GCRI · Reports

Country and regional series

Country and regional reports study the portfolio of risks a nation or a shared region carries, from hazards and infrastructure to finance and public health. Their evidence comes from published statistics, national research and international datasets that do not always agree. This page sets out how such studies are sourced, who reviews them, how national data vintages and revisions are tracked, and what the evidence can and cannot support for the institutions that plan and budget.

01Register

Country and regional series on the record.

02The question

Country and regional series: how the risk develops.

National and transboundary portfolio studies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.

Mechanism

Data vintages and revisions

Published statistics are revised, rebased and sometimes discontinued. A report that cites a figure without its vintage can be contradicted by the next release, and readers cannot tell whether the change is in the world or in the data.

Mechanism

Outside-in authorship

Studies written without researchers based in the country risk misreading institutions and local data, and weaken ownership of the result. Contributor roles and affiliations make that balance visible to readers and reviewers.

Mechanism

Comparability across borders

Neighbouring countries measure with different definitions, classifications and reference periods. Transboundary comparisons that ignore this produce differences that are artefacts of method rather than of risk.

Mechanism

Sensitivity and review pressure

National findings can affect credit, investment and reputation, so review may be pressed to soften them. Recorded review comments and stated editorial independence protect both the authors and the reviewing government.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure worldwide.

Population density, night lights and flood water across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
Provider
NASA LANCE FIRMS
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026

04In the five domains

Country editions read each domain at national scale.

Country editions are written with national programmes; national data and decisions stay national. Editions carry contextual identifiers under NS-9 of the proposed Nexus Standards.

  • National evidence offers.
  • Corrections from national institutions.
05Monitor

Series production desk.

The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Series production desk

Country and regional series · Annual synthesis · Edition 6

Data check behind planGCRI · Reports

Editions in production

Annual synthesisGlobalData check78W22
Country profile 7CountryPeer review99W17
Water outlookSectoralDrafting41W40
Methods note 4MethodsReleased100done

Data check, annual synthesis

Values traced, %87 of 100 requiredLabels attached, %82 of 100 requiredUncertainty stated, %74 of 100 required

Edition pipeline

  1. Outlineboard
  2. Draftauthors
  3. Data checkevery value
  4. Peer reviewtwo rounds
  5. Editorialdecision
  6. ReleaseDOI
  7. Correctionsversioned
Series production desk: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Country and regional series.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
06Indicators

What is measured, and how well.

Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.

IndicatorUnitCadenceSource typeLabel
Authors with an in-country or in-region affiliationpercent of authorsper reportContributor metadata matched to institution registryDECLARED
Contributor roles recordedpercent of contributors with CRediT rolesper reportContributor metadataDECLARED
Published statistics cited with vintage and release datepercent of statistical citationsper versionEditorial audit of referencesREPORTED
Age of the most recent data usedmonths since reference period endper indicatorSource metadataOBSERVED
National and government review commentscount received; percent with recorded responseper review roundReview comment logPublished statistics
Local-language sources assessedpercent of cited worksper reportReference list metadataREPORTED
Corrections after publicationcount per report versionper versionVersion history and correction noticesPublished statistics
07Twin and cascade simulator

Model country and regional series as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
08Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.

SourceWhat it givesLicence class
World Bank Open DataDevelopment indicators by country with source notes and revision historyCC BY 4.0
UN SDG Global DatabasePublished indicator series reported by countries and custodian agenciesFree to use, United Nations terms
National statistical officesPublished statistics, release calendars and revision policiesPublic records, terms per office
National research repositories such as HAL and CORETheses, reports and articles from national institutions, including local-language workLicence per deposit
Research Organization Registry (ROR)Persistent identifiers for institutions to attribute affiliations consistentlyCC0
IPCC and IPBES regional assessmentsRegional chapters and assessments with their review recordsFree to read, reuse terms per body
09Methods and evidence

How country and regional series is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

Model, equations and assumptions

The model structure used for country and regional series, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.

Risk of element iRi = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity
Expected annual lossEAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pk
Coupled systemsxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error
AssumptionWhy it is madeHow it is tested
Hazard and exposure are independent within an eventKeeps the loss integral tractableCompare with a copula fit on joint records
Couplings are linear near the operating pointLets shocks propagate through APerturb beyond the linear range and compare
Vulnerability curves transfer between placesLocal curves are rarely availableValidate against observed losses where they exist
Inputs
versioned datasets with provenance
Outputs
distributions, never single numbers
Code
released with the model card and tests
Reproduction
same data, code, environment and seed
Standard risk and state-space formulations; the assumptions listed are typical of the method, stated for review, not results.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Decisions

Who decides, and what the evidence serves.

