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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

5 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water services are the weaker link. Many wastewater systems are in a critical state, and almost half of the water put into supply is lost before it is billed.

47%

wastewater systems critical, 20259

47.3%

non-revenue water, 20259

431billion litres

lost a year in Gauteng9

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Wastewater47% of 848 systems critical; 8% excellent or good89Reported
Drinking watergenerally stable; 8% of systems in critical risk9Reported
Water lossnational non-revenue water 47.3%910Reported
Renewable supplyrenewable water per person not boundFAO AQUASTAT33NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT drought and flood
  • WAT → BIO effluent in rivers

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • per-system and per-municipality scores
  • renewable water per person

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Load-shedding has fallen sharply, but fleet availability is near 58% and fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025.

749GWh

shed in the first half of 20255

58%

fleet energy availability5

83%

fossil share of electricity, 20256

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Load-sheddingenergy shed down 82% year on year5Reported
Availabilityfleet energy availability factor 58%5Reported
Tariffsup 190% since 2014; 8.76% rise for 20265Reported
2025 generation by sourcefull-year shares not boundEskom report27NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
  • CLI → ENE demand peaks
  • ENE → FIN tariffs and municipal budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • 2025 generation by source
  • 2023–2024 emissions inventory

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Food supply is currently ample: the 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 forecast is 17.1 million tonnes.

17.1million t

maize forecast, 20267

19.5million t

cereals forecast, 20267

2million t

maize exports forecast, 2025/267

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Maize2026 forecast 17.1 million tonnes7Reported
Cerealsabout 19.5 million tonnes forecast7Reported
Priceswholesale maize about 30% to 40% lower year on year in March 20267Reported
Household food insecurityprevalence not boundStats SA household survey38NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → FOO drought and heat
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • INF → FOO roads and logistics
  • WAT → FOO irrigation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • household food insecurity
  • import dependence by commodity

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, which makes continuity of care a lifeline question in every outage and flood.

7.8million

people living with HIV, 20261

65.5 · 71.0years

life expectancy, men · women1

10.7%

aged 60 or over1

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
HIVabout 7.8 million people; 12.3% prevalence in the population1Reported
Life expectancy65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women1Reported
Ageing10.7% aged 60 or over1Reported
Water-related illnessnational series not boundMinistry of Health recordsNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT water and sanitation
  • ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
  • CLI → HLT floods and heat
  • INF → HLT access to care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • water-related illness series
  • clinic continuity in outages

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

The National Biodiversity Assessment 2025 was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.

9 Dec2025

assessment launched13

Not bound

ecosystem threat status13

30%

global target by 203041

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Assessmentfourth edition launched 9 December 202513Reported
Threat statusshare of ecosystem types threatened not boundSANBI13NOT BOUND
Protectionshare of land and sea protected not boundSANBI13NOT BOUND
Conditionnot bound outside protected areasSANBI13NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • WAT → BIO effluent in rivers
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem threat status
  • protected-area coverage
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
  2. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
  3. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
  4. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.back
  5. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
  6. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025.back
  8. 28Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.back
  9. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
  10. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back
  11. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
  12. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
  13. 41Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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