GCRI · Energy Nexus
Power grids and interconnection
A power grid is a single machine spread across a region or a continent: generation and demand must balance every second, and a fault anywhere is felt everywhere that is synchronously connected. Interconnection shares reserves and smooths variability, but it also shares disturbances. This page sets out how grids are operated within security limits, how failures propagate along lines and across borders, and what evidence operators and regulators use to plan and run them.
Power grids and interconnection on the record.
Power grids and interconnection: how the risk develops.
Transmission, distribution and system dependencies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Balance and frequency
Frequency falls when demand exceeds supply and rises when it does not. Inertia from rotating machines and fast reserves arrest the change; as inverter-based generation grows, operators must procure these services explicitly rather than receive them for free.
Security limits and contingencies
Operators run the system so that the loss of any single major element, the N-1 criterion, leaves flows and voltages within limits. Operating close to those limits leaves no margin for a second event before the first is cleared.
Cascading failure
An overloaded line trips, its flow shifts to parallel paths, those overload in turn, and protection separates the grid into islands with too much or too little generation. Cascades unfold in minutes and cross borders faster than operators can coordinate.
Dependencies beyond the grid
Control centres need telecommunications, substations need batteries, and gas plants need pipelines whose compressors may need electricity. Water, payments and hospitals depend on the grid in turn, so a grid failure becomes a multi-sector event.
Energy now in Europe.
Night lights, population density and land cover over Europe, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Energy now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest month GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MERRA-2 (NASA GMAO / GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GMAO / GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- monthly; Reanalysis model; latest month GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2026-07-01
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Reanalysis model estimate of monthly mean incoming sunlight over land; an indicator of solar resource, not a site yield assessment.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground on the day shown, an indicator of cooling demand; not air temperature or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Energy now, framed on Europe.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA/NOAA VIIRS · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MERRA-2 reanalysis, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Observed (EO): NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Incoming sunlight at the surface over land, monthly mean: MERRA-2, NASA GMAO / GES DISC · July 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Land surface temperature, day: VIIRS NOAA-20, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
The grid as the most connected node in the nexus.
| Domain | How it couples here | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Water | Treatment and pumping trip with voltage and frequency disturbances; grids need water for thermal cooling. See water-energy interdependence. | Utility load on critical feeders |
| Health | Hospitals rely on grid supply with on-site backup; home medical devices rely on the grid alone. | Registered medically dependent customers |
| Food | Cold stores, irrigation and processing plants are large, interruptible loads. | Agricultural load under demand response schemes |
| Biodiversity | Transmission corridors fragment habitat and can start wildfires in dry, windy conditions. | Vegetation management and fire-weather shutoff events |
System stability is measured in frequency (hertz), rate of change of frequency (hertz per second), voltage and reserve margins. As inverter-based generation replaces synchronous machines, inertia falls and grid-forming capability becomes a design question, documented in NERC’s reports on inverter-based resource performance. The blackout of the Iberian Peninsula on 28 April 2025 was investigated by an ENTSO-E expert panel; its findings, not commentary, are the reference.
A cascade through interdependent networks.
A hazard footprint takes out co-located assets in every layer; fragmentation, dependency between layers and overload of the survivors then spread the failure. The 3D view separates the layers by depth. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Europe; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Assets per layer
- 18
- Hazard footprint
- 8% of area
- Assets that depend on another layer
- 60%
- Spare capacity (tolerance)
- 30%
Readouts
- Assets hit by the hazard
- 9%
- Assets still working
- 30%
- Amplification of the initial damage
- 7.6 times
- Steps to settle
- 4
Numbers, methods and sources
| Step | Power working (%) | Gas working (%) | Telecoms working (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83 | 89 | 100 |
| 1 | 39 | 67 | 78 |
| 2 | 33 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | 33 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | 33 | 22 | 33 |
Methods
- Interdependent networks Buldyrev and others (2010), Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464
- Overload cascades Motter and Lai (2002), Physical Review E 66
- Betweenness load Brandes (2001), Journal of Mathematical Sociology 25
- Multilayer networks Kivela and others (2014), Journal of Complex Networks 2
- Infrastructure interdependencies Rinaldi, Peerenboom and Kelly (2001), IEEE Control Systems 21(6)
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Major roads Natural Earth
- Railways Natural Earth
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Airports Natural Earth
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band) NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP) · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- Natural events (NASA EONET) NASA EONET · register nasa.eonet.events
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Energy Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Energy Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Energy and Critical Infrastructure in Standards
- Published in Energy Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Infrastructure, Energy and Industry in Academy
Grid evidence, its restrictions and contributions.
