 | NASA | 2026 | supports | catalogue box score |
| NASA debris FAQ5 | NASA | 2026 | supports | tracked and small debris |
| ESA Space Environment Report 20251 | ESA | 2025 | supports | debris estimates |
| ESA Space Environment Report 20262 | ESA | 2026 | supports | launch counts |
| Public satellite statistics3 | independent tracker | 2026 | supports | active satellites |
| NASA storm article7 | NASA | 2025 | supports | storm effects |
| NOAA scales page8 | NOAA | 2026 | supports | G5 description |
| NIST GPS study page15 | NIST | 2019 | supports | GPS benefits |
| ISS page17 | NASA | 2025 | context | station presence |
| EUSPA Galileo page21 | EUSPA | 2026 | context | navigation system |
| CISA advisory19 | CISA | 2022 | supports | satellite network threats |
| UK attribution20 | UK Government | 2022 | supports | network attack |
| EU Council declaration36 | Council of the EU | 2022 | context | attribution |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 15NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA Space Debris Mitigation Requirements, Issue 1, 30 October 2023, taken from a file name on the Zero Debris page. European Space Agency, Darmstadt. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (ed.), IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. IADC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1029/2024GL109280back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hayakawa, H. and others, The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in 2024 May: A Flash Data Report, The Astrophysical Journal, 2025, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth’s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boley, A.C. and Byers, M., Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth, Scientific Reports 11, 10642, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tsurutani, B.T. and others, The extreme magnetic storm of 1 to 2 September 1859, Journal of Geophysical Research 108(A7), 1268, 2003, cited from memory. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Royal Academy of Engineering (ed.), Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance and vulnerabilities, March 2011, cited from memory; the page returned an error. Royal Academy of Engineering, London. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secure World Foundation (ed.), Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Secure World Foundation, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FCC (ed.), authorisation of the Kuiper satellite system, July 2020, cited from memory. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), NASA Procedural Requirements and Standard Practices for orbital debris mitigation, 2019 edition, named in the FCC order and cited from memory. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution 77/41 on destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, December 2022, cited from memory; the document viewer returned no text. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of State (ed.), press statement on the Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test of November 2021, 15 November 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. US Department of State, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), Russian cyber operations against Ukraine: declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU, 10 May 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back