GCRI · Reports

Sectoral series

Sectoral reports profile how risk builds and moves through an industry or service: energy, finance, agriculture, health care, transport, telecommunications. Much of the relevant evidence is held by companies, regulators and industry bodies rather than published in the peer-reviewed literature. This page sets out how sector evidence is sourced and weighed, how competing interests are handled, and what the profiles can support for regulators, operators and investors.

02The question

Sectoral series: how the risk develops.

Sector and industry profiles. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.

Mechanism

Grey literature dominance

Industry reports, regulatory filings and consultancy studies carry much of the sector evidence but follow no common review standard. Treating them as equivalent to reviewed research overstates the certainty of what they report.

Mechanism

Competing interests

Funding, employment, advisory roles and data access agreements can shape which questions are asked and how results are framed. Undeclared interests are among the most common grounds for correction in sector studies.

Mechanism

Classification drift

Sectors are defined differently across classification systems and change as industries change. Profiles that mix definitions compare unlike populations and misstate concentration and exposure.

Mechanism

Commercial confidentiality

When key data cannot be published, readers cannot check the analysis. Evidence held under confidentiality must be labelled as such so that conclusions resting on it are not read as independently verifiable.

03Monitor

Series production desk.

The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Series production desk

Sectoral series · Annual synthesis · Edition 6

Data check behind planGCRI · Reports

Editions in production

Annual synthesisGlobalData check86W29
Country profile 7CountryPeer review97W26
Water outlookSectoralDrafting30W28
Methods note 4MethodsReleased100done

Data check, annual synthesis

Values traced, %77 of 100 requiredLabels attached, %98 of 100 requiredUncertainty stated, %79 of 100 required

Edition pipeline

  1. Outlineboard
  2. Draftauthors
  3. Data checkevery value
  4. Peer reviewtwo rounds
  5. Editorialdecision
  6. ReleaseDOI
  7. Correctionsversioned
Series production desk: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Sectoral series.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
04In the five domains

Sector editions look at one domain’s industries across countries.

Sector editions never rate or rank firms. They use aggregated data with sources, carrying NS-3b metadata under the proposed Nexus Standards.

  • Sector data under terms.
  • Peer review.
05Methods and evidence

How sectoral series is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

Model, equations and assumptions

The model structure used for sectoral series, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.

Risk of element iRi = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity
Expected annual lossEAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pk
Coupled systemsxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error
AssumptionWhy it is madeHow it is tested
Hazard and exposure are independent within an eventKeeps the loss integral tractableCompare with a copula fit on joint records
Couplings are linear near the operating pointLets shocks propagate through APerturb beyond the linear range and compare
Vulnerability curves transfer between placesLocal curves are rarely availableValidate against observed losses where they exist
Inputs
versioned datasets with provenance
Outputs
distributions, never single numbers
Code
released with the model card and tests
Reproduction
same data, code, environment and seed
Standard risk and state-space formulations; the assumptions listed are typical of the method, stated for review, not results.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Indicators

What is measured, and how well.

Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.

IndicatorUnitCadenceSource typeLabel
Grey literature share of cited sourcespercent of referencesper reportReference classification auditREPORTED
Sources funded by the profiled industrypercent of referencesper reportFunding statements in cited worksREPORTED
Competing interest declarations on filepercent of contributors and reviewersper reportDeclaration recordsDECLARED
Findings resting on confidential datacount of key statementsper reportEditorial auditREPORTED
Sector classification stated for each datasetpercent of datasetsper versionData annexREPORTED
Regulatory filings cited with filing referencepercent of regulatory citationsper versionReference metadataOBSERVED
07Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.

SourceWhat it givesLicence class
UN International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC)Common sector definitions and correspondences to national systemsFree to use, United Nations terms
ILOSTATLabour statistics by economic activityCC BY 4.0
OECD data and sector outlooksSector statistics, structural indicators and policy reviewsFree to use, terms per OECD
SEC EDGAR and equivalent filing registriesCompany filings, risk factor disclosures and annual reportsPublic records, terms per registry
Crossref funding and reference metadataFunder identifiers and references for reviewed sector researchOpen metadata, no reuse restrictions
Sector regulators’ published reportsSupervisory statistics, incident reports and stress test documentationPublic records, terms per regulator
08Decisions

Who decides, and what the evidence serves.

