Key findings

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater treatment systems were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.

Implication

Critical systems discharge poorly treated effluent to rivers that downstream towns, farms and ecosystems depend on. Treatment also needs reliable power, so the result links the water system to the grid. Reading the finding against provincial results matters: the critical share rose in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and fell in Limpopo and Mpumalanga⁹.

What would move it

The next Green Drop special watch report on sewer networks and pump stations, municipal turnaround evidence, and electricity supply to treatment works would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO₂e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use.²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient.³⁴

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count.¹⁴¹⁵

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Energy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014.⁵⁶

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater systems were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.⁸⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Non-revenue water was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year.⁹¹⁰

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   The 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes.⁷

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over.¹

2.7Biodiversity

1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   The 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.¹³

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   The IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast.⁵¹²

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater systems are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
2. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
3. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
5. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
6. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
7. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
8. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
10. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
11. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
12. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
13. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
14. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.back