Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- التقارير
- مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
- إصدار خط الأساس 2026
تقرير كندا عن المخاطر النظمية والصمود 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Canada report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- المكتب
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- الناشر الرسمي
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- Canada 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026
- الحالة
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-CAN-2026-BL
- Family · class
- البلد النظم Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1
- قابلية إعادة الإنتاج
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- المراجعة
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- ليس مخصصًا لـ
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- السجل
- record NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- التصحيحات
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- استخدام الذكاء الاصطناعي
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- الترخيص
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-CAN
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005, and 227–265 Mt above the 2030 target range.
Where do emissions stand?مُبلَّغ عنه
Insured severe-weather losses rose from C$14 billion (2006–2015) to C$37 billion (2016–2025); 2024 set the record at C$9.1 billion.
Are disaster losses rising?مُبلَّغ عنه
Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; households, businesses and governments carry the rest.
Who bears the losses?مُبلَّغ عنه
Heat, drought and fire together, through hydro supply, heat and smoke health loads, crop yields and rail operations.
Which hazard couples the most النظم?Inferred
About 60% of generation is hydro, so a multi-year drought is an energy-security risk, not only a water one.
How dependent is electricity on water?Inferred
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes النظم and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Western heat, drought and fire year
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (43)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Industry and loss data
- 6.6Standards, regulation and national official sources
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1الأساليب
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, Canada by macro-region
- B.5Evidence age in this unit
- B.6Canada system card
- B.7Licences of each kind of material
- B.8This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Canadian risk. Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils; electricity, food and health share a dependence on water and heat. The evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for digital and cross-system dependencies.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-005 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- الإصدار
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- إغلاق الأدلة
- الحالة
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- الناشر الرسمي
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- الطبعة السابقة
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| الدور | المساهمة | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the Canada system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| المنهجية | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | التقارير editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| الرقابة | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
المراجعة قبل الإصدار
| المرور | النطاق | By | الحالة |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | مجدول |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | مجدول |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | مجدول |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
طباعة
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF102 pages829 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
986df4c3ead0be247f27cc01571e9e2c452c7bb9c7685d039cf5b3cbe55d5a21PDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF110 pages836 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
040d49b12c03b9974409faec083c26651a856eceb5226dc072fbd3d9813b5eb7
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
20 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
d32162d1d95e508e690299dfdbee7b821ea06f21149759c9745121e510356e4eIndicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
06ce90c0b10706f0e979c9a02acb7163b9cd02f1ac3e7945e42bf1284db10e8dFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
56371f8e00269ee901feb1dae482ce47e33f5b24d403374b97423ba8eb275562
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
7704bb1f566e64ba0fc0871bf1a52ccd37d3ed68946803cb2a89f14321d11accCitation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
aec03a02c5bcce5c9be1552f97891a534e4ac0333b5ec5f2275bb8c2929c7b64Citation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
eee87a9b933361996f76a42966eb591b21ac8de12dd2ab9355c156bc2721d651
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
الرصد
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/can/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- التقاريرUSA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرGBR
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرFRA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرDEU
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرITA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرJPN
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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Reports · GCRI
Bring evidence to the next edition.
Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
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