- South Africa 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Wastewater systems in a critical state
47%Up from 39%. Systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.
Reported2025 (released 2026)DWS via PMG9
ENE · Energy
Energy shed by load-shedding, first half
749GWhDown from 4,126 GWh in the first half of 2024. Fleet energy availability was 58%.
Reported2025CSIR5
FOO · Food
Maize harvest, forecast
17.1million tThe third-largest on record if realised. The 2025 harvest was well above average.
Reported2026FAO GIEWS7
HLT · Health
People living with HIV
7.8millionLife expectancy at birth is 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women.
Reported2026Stats SA1
BIO · Biodiversity
Ecosystem threat status, national
Not boundSource: SANBI National Biodiversity Assessment 202513. Blocker: the assessment site refused automated access at evidence close.
Not bound2025SANBI13
SYS · Cross-system
Deaths in the Eastern Cape floods, provincial count
102deathsKwaZulu-Natal recorded 459 deaths in the April 2022 floods.
Reported2025provincial report15
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Many wastewater systems in a critical state; non-revenue water 47.3%; drinking-water quality reported as generally stable. | WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| ENE | Load-shedding energy down 82%; fleet availability near 58%; fossil fuels 83% of electricity. | ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Well above-average 2025 harvest; ample maize supply in 2026. | FOO ← CLI, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | About 7.8 million people living with HIV; life expectancy 65.5 and 71.0 years. | HLT ← WAT, ENE | Reported EQL 5 |
| BIO | Headline figures of the 2025 assessment not bound. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Not bound EQL 1 |
| CLI | Deadly floods in 2022 and 2025; drought of 2015 to 2017 in the Western Cape. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | Ageing water networks and a stressed grid; roads cut in floods. | INF → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
| FIN | Tariffs up 190% since 2014; modest growth projected; insured flood loss not bound. | FIN ← CLI, ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound in this edition. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Mining linkages to power and water not bound in this edition. | MIN → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| TRD | Wheat imported; maize exported; fuel and equipment imports not bound. | TRD → ENE, FOO | Inferred EQL 2 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound grid, water and flood stress | power shortfall with failing wastewater systems | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | 47% of wastewater systems critical9 | treatment failure; pipe loss | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | load-shedding down 82%5 | fleet availability; tariff path | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food | ample maize supply7 | drought; logistics | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | 7.8 million people living with HIV1 | service continuity in outages | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | tariffs up 190% since 20145 | flood loss; municipal finance | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | population concentrated in three provinces1 | service delivery gaps | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | 2035 range submitted3 | extreme rain and drought | PARTIAL |
| GS-08 | Disaster | floods with provincial death tolls1415 | warning to response chain | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | critical wastewater systems9 | maintenance backlog | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | Gauteng holds 25.7% of people1 | urban supply loss | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | 2025 assessment launched13 | headline figures not bound | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | not reviewed | continuity | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | Climate Change Act in place21 | coordination across spheres of government | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | national inventory and assessments published213 | translation to provinces | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
- 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
- 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
- 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
- 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
- 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
- 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
- 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
- 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
- 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back