Reports prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.

Who decidesThe questionEvidence this page serves
Sector regulators and supervisorsWhether a sector’s concentration and dependencies warrant supervisory attention or stress testingProfiles with source review status, classification and confidentiality stated
Industry operators and associationsWhich shared dependencies to address jointly through standards or mutual aidDependency maps with evidence labels and the data gaps that limit them
Institutional investors and their stewardship teamsHow sector exposure to systemic risk should inform engagementSector risk profiles with competing interests and data sources disclosed
Standards bodiesWhere common definitions or disclosure standards are missingClassification drift and disclosure gaps documented across sources

Outputs this topic produces

  • Sector profiles that label each source by review status
  • Competing interest statements for every contributor and reviewer
  • Data annexes stating classifications and confidentiality
  • Dependency maps between sectors with their evidence labels
09Core questions

What the series asks.

Each sector has its own physics, economics, regulation and vocabulary, and its own ways of failing. Operators and regulators need analysis that respects those specifics while showing how the sector depends on and affects others. Sector profiles also help readers outside a sector understand where its risks could reach them.

  • What are the critical functions of a sector, and what does it depend on to deliver them?
  • Which hazards and threats matter most for the sector, and how have its exposures changed?
  • How concentrated is the sector in suppliers, technologies, locations or firms, and what are the consequences of that concentration?
  • How does stress in this sector transmit to others, including through financial channels?
10Scope

What the series covers.

Sector profiles combine engineering, economic and institutional views.

Functions

Critical services

What the sector delivers that society cannot do without, and the minimum service levels that matter in a crisis.

Dependencies

Inputs and links

Energy, water, data, labour, finance and supply chains on which the sector relies.

Finance

Readiness questions

Where relevant, finance and insurance readiness questions examined with the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) at sector level, never firm by firm.

Sector analysis draws on the engineering idea of critical functions: rather than listing every asset, it asks which services must continue, at what minimum level, and what they depend on. This keeps attention on consequences for people and on the dependencies, often outside the sector, that can interrupt those services.

11How editions are built

How editions are built, and their limits.

  1. 01

    Sector data

    Operator, regulator and industry data, labelled by source type. Commercial confidentiality limits what can be published.

  2. 02

    Engineering analysis

    Reliability and dependency analysis from the specialist platforms. Models are reviewed technically before publication.

  3. 03

    Aggregation

    Data from firms are aggregated before use; no edition assesses or rates an individual firm.

  4. 04

    Case evidence

    Documented incidents illustrate failure modes. Cases are selected for learning, not to assign blame.

12Methods

How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.

  1. Data engineering, interoperability and stewardshipStructured publishing in JATS XML · Persistent identifiers across the recordApplied here
  2. Probability and statisticsMeta-analysis with heterogeneity stated · Small-study and publication biasApplied here
  3. Uncertainty quantification and model validationCalibrated language in assessments · Certainty of evidence ratingsApplied here
13Where this page’s references

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

14Questions

Questions and answers.

Why include grey literature at all?
Because much sector evidence exists nowhere else. It is included with its review status stated, assessed for quality, and weighted accordingly rather than excluded or treated as peer-reviewed.
How are competing interests handled?
Authors and reviewers declare financial and non-financial interests following COPE guidance. Declarations are published with the report, and an undeclared interest found later is handled through the corrections process.
Can industry fund a sector report?
Funding sources must be declared and must not control the questions, analysis or conclusions. Editors decide whether an arrangement is compatible with independence, and readers see the declaration.
Does the sectoral series rate companies?
No. It works at sector level with aggregated data and does not rate, rank or assess individual firms.
Who contributes to sector profiles?
The specialist platforms of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for each sector lead the analysis; The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and GRA platforms contribute within their mandates.
Is the finance readiness series investment advice?
No. It examines readiness questions at sector or programme level. GRA does not lend, underwrite, rate, invest, or advise on or arrange transactions.
Can an industry body sponsor a sector profile?
Funding is disclosed in the edition and confers no right to change or block a finding.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIReportsGlobal Systems Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceCountry Quarterly
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