References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Great earthquake in an ageing region
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 44 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies (eds.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, April 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  2. 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  3. 3Government of Japan (ed.), Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (targets for FY2035 and FY2040). Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  4. 4Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ed.), Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Cabinet decision, Tokyo, February 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ed.), Annual Report on Energy (Energy White Paper) 2025. METI, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  6. 6Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Climate Change Monitoring Report 2024. JMA, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
  8. 8Cabinet Office (ed.), White Paper on Disaster Management 2025. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  9. 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (ed.), Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (revised). MEXT, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  11. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  13. 13Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics: deaths from heatstroke, 2023. MHLW, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (ed.), Vital Statistics 2024 (births). MHLW, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  15. 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas. MAFF, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  18. 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  19. 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  20. 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
  21. 21Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), Water Resources in Japan 2024. MLIT, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in chapter 8
  22. 22General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (ed.), Earthquake insurance statistics, 2023. GIROJ, Tokyo, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23General Insurance Association of Japan (ed.), “Insurance payouts for major windstorm and flood losses.” GIAJ, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24Bank of Japan (ed.), Financial System Report, April 2025. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25Financial Services Agency (ed.), Supervisory guidance on climate-related risk management and client engagement. FSA, Tokyo, 2022.
  26. 26Sustainability Standards Board of Japan (ed.), SSBJ Sustainability Disclosure Standards. SSBJ, Tokyo, March 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Government of Japan (ed.), Basic Act on Disaster Countermeasures, Act No. 223 of 1961, as amended. Tokyo. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29Government of Japan (ed.), Act on the Promotion of a Smooth Transition to a Decarbonised Growth-Oriented Economic Structure (GX Promotion Act), Act No. 32 of 2023. Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  30. 30Ministry of Finance (ed.), Climate Transition Bonds framework. MoF, Tokyo, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31Government of Japan (ed.), Economic Security Promotion Act, Act No. 43 of 2022. Tokyo, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.
  34. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Japan 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021.
  37. 37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.
  38. 38Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.
  42. 42S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  43. 43S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  44. 44OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Japan 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Japan Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
JPNNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-JPN-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Japan; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. JPN edition Reports Japan 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; JPN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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