Reports prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.

Who decidesThe questionEvidence this page serves
Planning and finance ministriesWhere national risk portfolios need budget, contingency financing or institutional changeProfiles with data vintages, uncertainty and the sources behind each figure
National statistical officesWhich gaps or inconsistencies in published series matter most to risk analysisComparability notes and the indicators that could not be sourced formally
Regional bodies and joint commissionsWhether shared risks are measured on a basis that all members can acceptTransboundary comparisons with differences in definition stated
Development finance institutionsWhether a country study is current and independent enough to inform a programmeVersion history, review record and declared competing interests

Outputs this topic produces

  • Country and regional profiles citing every statistic with its vintage
  • Comparability notes for each transboundary indicator
  • Contributor statements using CRediT roles and ROR affiliations
  • Review logs showing national review comments and responses
11Core questions

What the series asks.

Risk is experienced in places. National institutions, budgets, infrastructure and communities decide how a global shock lands in a given country, and many hazards, rivers, grids and markets cross borders. Country and regional analysis connects global evidence to the institutions that act on it, while making clear that independent analysis is not an government position.

  • Which systems in a country are most exposed, and which dependencies on other countries shape that exposure?
  • How have conditions changed since the last quarter or year, and what evidence supports the change?
  • Which risks are shared across a region, such as river basins, power pools, trade corridors or disease pathways?
  • Where is national data missing, contested or out of date, and what does that mean for the confidence of each finding?
12Scope

What the series covers.

Four series cover places at different scales and frequencies.

National

Annual and quarterly

The annual country report gives the full picture; quarterly editions track change in the systems and portfolios that matter most.

Regional

Transboundary

Regional editions cover shared hazards, infrastructure and markets across neighbouring countries.

Portfolio

Movement in readiness

How national programme portfolios move toward stated next steps, with readiness never presented as approval.

Country editions follow a common structure so that readers can compare editions over time, while leaving room for what matters most in each place. Regional editions are organised around the shared system itself, a river basin, a power pool or a trade corridor, rather than around national borders, because that is the scale at which the risk operates and at which cooperation between countries is needed.

13How editions are built

How editions are built, and their limits.

  1. 01

    Published statistics

    National statistics are the primary source where available and are labelled Published statistics. Revisions and gaps are noted.

  2. 02

    Observation

    Earth observation and monitoring data extend coverage where national data are thin, labelled Observed or Estimated as appropriate.

  3. 03

    Institutional sources

    Reports from operators and agencies are labelled Institution-reported and are not treated as independent verification.

  4. 04

    Comparability

    Cross-country comparison is used carefully; differences in definitions and data quality are stated rather than smoothed over.

14Methods

How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.

  1. Data engineering, interoperability and stewardshipStructured publishing in JATS XML · Persistent identifiers across the recordApplied here
  2. Probability and statisticsMeta-analysis with heterogeneity stated · Small-study and publication biasApplied here
  3. Uncertainty quantification and model validationCalibrated language in assessments · Certainty of evidence ratingsApplied here
15Where this page’s references

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

16Questions

Questions and answers.

Why cite the vintage of a statistic?
Because published series are revised. The vintage tells a reader which release a figure came from, so a later difference can be traced to a revision rather than read as a change in the risk.
Who reviews a country report?
Typically independent experts, including researchers based in the country, and where agreed a technical review by the relevant government. Comments and responses are recorded; the authors and editors remain responsible for the text.
Why do international and national figures differ?
They may use different definitions, sources, reference periods or modelling. A country report shows both where they differ and states the reason where it is known.
Is a country edition commissioned by the government?
Not unless the edition says so on its first page. A country profile never implies a government commission where none exists.
Are sanctioned countries covered?
Coverage follows the programme’s legal obligations. Where restrictions apply, the series may publish regional analysis without country-specific engagement.
Why quarterly editions?
Because some exposures, such as prices, reserves and infrastructure status, change within a year. Quarterly editions track change; the annual report gives the full picture.
Can a government request corrections?
Anyone can report an error through the corrections route. Corrections are made on evidence, in a new version that records what changed and why.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIReportsGlobal Systems Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceCountry Quarterly
Reports

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

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Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

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Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.