Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

9 min read0 figures7 tables31 notesNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 National source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, South Africa by province
    4. B.4 Atlas card, Eastern Cape
    5. B.5 South Africa system card
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
GHG emissions excl. land use (sum of sectors)478.3Mt CO₂e2022Estimated2
GHG emissions incl. land use (sum of sectors)435.1Mt CO₂e2022Estimated2
Energy sector emissions374.1Mt CO₂e2022Reported2
Land-use sink43.2Mt CO₂e2022Reported2
2035 range incl. land use320 to 380Mt CO₂e2035Reported3
Energy shed by load-shedding749GWhH1 2025Reported5
Fleet energy availability factor58%H1 2025Reported5
Wastewater systems in a critical state47%2025Reported9
Non-revenue water47.3%2025Reported9
Maize harvest forecast17.1million t2026Reported7
Population63.5million2026Reported1
Aged 60 or over10.7%2026Reported1
People living with HIV7.8million2026Reported1
Life expectancy at birth, men65.5years2026Reported1
Life expectancy at birth, women71.0years2026Reported1
Deaths in KwaZulu-Natal floods459deaths2022Reported14
Deaths in Eastern Cape floods102deaths2025Reported15
Renewable water per personNot boundm³n/aNOT BOUND33
Ecosystem threat statusNot bound%n/aNOT BOUND13
Household food insecurityNot bound%n/aNOT BOUND38
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • WAT
  • ENE
  • FOO
  • HLT
  • BIO
  • CLI
  • INF
  • FIN
  • TRD
  • MIN
Table B.3National source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Mid-year population estimates1national statisticsnational2002–2026annualprofile · HLT
National inventory2national technical authoritynational2000–2022periodicCLI · ENE
Second NDC34government and independent assessmentnational2035periodicCLI
Electricity statistics56research council and think tanknational2025annualENE
Crop monitoring7UN agencynational2026periodicFOO
Green, Blue and No Drop8910ministrynational and provincial2023–2025periodicWAT
IMF country documents1112international bodynational2025–2026annualFIN
Biodiversity assessment13national agencynational2025periodicBIO
Flood tolls1415provincial authorities via pressprovincial2022 · 2025per eventCLI
Attribution and drought studies161718peer-reviewedregional2018–2022per studyCLI
Legal texts2123242526governmentnational1998–2024per amendmentstandards
Cross-checks and capacity statistics31323443UN agencies, IRENA and IEAnational2024–2026annuallisted as fill sources
Series records4849Reports seriesseries2026per editionmethod and peers

B.3Regional reading, South Africa by province

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected populations, 20261

16.3million

Gauteng

12.3million

KwaZulu-Natal

1.4million

Northern Cape

25.7%

share of people in Gauteng

Table B.4Regional reading, South Africa by province
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
Gautengurban water loss, wastewater stress, grid dependencefinance, industry, water supplynon-revenue water9
KwaZulu-Natalfloods, wastewater stressports, industry, housingfloods 202214
Eastern Capefloods, rural service gapsrural communities, roadsfloods 202515
Western Capedrought and water restrictioncities, irrigated farmingDay Zero crisis 201818
Limpopo and Mpumalangawastewater results improvedpower, mining, farmingGreen Drop 20259
Free State and Northern Capecritical wastewater systemssmall towns, farmingGreen Drop 20259

B.4Atlas card, Eastern Cape

  • province
  • floods
  • rural
  • roads
Systems in view
water, roads, health and homes
Defining events
June 2025 floods, 102 deaths by the provincial count15
Couplings
CLI → INF; CLI → WAT; INF → HLT
Capability evidence
not bound
Gaps
recovery progress; wastewater condition; clinic continuity
Agenda items
A-01 · A-02

The share of Eastern Cape wastewater systems in a critical state rose from 39% to 54% between assessments [9].

WATER

Critical share of systems

Roads and bridges failed in the June 2025 floods, which delayed access to affected communities. Source for extent: not bound; blocker: not retrieved.

ROADS

Cut by floodwater

Clinic access during and after the floods is not bound. Source: provincial health department records. Blocker: not retrieved.

HEALTH

Clinic continuity

B.5South Africa system card

The card through which South Africa appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5South Africa system card
SystemBaseline stateCoupling to watchCoverage
Watermany critical wastewater systemspower loss into water worksPARTIAL
Energyload-shedding down; availability near 58%supply shortfallPARTIAL
Foodample maize supplydrought and logisticsPARTIAL
Healthlarge HIV population on a long-term care pathservice continuity in outagesPARTIAL
Biodiversityassessment 2025 not boundecosystem conditionTHIN

Context

Archetype
upper-middle-income economy with a coal-dominated grid and strained water services
Population
63.5 million (2026)1
Trade
maize exporter and wheat importer; wider trade not bound7
Hazard
floods with provincial death tolls1415

South Africa’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

AFRICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

South African evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition South Africa is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000–2022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.back
  2. 3Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.back
  3. 5Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), “Loadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.” CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.back
  4. 9Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), “Green, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,” Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.back
  5. 7Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.back
  6. 1Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.back
  7. 14Bloomberg (ed.), “Death toll from flooding in South Africa’s KZN rises to 459.” Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.back
  8. 15Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.back
  9. 33Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.back
  10. 13South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.back
  11. 38Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.back
  12. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Africa: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.back
  13. 6Ember (ed.), “South Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.” Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 8Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.back
  15. 10Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.back
  16. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026.back
  17. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.back
  18. 16I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.back
  19. 17F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., “Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.back
  20. 18H. Muller, “Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change,” Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174–176, 2018.back
  21. 21Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
  22. 23Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.back
  23. 24Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019.back
  24. 25Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.back
  25. 26Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998.back
  26. 31UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.back
  27. 32International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.back
  28. 34United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.back
  29. 43International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  30. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
  31. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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