Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes, the lowest in 23 years, and the grain exchange put farm-sector losses at about US$33 billion.

Figure 2.1Harvest estimates, 2022–23 drought (million tonnes)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Wheat12.4
Soybeans25
Maize36

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, as reported12. Soybean and maize figures are estimates made during the season.

Implication

Grain exports carry foreign-currency earnings and public revenue. A drought that cuts the harvest also cuts both, and low river flows add a logistics cost on the Paraná1218.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, Paraná levels at Rosario and the wheat and maize estimates of the grain exchanges would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022, and 377.8 MtCO₂e net on the climate-contribution basis.4

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035, against 349 MtCO₂e for 2030 in the 2021 update.567

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    A storm on 7 March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm, and sixteen deaths were reported.1415

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Fires affected 723,765 hectares in 2022, more than twice the 2021 area, and satellite analysis put the Corrientes burn at about 1.04 million hectares.1617

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025, and renewables including large hydro covered 40.2% of demand.89

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Crude oil output reached 916,200 barrels a day in July 2026, up 17.2% year on year to June, led by shale in the Neuquén basin.1011

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years had the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record.18

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes; farm-sector losses were put at about US$33 billion.12

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    The 2025–26 dengue season closed with about 70 confirmed cases against 27,178 suspected, while chikungunya reached 3,730 confirmed or probable cases, mostly in the north-west.20

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Poverty was 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up 4.1 points on the second half of 2025, under a US$20 billion IMF programme.32643

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Protected areas covered about 10.4% of land and 8.5% of the sea in 2025, and one NGO survey counted 94,204 hectares of native forest cleared in the north in 2025.212223

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows that cuts harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
  3. 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
  9. 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
  10. 17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  11. 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
  13. 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
  16. 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
  17. 26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 43INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, segundo semestre de 2025 (poverty 28.2% of people). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Figure read via press summaries.back
  19. 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
  20. 22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  21. 23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Argentina.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices