Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table10 notesNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ZAF-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province

    Driver
    intense rainfall and cut-off lows
    Exposure
    informal settlements, roads, river corridors
    Vulnerability
    dense low-lying housing; damaged networks
    Capacity
    disaster-management framework; warnings25
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ZAF-WAT-002

    Wastewater and supply system failure

    Driver
    poor maintenance, power loss, flood damage
    Exposure
    rivers and towns downstream of critical systems
    Vulnerability
    47% of systems critical9
    Capacity
    Green and Blue Drop oversight; turnaround evidence not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → HLT, BIO, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ZAF-ENE-003

    Electricity supply shortfall

    Driver
    low fleet availability and demand peaks
    Exposure
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    availability near 58%5
    Capacity
    load-shedding fell 82% in a year; new capacity528
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-ZAF-CLI-004

    Multi-year drought and water restriction

    Driver
    successive dry seasons
    Exposure
    metropolitan supply, irrigated farming
    Vulnerability
    high urban losses; dependence on few dams
    Capacity
    demand management proven in Cape Town 201818
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building and land-use records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSnational wastewater, drinking-water and water-loss assessments are published89
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: South African Weather Service and National Disaster Management Centre records · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDthe Disaster Management Act sets the planning framework; its use is not bound25
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: fuel, water and grain reserve data · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: disaster-response after-action records · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSload-shedding energy fell 82% in a year, but water-works power continuity is not bound5
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: reconstruction records after the 2022 and 2025 floods · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDthe Climate Change Act provides for adaptation planning; delivery is not bound21
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: social-grant and unemployment-insurance records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: Prudential Authority and SARB statistics29 · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDthe Disaster Management Act sets national and provincial centres; function is not bound25
Technical infrastructureLISTEDwastewater condition documented as critical in 47% of systems9
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: municipal engineering and operator registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityADEQUATEa national inventory and a national biodiversity assessment are published213
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.back
  2. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
  3. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
  4. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.back
  5. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back
  6. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
  7. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
  8. 29South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026.back
  9. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
  10. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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