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United Arab Emirates 2026

United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates enters 2027 as a hot, hyper-arid federation of seven emirates with 11.3 million residents, an economy in which non-oil activity is about three quarters of output, and a power system that has changed quickly. Its inventory reported net emissions of 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Matokeo ya uchunguzi
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Vyanzo
46
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

United Arab Emirates in six readings.

Six readings that frame the United Arab Emirates baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 11.3millionpopulation, 2024 [7]
  • 74%international migrant stock, 2024 [6]
  • 86%urban population, 2025 [6]
  • 195.2Mt CO₂enet emissions incl. land use, 2022 [3]
  • 68%gas share of electricity, 2025 [17]
  • ≥80%of food imported, per the IMF staff report [5]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATMaji2 findings

    14.9 m³ Internal renewable freshwater per person, 2022. Reported

    Internal renewable freshwater 14.9 m³ per person; Abu Dhabi groundwater 60% of water consumed.

  2. ENENishati2 findings

    68% Gas share of electricity generation, 2025. Reported

    Gas 68% of 2025 generation; 7,907 MW of renewables at end 2025.

  3. INFMiundombinunot assessed

    Desalination, grid and drainage networks; condition and redundancy not bound.

  4. FOOChakula1 finding

    ≥80% Share of domestic food consumption that is imported, 2025. Reported

    At least 80% of food imported; arable land 0.8% of land area.

  5. HLTAfya1 finding

    51 infractions Infractions found in midday-break inspections, 2024. Reported

    Life expectancy 83.1 years in 2024; heat-illness series not bound.

  6. BIOBioanuwai1 finding

    19.2% Land in protected areas, 2025. Reported

    Protected land 19.2% and sea 12.0% in 2025; mangrove 201 km².

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-ARE-CLI-001

    Extreme heat and humidity

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    a reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025; humid heat rising [25] [31]
    Exposure
    outdoor workers; older residents
    Vulnerability
    a large outdoor workforce, per the third NDC [1]
    Capacity
    midday work break and fines [26]
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Angahewa na hali ya hewa

  • RSK-ARE-WAT-002

    Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    groundwater drawn at 24 times recharge in Abu Dhabi [20]
    Exposure
    farms; cities supplied by desalinated water
    Vulnerability
    little renewable water: 14.9 m³ a person [10]
    Capacity
    Water Security Strategy 2036; reuse at 77% [1]
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    5–30 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-ARE-CLI-003

    Flash flood and urban drainage

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    intense rain on low-permeability, hyper-arid ground [24]
    Exposure
    85% of residents in flood-prone, low-lying areas [24]
    Vulnerability
    drainage built for rare rain [24]
    Capacity
    Tasreef drainage programme; cell-broadcast alerts [27] [33]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-ARE-ENE-004

    Fuel and power supply under peak demand

    Expert inputEQL 2

    Driver
    summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
    Exposure
    power, desalination, cooling
    Vulnerability
    gas 68% of generation [17]
    Capacity
    5.6 GW of nuclear and 7.9 GW of renewables in service [17] [19]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-ARE-HTW-01

Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
  2. 2ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
  3. 3CLI → HLTheat load rises on outdoor workers around the midday break
  4. 4WAT → HLTwater for drinking and cooling is stretched
  5. 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity are stretched
  6. 6FINcosts fall on utilities and the public budget

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The United Arab Emirates matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core mifumo. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·ModerateStrongModerateModerate
ENEStrong·ModerateStrongWeak
FOOStrongWeak·StrongWeak
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOModerateWeakModerateModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises cooling demand, and desalination needs the same powerInferred
  2. CLI → INFrecord rain met inadequate drainage and abandoned cars in DubaiReported
  3. WAT → FOOgroundwater mainly irrigates crops in Abu DhabiReported
  4. ENE → WATgas and nuclear power supply pumping and desalinationInferred
  5. TRD → FINfuel exports bring revenue while the non-oil fiscal balance is in deficitReported

05 · Findings

Every finding of United Arab Emirates.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of United Arab Emirates
IDEditionSector or systemHaliStatement
CLI-001United Arab EmiratesCLI Climate forcing ReportedNet greenhouse-gas emissions were 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019; energy gave 164.1 Mt, industrial processes 29.6 Mt and waste 5.6 Mt, and land use removed 6.6 Mt.
CLI-002United Arab EmiratesCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 2050; the 2023 update used a 2019 base of 225 Mt, so the base has been revised.
ENE-003United Arab EmiratesENE Nishati ReportedGas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%; total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.
ENE-004United Arab EmiratesENE Nishati ReportedRenewable capacity was 7,907 MW at the end of 2025, against 6.8 GW in 2024 as reported to the UNFCCC; the national aim is 22 GW by 2031.
WAT-005United Arab EmiratesWAT Maji ReportedInternal renewable freshwater is 14.9 m³ per person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge.
WAT-006United Arab EmiratesWAT Maji ReportedTreated wastewater reuse reached 77% against a 95% aim for 2036, and the national demand programme reports 513 million m³ saved; a current national share of desalinated supply is not bound.
FOO-007United Arab EmiratesFOO Chakula ReportedAt least 80% of food consumed is imported; arable land is 0.8% of land area and cereal production was about 20,000 tonnes in 2024.
CLI-008United Arab EmiratesCLI Climate forcing ReportedRain of 254 mm fell in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024, the highest since records began in 1949; four deaths were reported in the UAE, and 85% of residents live in flood-prone, low-lying areas.
HLT-009United Arab EmiratesHLT Afya ReportedA reading of 51.6 °C was reported at Sweihan on 24 May 2025, and outdoor work stops from 12:30 to 15:00 between 15 June and 15 September; no national heat-illness series is bound.
BIO-010United Arab EmiratesBIO Bioanuwai ReportedProtected areas covered 19.2% of land and 12.0% of marine waters in 2025; Abu Dhabi directed an expansion to 20% of its land in October 2025.
FIN-011United Arab EmiratesFIN Fedha ReportedReal GDP grew 4.0% in 2024 and the IMF projects 4.8% for 2025 and 5.0% for 2026; fuel was 68% of merchandise exports in 2023, and the non-oil primary balance is a deficit of 15.1% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025.
SYS-012United Arab EmiratesSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a humid summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for United Arab Emirates.

The desks’ editions for United Arab Emirates
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceUnited Arab Emirates 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: United Arab Emirates 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: United Arab Emirates 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: United Arab Emirates 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Masahihishoafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-ARE-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/are/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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