Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a power shortfall interrupt pumping and treatment in a dense province, and how long would services take to recover?

    INI-ZAF-ENE-01 · grid and water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.

  2. A-02

    Where are wastewater systems in a critical state, and which rivers and settlements sit downstream?

    INI-ZAF-WAT-02 · wastewater and river risk; first output: system-by-system register.

  3. A-03

    How much of urban supply is lost, and what does it cost in energy?

    INI-ZAF-WAT-03 · non-revenue water; first output: loss-and-energy table for five metros.

  4. A-04

    How exposed are food and fertiliser supply to concurrent drought, price and logistics shocks?

    INI-ZAF-FOO-04 · food supply exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood losses fall on households, municipalities and the national budget?

    INI-ZAF-FIN-05 · flood protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do river basins and dams perform under multi-year drought?

    INI-ZAF-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    What is the condition of ecosystems that supply water, and how is it changing?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note against the 2025 assessment.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-ZAF-ENE-01Grid and water continuityInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-ZAF-WAT-02Wastewater and river riskInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-ZAF-WAT-03Non-revenue water and energyInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-ZAF-FOO-04Food supply exposureInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-ZAF-FIN-05Flood protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-ZAF-ENE-01aTwo-province grid and water dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-ZAF-2027-01Power, wastewater and flood Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

South Africa is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in South Africa from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ZAF-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-ZAF-2027-01 · Power, wastewater and flood Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · load-sheddingINI-ZAF-ENE-01grid and water continuityPUBLIC
WAT-005 · Green DropINI-ZAF-WAT-02wastewater and river riskPUBLIC
WAT-006 · water lossINI-ZAF-WAT-03loss and energyPUBLIC
FOO-007 · foodINI-ZAF-FOO-04food supply exposurePUBLIC
CLI-011 · floodsINI-ZAF-FIN-05 · key F reviewflood protection gapPUBLIC
HLT-008 · healthresearch question A-01service continuityPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-ZAF-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather warnings and rainfallSouth African Weather Servicereal timeCLI findings
Grid status and load-sheddingEskomdailyENE findings
Dam levelsDepartment of Water and SanitationweeklyRSK-ZAF-CLI-004
Green, Blue and No Drop reportsDepartment of Water and SanitationperiodicWAT-005
Crop estimatesCrop Estimates Committeemonthly in seasonFOO-007
Crop monitoring briefFAO GIEWSperiodicFOO-007
Population and labour statisticsStatistics South Africaper releaseprofile

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-ZAF-001Load-shedding energy down 82% in a year5CORROBORATEDENE · FINrisk object RSK-ZAF-ENE-003
SIG-ZAF-002Critical wastewater systems up to 47%9CORROBORATEDWAT · HLTinitiative A-02
SIG-ZAF-003Provincial flood tolls in 2022 and 20251415CORROBORATEDCLI · INFresearch question A-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
  2. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
  3. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
  4. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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