Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Argentina 2026
Argentina
Argentina (República Argentina) enters 2027 with 46.2 million residents, an ageing index that rose from 40 to 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in twelve years, and a poverty rate that INDEC put at 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% in the second half of 2025. Its risks come from water and from fuel.
- Constatações
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fontes
- 47
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Argentina in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Argentina baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATÁgua1 finding
3 years Hydrological years with the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record, 2022. □Declarado
Large river basins; record low Paraná flows 2019–22; flash floods in coastal and Pampas cities.
- ENEEnergia2 findings
42% Low-carbon share of electricity generation, 2025. □Declarado
Low-carbon share 42%; oil output at a record; gas and hydro balance in dry years not bound.
- INFinfraestruturanot assessed
River ports and grain logistics depend on Paraná depth; wider networks not mapped.
- FOOAlimentação1 finding
−44% Change in the wheat harvest in the 2022–23 drought, 2023. □Declarado
Major grain exporter; harvests swing with rainfall; wheat estimate record in 2025–26.
- HLTSaúde1 finding
Not bound Ministerio de Salud · blocker: no national total retrieved Heat-related deaths, national season total, n/a. ·Not bound
Ageing index 53 per 100; dengue season low in 2025–26; chikungunya in the north-west.
- BIOBiodiversidade1 finding
10.4% Land in protected areas, 2025. □Declarado
Protected land 10.4% and sea 8.5%; forest loss in the north reported by NGO survey.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-ARG-CLI-001
Multi-year drought and low river flows
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- déficit de chuvas across the Pampas and the Paraná basin
- Exposição
- grain harvests, river ports, hydropower, public revenue
- Vulnerabilidade
- export dependence; fiscal room under an IMF programme
- Capacidade
- not bound at evidence close
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE, FIN, TRD
- Horizonte
- 1–5 years
RSK-ARG-CLI-002
Flash flood and storm in a port or river city
□DeclaradoEQL 3
- Fator
- extreme rainfall over urban catchments
- Exposição
- coastal and river cities, lifelines, homes
- Vulnerabilidade
- drainage capacity; uninsured households
- Capacidade
- national risk-management law exists [30]; drill records not bound
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizonte
- anual
RSK-ARG-BIO-003
Large fire in wetlands, savanna or forest
□DeclaradoEQL 3
- Fator
- drought and ignition in dry vegetation
- Exposição
- Corrientes, the Paraná delta, northern forests
- Vulnerabilidade
- dry peat and grass; remote response
- Capacidade
- national fire management service reports [16]
- Cascata
- CLI → BIO → HLT, WAT
- Horizonte
- seasonal
RSK-ARG-HLT-004
Heat and vector-borne disease load on health services
▲InferredEQL 2
Scenario · SCN-ARG-DRT-01
Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATrainfall deficit and low river levels
- 2WAT → FOOharvests fall; wheat fell 44% in 2022–23
- 3WAT → INFvessels load less cargo at river ports
- 4WAT → ENEhydropower falls; thermal generation fills the gap
- 5FOO → FINexport earnings and public revenue fall
- 6CLI → BIOdry vegetation burns in the north-east and the delta
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Argentina matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado | Strong |
| ENE | Moderado | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado |
| FOO | Moderado | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderado | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderado | Strong | Moderado | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought and low river flows cut harvests and lift export logistics costs□Declarado
- CLI → WAT → INFrecord rain floods a port city and its lifelines□Declarado
- CLI → BIOdry conditions feed large fires in wetlands and savanna□Declarado
- WAT → ENEdry years cut hydropower and raise reliance on thermal generation▲Inferred
- FOO → FINa poor harvest cuts export earnings and public revenue▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Argentina.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edição | Sector or system | Situação | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Argentina | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022, and 377.8 MtCO₂e net on the climate-contribution basis. |
| CLI-002 | Argentina | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035, against 349 MtCO₂e for 2030 in the 2021 update. |
| ENE-003 | Argentina | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025, and renewables including large hydro covered 40.2% of demand. |
| ENE-004 | Argentina | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Crude oil output reached 916,200 barrels a day in July 2026, up 17.2% year on year to June, led by shale in the Neuquén basin. |
| WAT-005 | Argentina | WAT Água | □ Declarado | The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years had the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record. |
| FOO-006 | Argentina | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes; farm-sector losses were put at about US$33 billion. |
| CLI-007 | Argentina | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | A storm on 7 March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm, and sixteen deaths were reported. |
| CLI-008 | Argentina | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | Fires affected 723,765 hectares in 2022, more than twice the 2021 area, and satellite analysis put the Corrientes burn at about 1.04 million hectares. |
| HLT-009 | Argentina | HLT Saúde | □ Declarado | The 2025–26 dengue season closed with about 70 confirmed cases against 27,178 suspected, while chikungunya reached 3,730 confirmed or probable cases, mostly in the north-west. |
| FIN-010 | Argentina | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | Poverty was 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up 4.1 points on the second half of 2025, under a US$20 billion IMF programme. |
| BIO-011 | Argentina | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | Protected areas covered about 10.4% of land and 8.5% of the sea in 2025, and one NGO survey counted 94,204 hectares of native forest cleared in the north in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | Argentina | SYS Sistêmico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows that cuts harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Argentina.
| Escritório | Edição | Situação | Identificador |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Argentina 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Argentina 2026 | Em preparação | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Argentina 2026 | Em preparação | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Argentina 2026 | Em preparação |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correçõesafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-ARG-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LerThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuirSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- AnáliseJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versão | Date | Situação | Variação | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nenhum |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Lacuna | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/arg/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Argentina.
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