Reports · GCRI · Country profile
United Arab Emirates 2026
ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان
The United Arab Emirates enters 2027 as a hot, hyper-arid federation of seven emirates with 11.3 million residents, an economy in which non-oil activity is about three quarters of output, and a power system that has changed quickly. Its inventory reported net emissions of 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019.
- دۆزینەوەکان
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- سەرچاوەکان
- 46
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
United Arab Emirates in six readings.
Six readings that frame the United Arab Emirates baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATئاو2 findings
14.9 m³ Internal renewable freshwater per person, 2022. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Internal renewable freshwater 14.9 m³ per person; Abu Dhabi groundwater 60% of water consumed.
- ENEوزە2 findings
68% Gas share of electricity generation, 2025. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Gas 68% of 2025 generation; 7,907 MW of renewables at end 2025.
- INFژێرخانnot assessed
Desalination, grid and drainage networks; condition and redundancy not bound.
- FOOخۆراک1 finding
≥80% Share of domestic food consumption that is imported, 2025. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
At least 80% of food imported; arable land 0.8% of land area.
- HLTتەندروستی1 finding
51 infractions Infractions found in midday-break inspections, 2024. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Life expectancy 83.1 years in 2024; heat-illness series not bound.
- BIOفرەجۆریی زیندەوەری1 finding
19.2% Land in protected areas, 2025. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Protected land 19.2% and sea 12.0% in 2025; mangrove 201 km².
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-ARE-CLI-001
Extreme heat and humidity
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 3
RSK-ARE-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 3
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- groundwater drawn at 24 times recharge in Abu Dhabi [20]
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- farms; cities supplied by desalinated water
- لاوازی
- little renewable water: 14.9 m³ a person [10]
- توانا
- Water Security Strategy 2036; reuse at 77% [1]
- زنجیرەیی
- WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
No domain reading
RSK-ARE-CLI-003
Flash flood and urban drainage
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 3
RSK-ARE-ENE-004
Fuel and power supply under peak demand
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- power, desalination, cooling
- لاوازی
- gas 68% of generation [17]
- زنجیرەیی
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-ARE-HTW-01
Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
- 2ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
- 3CLI → HLTheat load rises on outdoor workers around the midday break
- 4WAT → HLTwater for drinking and cooling is stretched
- 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity are stretched
- 6FINcosts fall on utilities and the public budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The United Arab Emirates matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سیستەمە. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | مامناوەند | Strong | مامناوەند | مامناوەند |
| ENE | Strong | · | مامناوەند | Strong | Weak |
| FOO | Strong | Weak | · | Strong | Weak |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | مامناوەند | · | Weak |
| BIO | مامناوەند | Weak | مامناوەند | مامناوەند | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises cooling demand, and desalination needs the same power▲Inferred
- CLI → INFrecord rain met inadequate drainage and abandoned cars in Dubai□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- WAT → FOOgroundwater mainly irrigates crops in Abu Dhabi□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- ENE → WATgas and nuclear power supply pumping and desalination▲Inferred
- TRD → FINfuel exports bring revenue while the non-oil fiscal balance is in deficit□ڕاپۆرتکراو
05 · Findings
Every finding of United Arab Emirates.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | وەشان | Sector or system | دۆخ | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Net greenhouse-gas emissions were 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019; energy gave 164.1 Mt, industrial processes 29.6 Mt and waste 5.6 Mt, and land use removed 6.6 Mt. |
| CLI-002 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 2050; the 2023 update used a 2019 base of 225 Mt, so the base has been revised. |
| ENE-003 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | ENE وزە | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%; total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh. |
| ENE-004 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | ENE وزە | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Renewable capacity was 7,907 MW at the end of 2025, against 6.8 GW in 2024 as reported to the UNFCCC; the national aim is 22 GW by 2031. |
| WAT-005 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | WAT ئاو | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Internal renewable freshwater is 14.9 m³ per person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge. |
| WAT-006 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | WAT ئاو | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Treated wastewater reuse reached 77% against a 95% aim for 2036, and the national demand programme reports 513 million m³ saved; a current national share of desalinated supply is not bound. |
| FOO-007 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | FOO خۆراک | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | At least 80% of food consumed is imported; arable land is 0.8% of land area and cereal production was about 20,000 tonnes in 2024. |
| CLI-008 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Rain of 254 mm fell in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024, the highest since records began in 1949; four deaths were reported in the UAE, and 85% of residents live in flood-prone, low-lying areas. |
| HLT-009 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | HLT تەندروستی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | A reading of 51.6 °C was reported at Sweihan on 24 May 2025, and outdoor work stops from 12:30 to 15:00 between 15 June and 15 September; no national heat-illness series is bound. |
| BIO-010 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | BIO فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Protected areas covered 19.2% of land and 12.0% of marine waters in 2025; Abu Dhabi directed an expansion to 20% of its land in October 2025. |
| FIN-011 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | FIN دارایی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Real GDP grew 4.0% in 2024 and the IMF projects 4.8% for 2025 and 5.0% for 2026; fuel was 68% of merchandise exports in 2023, and the non-oil primary balance is a deficit of 15.1% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | ئیمارەتە عەرەبییە یەکگرتووەکان | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a humid summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for United Arab Emirates.
| Desk | وەشان | دۆخ | ناسێنەر |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | United Arab Emirates 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: United Arab Emirates 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: United Arab Emirates 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: United Arab Emirates 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07ڕاستکردنەوەکانafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-ARE-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- بەشداربەSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- پێداچوونەوەJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| وەشان | Date | دۆخ | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| بۆشایی | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/are/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
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