France 2026, chapter 8: Systems in depth

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

France’s water is plentiful in winter and contested in summer, when irrigation, reactor cooling and drinking water draw on the same low flows.

≈58%

of water consumed by agriculture¹²

10%

withdrawal cut targeted by 2030¹¹

17.1million

residents exposed to river flooding²²

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Use	agriculture about 58%, drinking water 26%, cooling 12% of consumption	¹²	Reported
Drought	repeated summer restrictions since 2019	¹¹	Reported
Flooding	about 17.1 million residents exposed to river flooding	²²	Reported
Planning	Plan Eau sets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030	¹¹	Reported

Couplings into other systems

WAT → ENE reactor cooling and hydro
WAT → FOO irrigation
WAT → FIN clay subsidence and floods

Evidence to bind in 2027

basin allocation in dry summers
groundwater recharge trends

Related editions

REG-EUR Europe
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

French electricity is about 95% low-carbon, led by nuclear power cooled by rivers and the sea. Its exposure is to heat, drought and maintenance cycles more than to fuel.

≈95%

low-carbon electricity, 2024⁷

279TWh

nuclear output, 2022 low²⁵

−26%

power-sector emissions, 2024¹

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Mix	nuclear about two-thirds; hydro, wind and solar most of the rest	⁷	Reported
2022 low	nuclear output lowest since 1988	²⁵	Reported
Recovery	about 362 TWh in 2024 and record exports	⁷	Reported
Cooling limits	discharge-temperature limits bind in heatwaves	²⁵	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

WAT → ENE cooling
ENE → HLT power for cooling and care
ENE → TRD exports to neighbours

Evidence to bind in 2027

cooling constraints by plant in heat
demand growth from electrification

Related editions

REG-EUR Europe
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

France is the EU’s largest agricultural producer. Hot, dry years cut harvests, and irrigation competes with other uses for summer water.

≈18%

of EU agricultural output²³

≈58%

of water consumed by agriculture¹²

−30%

farmland birds since 1989¹⁸

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Production	largest agricultural output in the EU	²³	Reported
Drought	harvests cut in hot, dry years	²⁴	Reported
Water	irrigation the largest consumptive use	¹²	Reported
Biodiversity	farmland species declining	¹⁸	Reported

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO irrigation
CLI → FOO heat and drought
BIO → FOO pollination and soils

Evidence to bind in 2027

harvest losses by region
irrigation demand under drought

Related editions

REG-EUR Europe
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is France’s deadliest climate hazard. The 2003 heatwave remains the reference case, and older people carry most of the burden.

3,700+deaths

heat-attributable, summer 2024⁴

≈75%

aged 75 and over⁴

70,000+deaths

across Europe in 2003³⁹

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Heat	more than 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024	⁴	Reported
Age	about three quarters among people aged 75 and over	⁴	Reported
Reference case	the 2003 heatwave	³⁹	Reported
Surge capacity	not consolidated nationally	,	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
ENE → HLT cooling and care
WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

heat surge capacity for older people
cooling in care homes

Related editions

REG-EUR Europe
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

France holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity, much of it overseas. Farmland species are declining, and wildfire is reaching regions once spared.

−30%

farmland birds since 1989¹⁸

1 in 6species

assessed species threatened¹⁹

2022fires

more than 60,000 ha burned²⁰

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Farmland birds	about 30% decline since 1989	¹⁸	Reported
Red List	about one in six assessed species threatened	¹⁹	Reported
Wildfire	large fires in the south-west and beyond in 2022	²⁰	Reported
Overseas	most endemic species are in overseas territories	¹⁹	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

BIO → FOO pollination and soils
BIO → WAT regulation
CLI → BIO fire and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

habitat condition indicators
overseas biodiversity trends

Related editions

REG-EUR Europe
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

12SDES (ed.), L’environnement en France : prélèvements et consommations d’eau. Service des données et études statistiques, Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
24Agreste (ed.), GraphAgri 2024. Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, Paris, 2024.back
4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
39J.-M. Robine, S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy et al., “Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, vol. 331, pp. 171–178, 2008.back
19UICN Comité français, OFB and MNHN (eds.), La Liste rouge des espèces menacées en France. Paris, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Systems in depth

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Couplings into other systems

Evidence to bind in 2027

Related editions

Notes

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