Grid studies are designed for the Global Sector Risk and Resilience series and the Scenario and Stress-Test series. Network models are restricted for security; public outputs use permitted or synthetic test systems, and every model would carry an NS-12 card under the proposed Nexus Standards. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) operates no grid and holds no reliability mandate.
- Published disturbance and outage investigation reports.
- Interconnection data for regional studies, under the operators’ terms.
- Lessons from black-start and restoration exercises.
Model power grids and interconnection as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Energy utilities and grids: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Windstorm
- Geomagnetic storm
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Large forest disturbance (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Geomagnetically induced current (set off downstream)
- Ionospheric disturbance (set off downstream)
- Satellite space-environment anomaly (set off downstream)
- Shoreline ice shove (set off downstream)
- Thermospheric drag surge (set off downstream)
- Radiation-belt electron enhancement (set off downstream)
- Seiche (set off downstream)
- Satellite-navigation disruption (set off downstream)
- Uncontrolled re-entry (set off downstream)
- Satellite communications outage (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-H84Hazard family: Energy system instability and shortfall (NHS-1 infra.energy)NRS-N2Energy risk and resilienceNRS-H109Hazard family: Energy-transition technology failures (NHS-1 tech.energy-transition)NRS-U8Universe platform profile: Energy NexusNRS-T12Energy transition technology riskNRS-H53Hazard family: Cyber-physical disruption (NHS-1 cyber.cyber-physical)
Observation
- Global Power Plant Database v1.3.0 (listed for reference)
- ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (listed for reference)
- World Development Indicators (listed for reference)
- OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
- Proportion of population with access to electricity
- Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption
- Number of other destroyed or damaged critical infrastructure units and facilities, attributed to disasters
- Access to electricity (% of population)
- Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output)
Example geography
- Europe: 113 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
- Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| System average interruption duration index (SAIDI) | minutes per customer per year | annual | Utility interruption records under IEEE 1366 | Published statistics |
| System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) | interruptions per customer per year | annual | Utility interruption records under IEEE 1366 | Published statistics |
| Frequency deviation and time outside the standard range | hertz; minutes per month | continuous | Operator measurements, phasor measurement units | OBSERVED |
| Cross-border transfer capacity | megawatts | hourly | Transparency platform publications | Published statistics |
| Transmission circuit availability | percent of hours available | annual | Operator outage records | REPORTED |
| Congestion management and redispatch volume | megawatt hours; cost in national currency | monthly | Operator and regulator reports | Published statistics |
| Synchronous inertia | gigawatt seconds | hourly | Operator estimation from committed units | ESTIMATED |
The sector signature of power grids and interconnection.
