Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Severe storm in a crowded low orbit

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a storm of the 2024 class, or larger, arrives while low orbits hold more satellites than in 2024
Analogues
the May 2024 storm and the CRASH Clock estimate79
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    SPW → INF

    storm heating raises drag on thousands of satellites

    2024

  2. 2

    INF → INF

    many satellites maneuver at once and some lose control

    2025

  3. 3

    INF → DAT

    navigation and communications degrade for hours to days

    2024

  4. 4

    DAT → FOO

    GPS-guided farming and logistics stall

    2024

  5. 5

    SPW → ENE

    power lines and transformers are stressed on the ground

    2024

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    licensing and disposal rules are tested against the event

    2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01 would travel through Space and Orbital Infrastructure’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 SPW to infrastructureStorm heating raises drag on thousands of satellites. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to infrastructureMany satellites maneuver at once and some lose control. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 2
03 Infrastructure to datNavigation and communications degrade for hours to days. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 3
04 DAT to foodGPS-guided farming and logistics stall. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 4
05 SPW to energyPower lines and transformers are stressed on the ground. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructureLicensing and disposal rules are tested against the event. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01 (2026); Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Severe storm in a crowded low orbit. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Space and Orbital Infrastructure.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices