The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low river flows
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a hot, dry summer with low river flows constrain nuclear and hydro output while heat and drought load health services and harvests?

    INI-FRA-HDN-01 · heat–drought–nuclear summer; first output: dependency graph for the Rhône, Loire and Garonne basins.

  2. A-02

    How sustainable is the CatNat regime as drought subsidence, floods and hail claims grow?

    INI-FRA-FIN-02 · CatNat exposure; first output: peril-by-region claims table, 2015–2025.

  3. A-03

    How should water be shared between irrigation, cooling and drinking water in dry summers?

    INI-FRA-WAT-03 · basin allocation; first output: allocation note for five basins.

  4. A-04

    What heat surge capacity exists for people aged 75 and over, at home and in care?

    INI-FRA-HLT-04 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

  5. A-05

    How far north and west is wildfire risk spreading, and which communities are newly exposed?

    INI-FRA-CLI-05 · wildfire expansion; first output: exposure map by department.

  6. A-06

    How exposed are the overseas territories to cyclones, water shortage and supply disruption?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note after Cyclone Chido.

  7. A-07

    How are farmland habitats and pollination changing, and what does that mean for yields?

    With GS-11 Biodiversity; first output: indicator note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-FRA-HDN-01Heat–drought–nuclear summer dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-FRA-FIN-02CatNat exposure by peril and regionInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-FRA-WAT-03Basin water allocation under droughtInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-FRA-HLT-04Heat surge readiness for older peopleInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-FRA-CLI-05Wildfire expansionInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-FRA-2027-01Hot, dry summer Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

France is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across metropolitan France and the overseas territories. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-FRA-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-FRA-2027-01 · hot, dry summer with low river flows
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-004 · nuclear outputINI-FRA-HDN-01 · GS-02heat–drought–nuclear summerPUBLIC
HLT-006 · heat deathsINI-FRA-HLT-04heat surge readinessPUBLIC
WAT-008 · water useINI-FRA-WAT-03 · GS-01basin allocationPUBLIC
FIN-009 · clay subsidenceINI-FRA-FIN-02 · key F reviewCatNat exposurePUBLIC
FIN-010 · claimsINI-FRA-FIN-02peril-by-region claimsPUBLIC
BIO-011 · farmland birdsGS-11 Biodiversity editioncondition baselinePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-FRA-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather vigilanceMétéo-Francereal timeearly-warning rung
Flood vigilance (Vigicrues)national flood forecasting servicereal timeRSK-FRA-CLI-004
Drought restrictions (Propluvia)Ministry for the Ecological TransitiondailyRSK-FRA-WAT-002
Electricity mix (eCO₂mix)RTEreal timeENE findings
Heat-health surveillanceSanté publique Francedaily in seasonRSK-FRA-CLI-001
CatNat decreesJournal officielper decreeFIN findings
Wildfire database (BDIFF)national forest-fire databaseper eventA-05

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-FRA-001Heat and low flows limiting reactor output in summer25CORROBORATEDWAT · ENEinitiative A-01
SIG-FRA-002Rising drought-subsidence claims1321CORROBORATEDFIN · WATinitiative A-02
SIG-FRA-003Wildfire reaching northern and western regions20PARTIALBIO · CLIinitiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
  2. 13France Assureurs (ed.), Bilan des catastrophes naturelles et des événements climatiques 2022. France Assureurs, Paris, 2023.back
  3. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
  4. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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