- Japan 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Great earthquake in an ageing region
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-SEI-001
Nankai Trough or Tokyo-area great earthquake
- Driver
- subduction-zone or inland megaquake with tsunami
- Exposure
- Pacific coast industry, ports, cities
- Vulnerability
- older buildings; coastal plants; ageing population
- Capacity
- seismic codes; early warning; evacuation
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN, TRD
- Horizon
- 30 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-CLI-002
Heavy rain, typhoon and river flooding
- Driver
- more intense rainfall and stronger typhoons
- Exposure
- floodplains, steep catchments, cities
- Vulnerability
- older levees; landslide-prone slopes
- Capacity
- basin-wide flood control; warnings
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 4RSK-JPN-HLT-003
Heat and ageing overload of health and care
- Driver
- longer, hotter summers
- Exposure
- older adults living alone; outdoor workers
- Vulnerability
- limited cooling; workforce shortages
- Capacity
- heat alerts; cooling shelters
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Horizon
- seasonal
InferredEQL 3RSK-JPN-ENE-004
Fuel and LNG supply disruption
- Driver
- shipping disruption or price spike
- Exposure
- power, industry, households
- Vulnerability
- near-total import dependence
- Capacity
- oil stockpiles; nuclear and renewables
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | DEMONSTRATED | strict seismic codes credited with limiting building collapse in real events | |
| Monitoring and observation | DEMONSTRATED | dense seismic, tsunami and weather networks in continuous use6 | |
| Early warning | DEMONSTRATED | earthquake early warning and J-Alert in use for real events | |
| Preparedness and planning | TESTED | national drills each year; Nankai Trough advisory issued in August 2024 | |
| Redundancy and reserves | EXISTS | national oil stockpiles; water and food reserves uneven | |
| Response | DEMONSTRATED | Self-Defense Forces and mutual aid in real disasters | |
| Continuity of critical services | EXISTS | Noto showed long water and care outages in remote areas11 | |
| Recovery | EXISTS | reconstruction frameworks; slow in depopulating areas | |
| Adaptation | EXISTS | Climate Change Adaptation Act and plans | |
| Social protection | EXISTS | universal pension and health coverage | |
| Finance and insurance | EXISTS | public–private earthquake insurance; about a third of homes covered22 | |
| Institutional coordination | TESTED | Disaster Management Agency planned for 2026 | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | ageing assets; national resilience plan27 | |
| Workforce | LISTED | care and construction workforce shortages documented | |
| Research capacity | ADEQUATE | long-established seismic and disaster science | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025.back
- 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024.back
- 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023.back