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カナダ・システムリスク・レジリエンス報告書 2026

The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Canada report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 829 KB · 102 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
編集者
Saeed Valadbaygi
デスク
GCRI Systems Evidence
正式な発行者
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Collection
Canada 2026
エビデンス締め切り
30 September 2026
ステータス
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
報告書CAN

国のシステム・リスクとレジリエンス

Canada 2026

The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems

ベースライン版 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
調査結果12each with its status and source
出典48numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
指標20in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-CAN-2026-BL
Family · class
国 システム Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
エビデンス締め切り
30 September 2026 · cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1
再現性
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
審査
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
対象外
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
登録簿
record NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
訂正
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AIの利用
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
ライセンス
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-CAN

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005, and 227–265 Mt above the 2030 target range.

    Where do emissions stand?報告値

  2. Insured severe-weather losses rose from C$14 billion (2006–2015) to C$37 billion (2016–2025); 2024 set the record at C$9.1 billion.

    Are disaster losses rising?報告値

  3. Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; households, businesses and governments carry the rest.

    Who bears the losses?報告値

  4. Heat, drought and fire together, through hydro supply, heat and smoke health loads, crop yields and rail operations.

    Which hazard couples the most システム?Inferred

  5. About 60% of generation is hydro, so a multi-year drought is an energy-security risk, not only a water one.

    How dependent is electricity on water?Inferred

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

    Part I describes システム and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Western heat, drought and fire year

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Societal catastrophe losses, 2025 (C$ billion)
  2. 1.1Where do Canada’s emissions come from? National GHG emissions by sector, 2024 (Mt CO₂e)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Societal catastrophe losses, 2025 (C$ billion)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Industry and loss data
  11. 6.6Standards, regulation and national official sources
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1手法
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Baseline indicator set
  37. B.3National source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, Canada by macro-region
  39. B.5Evidence age in this unit
  40. B.6Canada system card
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Canadian risk. Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils; electricity, food and health share a dependence on water and heat. The evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for digital and cross-system dependencies.

FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-005 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
バージョン
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
エビデンス締め切り
ステータス
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
編集者
Saeed Valadbaygi
正式な発行者
グローバル・リスク・イノベーション・センター（Global Centre for Risk and Innovation、GCRI）
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

役割貢献By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the Canada system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
方法論Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar報告書 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of national and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
監督Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

公開前のレビュー

合格対象範囲By状況
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T予定済み
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T予定済み
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M予定済み
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F予定済み
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key N予定済み

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 印刷

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF102 pages829 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 986df4c3ead0be247f27cc01571e9e2c452c7bb9c7685d039cf5b3cbe55d5a21

      ダウンロード: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF110 pages836 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 040d49b12c03b9974409faec083c26651a856eceb5226dc072fbd3d9813b5eb7

      ダウンロード: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      20 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 d32162d1d95e508e690299dfdbee7b821ea06f21149759c9745121e510356e4e

      ダウンロード: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 06ce90c0b10706f0e979c9a02acb7163b9cd02f1ac3e7945e42bf1284db10e8d

      ダウンロード: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 56371f8e00269ee901feb1dae482ce47e33f5b24d403374b97423ba8eb275562

      ダウンロード: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 7704bb1f566e64ba0fc0871bf1a52ccd37d3ed68946803cb2a89f14321d11acc

      ダウンロード: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 aec03a02c5bcce5c9be1552f97891a534e4ac0333b5ec5f2275bb8c2929c7b64

      ダウンロード: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 eee87a9b933361996f76a42966eb591b21ac8de12dd2ab9355c156bc2721d651

      ダウンロード: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

モニタリング

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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