Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 space agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 space edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Severe storm in a crowded low orbit
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the space candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    How can object counts from national networks, ESA and public trackers be reconciled on one basis?

    INI-XT18-CAT-01 · catalogues on a common basis; first output: reconciliation table.

  2. Q-02

    How many satellites would face loss of control in a severe storm, and how long would recovery take?

    INI-XT18-WXS-02 · storm exposure; first output: exposure estimate.

  3. Q-03

    Which sectors lose navigation or timing first, and for how long, in a multi-day outage?

    INI-XT18-NAV-03 · navigation and timing dependence; first output: dependence map.

  4. Q-04

    What do launches and reentries inject into the upper atmosphere, by species?

    INI-XT18-EMS-04 · launch and reentry emissions; first output: emissions inventory.

  5. Q-05

    Which licensing and disposal rules apply in each orbital regime, and how do they differ?

    INI-XT18-LAW-05 · rules and licensing map; first output: rules overlay.

  6. Q-06

    What is the supply base for satellite hardware, ground stations and launch?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: dependence map.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce exists for operations, launch and space safety?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 space portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT18-CAT-01Catalogues on a common basisInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT18-WXS-02Storm exposureInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT18-NAV-03Navigation and timing dependenceInitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT18-EMS-04Launch and reentry emissionsInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT18-LAW-05Rules and licensing mapInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT18-2027-01Storm in a crowded orbit Universe missionMissionQ-02Candidate

7.3The pathway

The space edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on infrastructure, cyber and Earth observation, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and cyber editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    space dependence and orbital readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-09 infrastructure · GS-12 Earth observation · GS-13 cyber

    GS-09 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    traffic, weather, navigation, atmosphere, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-18 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the space candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the space candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT18-2027-01 · Storm in a crowded orbit Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
ORB-001 · catalogued objectsINI-XT18-CAT-01catalogues on a common basisPUBLIC
ORB-003 · debris estimatesINI-XT18-CAT-01catalogues on a common basisPUBLIC
SPW-005 · storm effectsINI-XT18-WXS-02storm exposurePUBLIC
SPW-006 · collision timingINI-XT18-WXS-02storm exposurePUBLIC
NAV-007 · GPS benefitINI-XT18-NAV-03navigation and timing dependencePUBLIC
ENV-009 · reentry emissionsINI-XT18-EMS-04 · key F reviewlaunch and reentry emissionsPUBLIC
GOV-011 · disposal rulesINI-XT18-LAW-05rules and licensing mapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT18-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
NASA Orbital Debris Quarterly NewsNASAquarterlyORB-001
ESA Space Environment ReportESAannualORB-003
Public satellite statisticsindependent trackercontinuousORB-002
NOAA space weather scales and watchesNOAAper eventSPW-005
Preprint servers and journals on collision riskpeer review and preprintscontinuousSPW-006
EU Council and Parliament records on the Space ActEU institutionsper meetingGOV-010
FCC orders on orbital debrisFCCper orderGOV-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT18-001CRASH Clock fell to 5.5 days in a preprint9PARTIALINF · SPWresearch question Q-02
SIG-XT18-002Thousands of satellites faced added drag in May 20247CORROBORATEDSPW · INFinitiative Q-02
SIG-XT18-003A 2022 attack disabled terminals across a satellite network20CORROBORATEDDAT · INFresearch question Q-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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