The sectors power grids and interconnection touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Energy and its partners
Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
- Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ENTSO-E Transparency Platform | Load, generation, cross-border flows, transfer capacities and outages for European bidding zones | Free, registration, ENTSO-E terms |
| EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (Form EIA-930) | Hourly demand, generation and interchange for US balancing authorities | Public domain |
| EIA-861 annual electric power industry report | Utility reliability indices and customer counts | Public domain |
| ENTSO-E Ten-Year Network Development Plan | Planned transmission projects and system needs studies | Public report, ENTSO-E terms |
| OpenStreetMap power infrastructure | Lines, substations and plants mapped by contributors | Open Database Licence |
| Gridfinder | Modelled medium-voltage network extent from night-time lights and roads | Free and open, attribution |
| Incident investigation reports (ENTSO-E expert panels, NERC and FERC) | Reconstructions of major disturbances, their causes and recommendations | Public reports |
How power grids and interconnection is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in power grids and interconnection: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Energy Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Transmission system operators | Which contingencies to plan for and how much reserve and inertia to procure | Contingency scenarios, inertia estimates, lessons from published incident reports |
| Energy regulators | Whether to approve transmission investment and how to set reliability incentives | Reliability indices by region, congestion costs, network development plans |
| Regional coordination centres and neighbouring operators | How to share reserves and align defence plans across borders | Cross-border flow and capacity records; cascade scenarios that cross the border |
| Civil protection and critical service operators | Which services lose power first in a regional outage and what backup they need | Grid dependency briefs with backup endurance by site |
Outputs this topic produces
- Grid dependency briefs linking substations to water, health and communications services
- Contingency and cascade scenarios with assumptions stated
- Interconnection maps with transfer capacities and their evidence labels
- Incident reconstructions compiled from published investigations
What grid experts ask.
- Can the network carry the flows that future generation and demand patterns will create, without overloading lines or losing voltage control?
- How does the system keep its frequency stable as fewer synchronous machines provide inertia?
- Where would a single failure push flows onto lines that cannot carry them?
- How do distribution networks cope as rooftop solar, heat pumps and electric vehicles change local flows?
How grids fail and recover.
Electricity follows the physics of the network, not contracts. When a line trips, its flow redistributes instantly across parallel paths. If those paths overload, protection trips them too, and a sequence of trips can separate the grid into islands with mismatched supply and demand. Under-frequency load shedding then disconnects customers in blocks to keep the remaining system alive.
Inertia from spinning generators slows the rate at which frequency falls after a disturbance, giving controls time to act. Inverter-based resources such as wind, solar and batteries do not provide inertia inherently, although grid-forming controls can provide similar support. Voltage stability depends on reactive power close to where it is needed. Weak links between regions can produce oscillations that grow if they are not damped.
How grids are analysed.
- 01
Power flow and contingency studies
Steady-state models check line loading and voltages under normal conditions and after outages. They rely on accurate network data, which is often confidential.
- 02
Dynamic simulation
Time-domain models study stability over seconds. Their accuracy depends on models of inverter controls that manufacturers may not fully disclose.
- 03
Network science
Network science studies the structure of grids and how failures spread. Topological models are useful for insight but ignore much of the physics.
- 04
Event analysis
Post-event reviews by operators and regulators remain the richest evidence, but they are published unevenly across jurisdictions.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Power systems engineeringContingency and load flow studies · Frequency stability with less inertiaApplied here
- 02Network science and contagionInterdependency mapping · Cascades on multilayer networks · Criticality rankingApplied here
- 03Reliability and resilience engineeringRestoration curve analysis · Fault trees for critical sites · Fragility curves for grid assetsApplied here
- 04Optimisation and operations researchCapacity expansion planning · Unit commitment and dispatch · Restoration sequencingApplied here
- 05Forecasting and time-series analysisLoad forecasting with weather · Wind and solar power forecasts · Seasonal adequacy outlooksApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions (International Energy Agency, 2023)
- ENTSO-E, including the expert panel investigation of the 28 April 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout
- NERC disturbance reports on inverter-based resource performance (Odessa disturbances, 2021 and 2022)
- NS-12, Software, model and AI/ML artefacts, a proposed standard
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
What is the N-1 criterion?
Does interconnection make grids safer?
Why are detailed network models not published?
Why do blackouts spread so quickly?
Can grids run entirely on inverter-based resources?
Does Energy Nexus use confidential grid data?
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