Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

英国システムリスク・レジリエンス報告書 2026

The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the United Kingdom report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 785 KB · 96 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
編集者
Saeed Valadbaygi
デスク
GCRI Systems Evidence
正式な発行者
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
エビデンス締め切り
30 September 2026
ステータス
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
報告書GBR

国のシステム・リスクとレジリエンス

United Kingdom 2026

The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems

ベースライン版 2026NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
調査結果12each with its status and source
出典40numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
指標16in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
Family · class
国 システム Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
エビデンス締め切り
30 September 2026 · cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1
再現性
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
審査
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
対象外
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
登録簿
record NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
訂正
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AIの利用
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
ライセンス
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-GBR

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990.

    Where do emissions stand?報告値

  2. 2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022.

    Is the climate already changing?報告値

  3. Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.

    Who is most exposed to heat?報告値

  4. About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.

    How large is flood exposure?報告値

  5. England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.

    Is water supply secure?シナリオ

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

    Part I describes システム and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer in southern England

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Properties at flood risk in England (million)
  2. 1.1How far have UK emissions fallen? Territorial emissions (Mt CO₂e)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Properties at flood risk in England (million)
List of tables (42)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Official statistics and agency data
  11. 6.6Energy, nature and industry
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1手法
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Baseline indicator set
  37. B.3National source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, the four nations and English regions
  39. B.5United Kingdom system card
  40. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  41. B.7This edition in every format
  42. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water 不足 are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.

CLI-001 · WAT-006 · INF-010 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
バージョン
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
エビデンス締め切り
ステータス
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
編集者
Saeed Valadbaygi
正式な発行者
グローバル・リスク・イノベーション・センター（Global Centre for Risk and Innovation、GCRI）
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

役割貢献By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the United Kingdom system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
方法論Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar報告書 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of national and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
監督Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

公開前のレビュー

合格対象範囲By状況
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T予定済み
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T予定済み
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M予定済み
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F予定済み
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key N予定済み

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 印刷

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF96 pages785 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 bfa03982b0bc66e17245ddb7b3ecd02e69ab0ef3434eb6ba24284b59a7575b1a

      ダウンロード: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF104 pages796 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 9d0ab1240d96660d02e453970e8cdff103bab916e870f616af91ac847b173700

      ダウンロード: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      16 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 db5359cdf7ec1dc879118fd08afc53943bf0aa4c3b0f2aa42245f471193d7daa

      ダウンロード: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 a071c110d675b1cb1f725526b38e80c5544896398b69769107deaea7b940f1fa

      ダウンロード: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 7f65cb9f1104a7893088607b4e5fc2e01628dffc67049551cf81e5457be812fa

      ダウンロード: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 b55629fce99c956ec97f7483ad0bbb06fee1ab76984ffac1fc9b0bf476c46993

      ダウンロード: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 75d5fc5e4d1caafe081ff6c65908f17be23c50d0c7ecca3abc9d265ebafbe69e

      ダウンロード: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 80f398569acbb71816e364d9e21264230f46dadfd39f50cc93b9f99e2d21856d

      ダウンロード: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

モニタリング

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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