Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 43 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.143 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Union of Concerned Scientists (ed.), UCS Satellite Database (data current through 1 May 2023; 7,560 operating satellites; page last updated 2 January 2024; updates paused). Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  2. 2USGS (ed.), Landsat 9 (mission page; launched 27 September 2021; 705 km sun-synchronous orbit; 16-day repeat cycle with an 8-day offset from Landsat 8; data at no charge). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3USGS (ed.), Landsat Data Access (products free to download since 2008; Collection 2 available from commercial cloud with catalogue metadata). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4USGS (ed.), Landsat 10 (mission page; 26 spectral bands; 18-day revisit; 10 to 20 m and 60 m resolution; launch target 2031; draft request for proposal for the spacecraft on 18 May 2026). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  5. 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7European Commission (ed.), About Copernicus (Earth observation component of the EU space programme; six services; free and openly accessible; archived site). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8European Commission (ed.), Copernicus (policy page; nearly 800 European companies active in Earth observation with EUR 1.8 billion revenue; market projected near EUR 6 billion by 2033; 96% SMEs or startups; Commission statements). Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9ESA (ed.), Sentinel-6 (mission page; Sentinel-6B launched 17 November 2025; reference altimetry mission to 2030 at least; 95% of the ocean measured). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10ESA (ed.), Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, about page (free access through quotas for individual use; larger use on commercial terms). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (page only; the headline figures were not read). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  12. 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
  13. 13GCOS (ed.), Essential Climate Variables (list of 55 variables: 16 atmosphere, 20 land, 19 ocean; last updated 20 December 2024). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14GCOS (ed.), GCOS publications index (latest status report listed is GCOS-240, 2021; earlier report 2015; report text not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  15. 15ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (web page of 1 April 2025; about 40,000 tracked objects; about 11,000 active payloads; estimated 1.2 million debris objects larger than 1 cm; data to end 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16STAC community (ed.), About STAC (SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog; open source community; Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence; no adoption figures on the page). Radiant Earth and contributors. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17OGC (ed.), About OGC (founded 1994; non-profit; more than 150 open geospatial standards stated; offices in Belgium and the United Kingdom). Open Geospatial Consortium, Wakefield. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  18. 18Google DeepMind (ed.), AlphaEarth Foundations (blog post of 30 July 2025; 10 m embeddings; 24% lower error rate than models tested; over 1.4 trillion embedding footprints per year; vendor announcement, weak evidence, performance self-reported). Google DeepMind, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Google (ed.), Earth Engine (product page; multi-petabyte catalogue; over eighty petabytes stated; commercial use available and free for academic and research use; vendor statements, weak evidence). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21ICEYE (ed.), ICEYE launches four new satellites aboard Transporter-17 (release; launch 7 July 2026; 76 satellites launched in total; up to 16 cm resolution claimed; vendor announcement, weak evidence). ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22US Department of Commerce (ed.), Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs (licensing of private remote sensing space systems under 15 CFR Part 960 and 51 U.S.C. 60101 et seq.; tiers not described on the page). Office of Space Commerce, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  24. 24Planetary Society (ed.), You just saved NASA budget (analysis of H.R. 6938; Earth Science USD 2,153.0 million against USD 1,033.2 million requested; NASA Science USD 7.25 billion; House 8 January 2026, Senate 15 January 2026; signature awaited on the page). The Planetary Society, Pasadena. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25POST-CLOSE, context only: UN-GGIM (ed.), Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (sixteenth session 5 to 7 August 2026; 282 delegates from 80 Member States; Integrated Geospatial Information Framework; World Geospatial Information Congress planned 16 to 19 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Planet Labs PBC (ed.), fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results (revenue USD 307.7 million, up 26%; 40 satellites launched in the fiscal year), taken from search-result summaries; the release page returned an access error. Planet Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Vantor (ed.), WorldView Legion constellation (six satellites launched 2 May 2024 to 4 February 2025; 30 cm class; capacity figures differ across summaries), taken from search-result summaries. Vantor, Westminster. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: ICEYE (ed.), release on the Bandwagon-5 launch of 20 October 2026 (84 SAR satellites launched in total), taken from search-result summaries. ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6 (launch 4 November 2025; fourth satellite of the first Sentinel-1 series), taken from search-result summaries; the ESA page returned an access error. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), Earth Observing System Data and Information System archive statistics (59.24 petabytes on 30 September 2021; projections to 2030 differ by page), taken from search-result summaries; the statistics page returned an access error. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baltic and Nordic States submission to ICAO on GNSS interference (about 123,000 flights affected from January to April 2025; April figures differ across outlets), taken from trade-press summaries. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: White House Office of Management and Budget (ed.), fiscal year 2026 budget request for NASA Earth science (cuts of more than 50%; more than 40 missions proposed for termination), taken from search-result summaries. Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, M.C. et al., High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change, Science 342, 850 to 853, 2013; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wulder, M.A. et al., Opening the archive: how free data has enabled the science and monitoring promise of Landsat, Remote Sensing of Environment 122, 2 to 10, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Drusch, M. et al., Sentinel-2: ESA optical high-resolution mission for GMES operational services, Remote Sensing of Environment 120, 25 to 36, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Torres, R. et al., GMES Sentinel-1 mission, Remote Sensing of Environment 120, 9 to 24, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gorelick, N. et al., Google Earth Engine: planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone, Remote Sensing of Environment 202, 18 to 27, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution 41/65, Principles relating to remote sensing of the Earth from outer space, 1986, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1986. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), proposal for an EU Space Act (regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities), June 2025, cited from memory; the proposal page returned not found. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme, 2021, cited from memory; the legal text page returned no content. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy, third edition, 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-19
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 Earth observation edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-19NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-19-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-19 edition Reports Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-19 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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